KJs in the BB
 

Online 3-6 game, folded to TAG MP who open raises. The LAGgy SB calls, and the I call with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise, MP threebets, and we all call.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, what is my plan for the rest of the hand, and why?

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I'm leading that turn. Having this checked behind by QQ would be a disaster with all the draws out there. I know he's a TAG and as such he's likely to bet but I still dont' want to risk it. The pot is huge and a bet clearly gives me the best chance to win it.

If villain raises I'm go into calldown mode no matter what SB does. If SB c/3balls I can fold the river UI, methinks. If villain and SB both just call I'm leading anything but a Q, A or heart river. If SB folds and river is a heart, Clarkmeister Theorem FTW.

Tag's hand could possibly be really interesting. His range is pretty narrow. JJ+, AThh+, AJ I guess, so you've got him crushed. If I'm doing my math right, and I like to think I am with my paper and pen, I get this:

4 combos where hero is behind; in all of them he has two outs or less
6 combos where villain has 8 outs or better
22 combos where villain has 3 outs or less

When I have that kind of edge I don't want to get fancy. For the majority of villains range that K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a pretty bad card. Make sure you give yourself a chance to get two bets in with a huge edge.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I'd bet out and call down if I got raised. I'd do this because I feel my hand is strong enough to call a raise profitably, and because giving him a free card on the turn would be a catastrophe. If he just called the turn I'd fire just about any river.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

My first thought was that that there shouldn't be very many hands that MP is going to check on the turn...

Re: KJs in the BB
 

bob. been too long. where have you been? since your knee surgery you've close to disappeared. hope things are well.

good to see you post a hand. seems interesting.

well, it seems to me we just turned a strong hand. we have MP guy's range pretty well defined as top pair or an overpair/big pair. except for JJ and KK we're pretty well ahead of his range. of course we still have the lag to worry about, but his range is wide so we're likely ahead. i guess i'm going to war here. 99, TT, QQ are all a high risk of checking behind here. AK/AJ/AA might even get scared and check as well, esp. if the hold they a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and can't fold to a raise.

if i wasn't worried about the turn checking through too often(in relation to the pot size on this board) i would try to c/r both of them. as is, i'm leading the turn hoping he raises with his AA/AK so i can 3bet.

we're ahead of both of their ranges(even the raising and coldcalling portion). a 3bet and we start having something ot worry about. charge those worse hands(esp. the ones with a heart) to play. fire into that turn.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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been too long. where have you been? since your knee surgery you've close to disappeared. hope things are well.



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Things are fine. I've been grinding, and I just haven't had a lot of interesting hands. Or the interesting ones, have been more of the WTF!? variety.

The thing about this hand, is that we have a pretty strong hand, and you need to find a way to balance, getting value for it, and at the same, time, you don't want to be giving any free cards, because there are a lot of scary cards out there.

I don't know the exact right way to say this, but at this point, you probably have the maximum value your hand is ever going to have. There are so many scary cards on the river that you aren't going to improve you, but that might improve someone else. Any heart, A, Q, T, and 9, all potentially make someone else a better hand, so I think that you need to get the most money in on the turn that you can.

I chose to bet out, and most posters that have responded so far, seem to think that that was the best play. As it turned out, both opponents folded, and although that was a little dissapointing, if one of them folded a baby heart, I probably was a lot better off not seeing the river.

Re: KJs in the BB *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

Re: KJs in the BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tag's hand could possibly be really interesting. His range is pretty narrow. JJ+, AThh+, AJ I guess, so you've got him crushed. If I'm doing my math right, and I like to think I am with my paper and pen, I get this:

4 combos where hero is behind; in all of them he has two outs or less
6 combos where villain has 8 outs or better
22 combos where villain has 3 outs or less

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You're still doing this stuff with pencil and paper? Come on man, get in the game. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I admire your determination though...

fwiw, saying you are ahead of 22 combos isn't giving the whole picture. How many combos are in his range? Is 22 a big % or a small one?

Anyways, those crushed hands represent about half his range, and he's probably not betting any of them with two opponents and one guy calling 2 cold now that hearts have come in. I like a bet as well.

-eric

Re: KJs in the BB
 

How am I supposed to do it? I do have a calculator. Your range thinger costs money. If there's a better way I'd like to know about it. Perhaps is I were properly massaged I could be talked into paying for it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I suppose I could give the actual raw numbers but I was treating it as self explanatory.

I'm putting villain on a range of 32 combos. This is a little esoteric, imo, and the flop threebarrel, I feel, really defines his hand. Villain has three or fewer outs 68.75% of the time in my range. 18.75% of the time villain has 8 outs or better. So villain is only ahead here the 12.5% of the time.

So our edge is big. Ideally, I would want to c/r, but the third heart makes it more likely that villain will check through. I like to lead for many reasons:

-A lot of his range must call a bet and take a look at the river and would likely check behind against two opponents.

-Even if a dangerous river card comes out and our hand is still good it's going to kill our action so we have to get money in the pot NOW.

-I might be wrong about this, but if we bet and villain calls the SB is more likely to peel light because he's closing the action for one bet. very +EV, imo.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

There's like nothing a TAG can cold 3bet the flop that checks behind on this turn. Ever.

I CR( this includes C/3B) if the Tag has AXhh, well life sucks.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

check call both turn and river, unless a heart comes up on the river, then fold. My reasoning for this is the fact that you are caught in between players who are showing strength, one being a PF raiser who may have you beat/redaw at the nut flush, and SB who may be feigning strength on the flop wit a FD.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I missed this one. I can see where you need to bet the turn. You can't worry about the Flush. Thanks

Re: KJs in the BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really interesting hand Bob.

I decided to plugin a range for MP and see where we stand. Of course, there's a bit of art to putting him on a range, but no matter how you slice it, I figure you to be about a 3:1 favorite to have him beaten or tied.

mp range breakdown

Note that of the hands you beat, MP will probably only bet about 25% of the time (aces). Given that, you should bet your hand, even if you intend to call a raise.

Should you call a raise? I think so. Too much risk of being raised by AA with a heart, QQ with a heart, AJ with Ah, etc. I wouldn't 3-bet MP though, because his range does include a big chunk of hands that beat you, so his raise is very believable here.

So I'd say bet / call and call a non-heart, non-ace river. Fold if you bet and it's 2 cold back to you. If you are just called on the turn, bet any non-heart non-ace river. If river is an ace or heart, you should definitely check since you are now way behind his range, and then probably fold, because is he really going to bluff QQ no heart? I doubt it. Exploitable fold for sure, but I think it's best against most players, who will be content to just check behind and hope their Qs hold up.

good luck.
Eric

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Hey Eric,

I tried to tweak the ranges a bit and your site tells me to login, what's up with that?

Looks like a good tool, how do I use it?

Thanks,
Joe

Re: KJs in the BB
 

You have to purchase a membership.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

ok, here are my thoughts.
btw thanks for not posting results
1. TAG only PF raise that has hearts is AhQh. I'd put him on typical TAG AK AQ AJs AA-JJ TT 99 maybe KJS KQs QJs. since he reraised flop can't be TT 99 AK AQ(unless the nuts), so its AA-JJ AJ maybe KJ. you look good vs this combo
2. SB could have bet flush draw, or str8draw, or A8 T8 etc.
He could be chekraising a made flush but you cant give a free card imho.
I'd bet out here on turn i think you are probably good, and cant let 4 flush draw for free. If MP raises and SB makes it 3 I'm gone. If SB chk raises i call and call river
If MP raises and SB folds or calls I would really consider folding except that the pot is so big

brian

Re: KJs in the BB
 

Actually, I did post the results, but the rest of the hand was kind of anticlimatic.

My thought process was along your lines, I thought that my hand was good enough for two bets on the turn, so I would bet and call one raise, but I didn't want to checkraise, and then face three bets. So I bet out, and thne both players folded. That really surprised me.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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if i wasn't worried about the turn checking through too often(in relation to the pot size on this board) i would try to c/r both of them. as is, i'm leading the turn hoping he raises with his AA/AK so i can 3bet.


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how does MP have AK here? He has JJ, or AA, or a flush when he get raised on the turn, quick means 3 betting would be a mistake imo.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

we should CR the turn, because MP isn't going to check behind too much. Specifically, he should check behind pretty much only black QQ or AJ with no heart, and even then he should bet/fold them.

The most likely two outcomes of leading are: getting HU against a better hand, or one bet 3 ways (in which case we miss value)

Also, when it is bet and then raised to the SB, there is little guarantee that he will fold anything we want him to fold.

CR plz.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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we should CR the turn, because MP isn't going to check behind too much.

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I think that checkraising might have been better. I probably win one more bet, and I think the danger of a flush is from the SB, and not MP. If I check, and it goes bet/raise, then I probably have to throw my hand away. If it goes bet/call or fold, and then I raise, I get a lot more value out of a hand when I am most likely ahead.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

7.5bb is a pot that you want to win now. screwing around and checkraising the turn has a higher risk/reward ratio. worst case scenario with a bet: it wins a big pot UI. best case scenario with a c/r: you parlay that it happens to gain a bet on the turn at the cost of losing the pot more often. your c/r has to work perfectly alot of the time for it to be correct. when a pot reaches a certain size, the board is a certain texture, and your holding in relation to your opponents' ranges is of a certain static strength alot of the time winning the pot outright will outweigh the benefits of gaining an extra bet once in 4 or 5 times.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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winning the pot outright will outweigh the benefits of gaining an extra bet once in 4 or 5 times.

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I think a CR works virtually always, not "once in four or 5 times"

Also, the times we win the pot outright with a bet are usually the times that villains are drawing nearly dead against us.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I prefer 4-betting the flop.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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I prefer 4-betting the flop.

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Why? Just because all your decisions are going to be easier afterwards [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]?

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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I prefer 4-betting the flop.

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Are you that 38/17/3.8 guy I see on-line?

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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I prefer 4-betting the flop.

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Why? Just because all your decisions are going to be easier afterwards [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]?

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Because that 3-bet by the pfr is more often weakness than strength. And even if it's strength, you avoid getting raised on the turn by a lot of them once you've 4-bet. The hand becomes infinitely easier to play.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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Because that 3-bet by the pfr is more often weakness than strength. And even if it's strength, you avoid getting raised on the turn by a lot of them once you've 4-bet. The hand becomes infinitely easier to play.

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Hmmmm. Thanks, I just replayed about a 1000 hands in my mind. Of course you're right.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Online 3-6 game, folded to TAG MP who open raises. The LAGgy SB calls, and the I call with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise, MP threebets, and we all call.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, what is my plan for the rest of the hand, and why?

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bet that card and see what happens. We don't want the pfr to check the turn with QQh.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

check raise the turn... if preflp raiser bets and sb raises teh turn i would fold with 2 coming to me..... If i get threebet on the turn i am calling down though...

Re: KJs in the BB
 

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I prefer 4-betting the flop.

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Why? Just because all your decisions are going to be easier afterwards [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]?

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Because that 3-bet by the pfr is more often weakness than strength.

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huh?