NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Hey.

I was wondering if anyone else has been making these correlated parlays? For yesterday on games with a spread >or = to 25% of the total the plays of fav+ over and dog+ under went 4-0. I haven't been playing these every week but I have gone like 9-1 this season on these.

Anyone have an easy way to check the last couple seasons to see how well these parlays work? I am guessing that just like in college with the favs/overs and dogs/unders of > 33% that these hit quite a bit. Since totals are lower in the NFL I play these at the 25% mark instead.

Any input is appreciated. Looks like around 5 games might qualify for this week also.

-Brendan

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Brendan,

how do you decide to take the fave+over or dog+under side of this? Wouldn't the dog+under on Buff have lost?

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

You play both fav+over and dog+under just like a lot of people had been playing on the college games.

1 unit to win 2.6 units on each side. So you either win 1.6 units or lose 2 units on these plays.

-Brendan

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

The 4 games this week were.

Pats/Bills -16 o/u 47
Pitt/NYJ -10 o/u 40
KC/Indy -14.5 o/u 41.5
Car/GB -10 o/u 37

Betting each fav/o and dog/u for 1 unit and you would have been +6.4 units.

2 favs+overs won and 2 dogs+unders won.

-Brendan

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Brendan,

I've been doing a bit of research on correlated parlays, actually. It shouldn't be too hard to put the data together from Covers and backtest it for a couple of years. Hopefully I'll find some more time to gather the data with what free time I have left. Thanks for shining a light on it.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

[ QUOTE ]
Brendan,

I've been doing a bit of research on correlated parlays, actually. It shouldn't be too hard to put the data together from Covers and backtest it for a couple of years. Hopefully I'll find some more time to gather the data with what free time I have left. Thanks for shining a light on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Samples are relatively small IIRC and checking edge on these is pretty ew.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

I am gonna try and get some info so I can go back 4 or 5 years to see. The games that Q in the NFL will be a small sample size which is a downside to this. I bet a few of these at the end of last season and they were hitting at a good clip also.

The only time this has been mentioned on some of the other SB forums the regs who had been hammering the College correlated parlays were being hush hush about these also and I got a couple PMs to just let it go. I figured I would let those with good NFL databases over the last few years have this info to see if anything is there to exploit.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

I think you are just trying to find a hidden pattern that is not there.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Somewhat on-topic and amusing:

YOUR WAGER
HAS BEEN REJECTED

You have at least one combination of selections on the same contest that is highly correlated. This may include a favorite and total with a high spread and a relatively low total OR an underdog and total with a high spread and a relatively low total.

SELECTION CONTEST
NEW ENGLAND -22.0 PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ENGLAND
OVER 50.5 PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ENGLAND

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are just trying to find a hidden pattern that is not there.

[/ QUOTE ]

We've had this discussion on this board at least 2x. There is no +EV there. Some books ban these parlays due to cfb games where you can have Okla -42, Total=48 and in those cases there is +EV on a correlated parlay, so they ban them all rather than waste time figuring which is which.

There is no +EV on AFC-14, Total =56. NFL is not college LDO. You can run hot over short sample size, but you're simply data-mining. Besides, what if the value is Fav/Under? Or Dog/Over? Then you're explicitly making -EV bets.

Your matrix of payouts is: +1.6, -2, -2, +1.6.
Wouldn't a 2-team "IF-bet" have higher EV anyway? If AFC-14 wins 20, then Over 56 wins 40/[38 I guess]. I haven't looked at IF-bets in years so I'm not 100% sure. I know you can do If-bets on game[s] at same time or even If on 4pm with 2nd leg on 1pm.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

This is the outcome of blindly betting this in the NFL since 1990 based on the repole numbers. The criterion was where spread >= (1/4)(total). This only counts weeks 1-9 of 2007 and the regular season only for all other years. The 3 numbers are wins-losses-halfwins. A half win is where you win half of the parlay and tie the other half.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Season Over/Fav Under/Dog
2007 6-7-0 2-10-1
2006 10-27-1 9-28-1
2005 5-19-0 8-16-0
2004 3-13-1 4-13-0
2003 4-15-0 6-13-0
2002 6-16-0 4-18-0
2001 5-16-0 2-17-2
2000 8-20-1 6-22-1
1999 6-20-0 8-17-1
1998 8-18-0 4-22-0
1997 3-17-1 4-16-1
1996 6-16-1 4-19-0
1995 4-21-0 9-16-0
1994 9-15-0 9-15-0
1993 12-31-0 15-28-0
1992 8-44-1 15-38-0
1991 8-23-0 7-24-0
1990 3-20-1 7-17-0
TOTAL 114-358-7 123-349-7
</pre><hr />

Here are the games this year that qualified (weeks 1-9).

2007 Weeks 1-9:
Week 2: Buf(3) +10 @ Pit(26) o/u39 [loss]
Week 2: NJY(13) +10 @ Bal(20) o/u 33 [half]
Week 2: Oak(20) +10 @ Den(23) o/u 37 [win]
Week 2: KC(10) +12 @ Chi(20) o/u 34.5 [win]
Week 3: SF(16) +9.5 @ Pit(37) o/u 38 [win]
Week 3: Buf(7) +16.5 @ NE(38) o/u 41 [win]
Week 4: Stl(7) +13 @ Dal(35) o/u 47 [loss]
Week 4: KC(30) +12 @ Sdg(16) o/u 38.5 [loss]
Week 5: Cle(17) +15.5 @ NE(34) o/u 48 [win]
Week 6: Stl(3) +9 @ Bal(22) o/u 36.5 [loss]
Week 7: NE(49) -15.5 @ Mia(28) o/u 49.5 [win]
Week 8: Was(7) +14.5 @ NE(52) o/u 46.5 [win]
Week 9: Bal(7) +9.5 @ Pit(38) o/u 36 [win]

With standard payouts of +2.6 for a win, -1 for a loss and +0.91 for a half win, it looks like blindly doing this for the NFL is -EV. This year with the New England anomaly it appears to be doing well.

Edit: I was improperly counting half wins where the spread was tied. If under/dog tied, I was not counting this as a loss for over/win.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Seems std. I draw my cutoffs for parlays higher than 25%.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Does raising the cutoff to 33% or greater drastically change the outcome?

Naj I def understand that with your example there isn't anything correlated about that type of parlay. Also I didn't see any threads talking about this this season or last season so sorry for bringing this up.

LogistX thanks for running those numbers. Looks like there isn't any correlation in the NFL like there is in NCAA football. At least not at the 25% threshold.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does raising the cutoff to 33% or greater drastically change the outcome?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll check when I get home from work. In theory, the higher the %, the better the parlay should be. I suspect that blindly betting will almost always be -EV. However, a look at the historical covariance may be a good thing. If you plan to bet one side anyway (meaning you believe the probability is better than 52.4% at -110), parlaying it may be better.

Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
 

Here's the numbers again where spread &gt;= (1/4)(total). I added two extra columns. The extra columns attempt to capture the correlation between the events. "Fav" shows the win/loss/tie record of the over given that the favorite covers. "Dog" shows the win/loss/tie record of the under given that the underdog covers.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Season Over/Fav Under/Dog Fav Dog
2007 6-7-0 2-10-1 6-2-0 2-2-1
2006 10-27-1 9-28-1 10-6-1 9-11-1
2005 5-19-0 8-16-0 5-5-0 8-6-0
2004 3-13-1 4-13-0 3-2-1 4-7-0
2003 4-15-0 6-13-0 4-5-0 6-4-0
2002 6-16-0 4-18-0 6-5-0 4-7-0
2001 5-16-0 2-17-2 5-6-0 2-6-1
2000 8-20-1 6-22-1 8-8-0 6-5-0
1999 6-20-0 8-17-1 6-5-0 8-6-0
1998 8-18-0 4-22-0 8-5-0 4-9-0
1997 3-17-1 4-16-1 3-5-0 4-7-1
1996 6-16-1 4-19-0 6-6-0 4-6-0
1995 4-21-0 9-16-0 4-3-0 9-9-0
1994 9-15-0 9-15-0 9-3-0 9-3-0
1993 12-31-0 15-28-0 12-7-0 15-9-0
1992 8-44-1 15-38-0 8-9-1 15-20-0
1991 8-23-0 7-24-0 8-8-0 7-8-0
1990 3-20-1 7-17-0 3-9-1 7-4-0
TOTAL 114-358-7 123-349-7 114-99-4 123-129-4
</pre><hr />

Here's the numbers where spread &gt;= (1/3)(total).
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Season Over/Fav Under/Dog Fav Dog
2007 1-1-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-0-0
2006 2-5-1 2-6-0 2-0-1 2-3-0
2005 1-6-0 3-4-0 1-1-0 3-2-0
2004 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-1-0 0-1-0
2003 0-3-0 0-3-0 0-2-0 0-1-0
2002 0-3-0 1-2-0 0-1-0 1-1-0
2001 2-3-0 0-3-2 2-0-0 0-1-1
2000 4-6-0 2-8-0 4-3-0 2-1-0
1999 2-6-0 4-4-0 2-2-0 4-0-0
1998 2-3-0 0-5-0 2-1-0 0-2-0
1997 1-5-1 2-5-0 1-3-0 2-0-0
1996 0-4-0 2-2-0 0-0-0 2-2-0
1995 1-7-0 3-5-0 1-1-0 3-3-0
1994 3-6-0 4-5-0 3-1-0 4-1-0
1993 4-10-0 6-8-0 4-2-0 6-2-0
1992 3-24-0 6-21-0 3-7-0 6-11-0
1991 3-11-0 5-9-0 3-4-0 5-2-0
1990 1-10-0 4-7-0 1-3-0 4-3-0
TOTAL 30-115-2 45-100-2 30-32-1 45-36-1
</pre><hr />

Firstly, it definitely looks like the spread being 1/4 of the total is not enough. If the probabilities of the events were 50% and there was no correlation (on average) you would expect about a 1:3 ratio of wins to losses. 237-707-14 is almost exactly that.

When the spread is 1/3 of the total, you start to see something. It looks like the under and the dog may have some correlation. Since even when the favorite covers, the game fails to go over roughly 50%, there does not seem to be much of a correlation between over and favorite here. Anyone want to chime in on statistical significance? Or is this like seeing a pattern where none exists?