Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

You heard it here first.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

if wagering money on elections wasn't illegal, I would certainly be open to a large* wager on the subject at hand.

*in worthless, but numerous in digit, fiat money

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Since when was betting on elections any more illegal than the hundred other things we bet on here? If GCYW is interested, this offer is still open. I'm not even requiring Paul to win.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Since when was betting on elections any more illegal than the hundred other things we bet on here? If GCYW is interested, this offer is still open. I'm not even requiring Paul to win.

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I'm a bit confused on your terms. Am I reading it right that you're offering 1:1 on $100, and you win if RP polls less than 14% in NH? I'll take that bet any day!

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Since when was betting on elections any more illegal than the hundred other things we bet on here? If GCYW is interested, this offer is still open. I'm not even requiring Paul to win.

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I'm a bit confused on your terms. Am I reading it right that you're offering 1:1 on $100, and you win if RP polls less than 14% in NH? I'll take that bet any day!

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you want to take the > 14% side? just clarifying.

if yes, speaking theoretically, how many digits' worth of fiat money would be your upper limit?

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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I'm a bit confused on your terms. Am I reading it right that you're offering 1:1 on $100, and you win if RP polls less than 14% in NH? I'll take that bet any day!

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I was offering 12%, but consider this booked.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

for sure.

adanthar,

how many digits? lol I only do friendly betting, but the total max I'd bet would be $500. If Iron already claimed $100, you wanna take the other $400? Consider it booked if so.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

on 14%? yeah, booked unless I find some important law against it (I don't know tbh, if I do I'll PM you well in advance.)

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

lol sucks that my reading comprehension is what made me set the 14% limit. oh well, gambling's fun. and I hope you both lose very badly, but not because of the money! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

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Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.

Religious fundamentalism here we come!

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

gaaaawaeresrfasdcs people are dumb

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were.

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It was MPK, and the numbers 7% NH/5% Iowa. I was going to back MPK because I thought it was a pretty good bet at the time. I wouldn't put any money on that at this point.

I still don't think he'll beat these by much, but clearly since July (when the original bet was offered) Paul has drastically exceeded expectations and gained momentum.

RCP poll averages have Paul at 6.8% in New Hampshire, 4.5% in Iowa. I suspect he'll end up punting in one of those states (Iowa) and pouring resources in the other (NH). So if I had to bet now, I suspect he'd be close to 5% in Iowa and would beat 7% in NH.

But yes, had you taken the bet in July, it would have looked pretty good right about now.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.


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I don't want to hijack this thread, but Huckabee should get his own thread since he is surging in Iowa. However, he is starting to get more scrutiny as he ascends in the polls. His ethics as Governor of Arkansas are being questioned, and the Club For Growth has been hammering him on his record on taxes. However, I discovered that he has received the endorsements of Ted Nugent, Ric Flair, and Chuck Norris. That should put him over the top, imo.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Are most of the Ron Paul supporters on here college students who are surrounded by a fair # of other Paul supporters? In middle America, very few people care about Ron Paul and very few more are going to start caring.

Paul is polling well enough in New Hampshire that he might crack double-digits. The same should be true in Nevada.

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Aparently middle America cares about Huckabee.

Religious fundamentalism here we come!

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Brownback dropping out and Tancredo doing nothing of relevance has left Huckabee the default choice of the conservative Christian crowd. It should have been expected that bloc would coalesce their support around a candidate. Huckabee is that guy. He'll be in the race a while, because of the general dissatisfaction with Romney/Giuliani among those voters; the ABC/WashPo poll that came out recently which demonstrated the Huckabee surge was startling because of how many voters have committed to Huckabee and apparently won't be changing their mind:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

"But almost half of Huckabee's supporters (48 percent) said they would definitely vote for him in January and only a quarter said there was a good chance that they would change their minds before the caucuses. In contrast, just 29 percent of Romney's backers said they would definitely vote for him, while 42 percent said there was a good chance that they could vote for someone else at the caucuses.

The enthusiasm among Huckabee supporters was striking, particularly in a year in which Republicans have been considerably dissatisfied with the field of candidates. Half of those who now back the former Arkansas governor said they are very enthusiastic about him, compared with 28 percent of Romney's backers."

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.

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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

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watch this, Huckabee v Paul at one of the debates. Paul speaks logic, Huckabee speaks powerful words and rhetoric. It's just silly.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Thats what I don't understand. I don't know anyone who has even heard of Huckabee, and yet, he is polling ahead of RP. I admit there must be some bias in my circle, but I certainly believe RP has made bigger waves than Huckabee around the country.
intrade.com lets you bet on politics I believe. They have RP at about 6% right now. If you are betting with Iron for 14%, you might as well take the 6% too. If the trade rises to 12% you'll double up.

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Polling at 14% in NH doesn't mean that RP has a 14% chance of winning the Republican Nomination. I'd love to take 17/3 odds against RP winning the nomination. IMO its probably close to 7% that he wins the nomination right now.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Brownback dropping out and Tancredo doing nothing of relevance has left Huckabee the default choice of the conservative Christian crowd.

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What makes this development even more interesting is the split between the leaders and the flock. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Thompson; Pat Robertson endorsed Guiliani; Romney has a string of endorsements from Conservative Christian leaders. Apparently the actual CC voters aren't paying attention to those endorsements.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Huckabee supports the Fair Tax, does he not? Possibly withdrawl from Iraq, not sure if I remember that right.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Huckabee supports the Fair Tax, does he not? Possibly withdrawl from Iraq, not sure if I remember that right.

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Huckabee supports the Fair Tax, but it's going to have to be like 40% as he also supports funding for everything under the sun from environmentalists to farmers to illegals.

He definitely supports the Republican status quo on Iraq.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Huckabee is a moran.

/discussion about him

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Huckabee supports the Fair Tax, does he not? Possibly withdrawl from Iraq, not sure if I remember that right.

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I was just looking at his website, the section about the Iraq war says:
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General Petraeus and our troops are giving their all to provide a window of opportunity for the Iraq government to succeed, while the Democrats are running for the exit doors.


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Seems pretty clear he wants to keep fighting.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Paul speaks logic, Huckabee speaks powerful words and rhetoric. It's just silly.

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Remember, we're talking about evangelical Christians.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

This clip is being promoted by anti-Huckabee people, especially the Club for Growth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pLOC4krZI4

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Huckabee supports the Fair Tax, does he not? Possibly withdrawl from Iraq, not sure if I remember that right.

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You got it part right. He is getting a lot of support from the Right Wing talk show hosts. Boortz loves him, I think Limbaugh thinks favorably of him. He doesn't support withdrawl from Iraq, I think Paul is the only Republican or Democrat that does. I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart.

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Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart.

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Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now.

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What??

He's still around 8%. lol. You must be looking at something different.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart.

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I'm thinking about putting some money on him now or soon and selling after Iowa.

I waste so much god damned time following this nonsense, I may as well do something with it.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Brownback dropping out and Tancredo doing nothing of relevance has left Huckabee the default choice of the conservative Christian crowd.

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What makes this development even more interesting is the split between the leaders and the flock. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Thompson; Pat Robertson endorsed Guiliani; Romney has a string of endorsements from Conservative Christian leaders. Apparently the actual CC voters aren't paying attention to those endorsements.

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From what I understand, the Huckabee campaign is beating the crap out of everyone else on the ground in Iowa among the conservative Christian activist groups. Huckabee himself stumps all over Iowa. And he's planning on moving his campaign headquarters from Arkansas to Des Moines and hiring even more ground troops. I suspect that partially (if not completely) explains Huckabee's strength in Iowa; while the endorsements from some of the national groups are important, Huckabee has campaign people everywhere in Iowa -- and that's certainly a state where the retail politics of having campaign workers knocking on doors and sitting in with worship small groups and attending coffee hours at churches, etc. matters a lot. Iowa voters are conditioned to having attention lavished on them by campaigns and have come to expect that level of attention before going to the primary caucus and voting for a candidate.

So it's essentially Iowa or bust for Huckabee, and I think the recent poll results show how many resources he's putting into the state.

As far as the wisdom of the strategic calculation, the Iowa bounce propelled Kerry to the nomination in 2004, but meant nothing for Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988. So it's a gamble, for sure. Even if he wins Iowa, he's going to have to scramble very fast to get ready for a multi-state campaign. I'm not sure he's as well-positioned for that right now as Romney or Giuliani, but 2 months is a long time. I think it's the 'right' move for Huckabee because it's likely the only one available to him.

I like the idea of buying up Huckabee until Iowa then dumping afterwards.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now.

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What??

He's still around 8%. lol. You must be looking at something different.

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I don't think so. The "last price" is the current value of the contract.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

That's for Iowa. and 'volume: 42' isn't good enough for serious money [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

forget poker, I wish intrade would get a real customer base. *drool*

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart.

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Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now.

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What??

He's still around 8%. lol. You must be looking at something different.

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He's on intrade at 48% for Iowa. I believe Iron just got confused.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

Ya, I guess Iron was talking about Iowa. I thought we were talking about nomination odds.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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So it's essentially Iowa or bust for Huckabee, and I think the results show how many resources he's putting into the same. As far as the strategic calculation, the Iowa bounce propelled Kerry to the nomination in 2004, but meant nothing for Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988. So it's a gamble, for sure. Even if he wins Iowa, he's going to have to scramble very fast to get ready for a multi-state campaign. I'm not sure he's as well-positioned for that right now as Romney or Giuliani, but 2 months is a long time.


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Huckabee's got a money problem. Even if he wins or finishes a close second in Iowa, he has no time to (a) raise money or (b) actually campagin in NH. Right now he is getting good press. He needs that continue to overcome the lack of campaign funds. It might be better for Huckabee to write off NH. Not his type of state, anyway. Just go from Iowa to South Carolina.

People should have seen this coming when Huckabee did very well in the summer straw poll in Iowa, despite spending a fraction of what Romney spent.

By the way, there was a thread a few months ago about a rape case in Arkansas involving a relative of Bill Clinton. It was suggested that Huckabee intervened inappropriately on behalf of the rapist. He was asked about this on Fox News a few days ago. Of course he claimed he did nothing wrong, but it is an issue that might resurface.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Huckabee's got a money problem. Even if he wins or finishes a close second in Iowa, he has no time to (a) raise money or (b) actually campagin in NH. Right now he is getting good press. He needs that continue to overcome the lack of campaign funds. It might be better for Huckabee to write off NH. Not his type of state, anyway. Just go from Iowa to South Carolina.

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I think this is essentially the problem Pat Robertson had. He had a strong, surprising finish in Iowa in 1988 but then couldn't parlay that into success anywhere else because of various timing and campaign issues (and yes, because he's Pat Robertson). It's hard to pour all of your money and staff into a state, then pack your bags and expect to run a successful multi-state campaign in the matter of a few weeks, no matter how much momentum is gained.

In 2004, Kerry was well-positioned to go right from his surprising victory in Iowa and head to Massachusetts-neighbor New Hampshire (where he had a sizable campaign staff up until a few weeks before Iowa and had huge name recognition) and not miss a beat. If I'm the Huckabee team and I finish strong in Iowa, I follow your advice: I punt in NH and head right to South Carolina. Writing off NH and failing > trying to compete in NH and failing, especially when "trying to compete in NH" means wasting valuable time, energy and resources that could be spent in South Carolina.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

I heard on Fox News that South Carolina has picked the GOP candidate correctly since like forever ago.

Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
 

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Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were.

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I think I am who you are thinking of...I believe I actually offered 1:1 on the under of 7% in NH. But I have to admit Paul has done better than I expected in the intervening months and I would not take that bet any more. I think the 5% in Iowa that I offered before is more or less a push now.