Huge Value in CFL
 

I have found some serious value on betting the Grey Cup in the CFL. I do not want to post it publicly so PM me if your interested in betting some CFL football. I'm pretty sure this is a mistake on the sportsbooks part but some of you would know better than me...thank.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

How big of a mistake?

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

My guess (and I know nothing about CFL) is that BC is favored by 7.5 and the road team (not BC in this instance)has won every game (4 games) this year between these 2 teams. It should also be noted that the home team (BC) is coming off of a bye week. Games at BC, Sask has won by 9 and 12. BC won by 30 and 3 on the road.

Who cares the CFL is weird, you get a point for kicking the ball into the end zone.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Let's say this is the NFL confrence finals.
Indy is at home vs Pitts (NE ruins it, their too good)
Dalls is at home vs Gbay

Would you bet Pitts at +950 to win the superbowl?
Would you bet Gbay at +1500 to win Superbowl?

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

jes

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

There is a sportsbook out there offering those odds on the road teams in CFL this weekend.....that is my good deed for the day..gogogogogogogogo

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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How big of a mistake?

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This is a very important question. If this is an obvious line error at the book, expect the bet to be voided should your bet win. The bet could be extremely -EV unless the book has already verified that the line is not in error.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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How big of a mistake?

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This is a very important question. If this is an obvious line error at the book, expect the bet to be voided should your bet win. The bet could be extremely -EV unless the book has already verified that the line is not in error.

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No, other books are right there.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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No, other books are right there.

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Then OP should feel free to post his thoughts on the game openly since other books have similar lines.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Are you guys saying this isn't a mistake?

Here are they're odds to win the Grey Cup...

TO +120
BC+110
Sask. +950
Winn. +1500

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Are you guys saying this isn't a mistake?


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Do not bet on error lines. E-mail the book to verify, otherwise they might void your bet should it win, and keep your money if your bet loses.

That being said, which is the bet that you are referring to as being in error?

TO +120
BC+110
Sask. +950
Winn. +1500

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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I don't see how this plan can fail.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

guys he's Canadian, he must know Canadian football better than a bunch of Yank line shopping donks.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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Where do you find a book to parlay the ML's on Tor and BC? I see spreads only.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

wow SSK at +950 is such a good line

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

fwiw, BC is -7.5 and Toronto is -6.5

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

not sure what the deal is with these lines, and I have limited knowledge of teams at this point. Toronto is hosting the Grey Cup, so they would HFA vs Saskatchewan (but Sask has batshit insane fans ... only travelling fans in the CFL).

As one would expect in a small league it's not uncommon for the teams getting the 1st round bye to get upset. 18 game seasons with 8-9 teams in the league and you get a chance to pad your win totals vs certain types of opponents

Did some digging, since 1990
Road teams in the Div finals are 11-23
7 times the Grey cup winner was a Div finals road team.

Home teams in the Div final who are the Grey Cup host have a history of choking: 2-5 since 1990 ... but I'm pretty I've read that historically they have always fared poorly. This years game is basically sold out though so there's no excess stress on TO to get in so this thing can be a financial success.

Reg season records:
BC 14-3-1
SASK 12-6
TORONTO 11-7
WINNIPEG 10-7-1

TOR started the year like 2-6 though when Mike Bishop from KSU (yes his football IQ is still as bad now as when he was with New England ... hell of an arm though). BC played their 3rd string QB most of the year (Jarius Jackson - tOSU right?) and still won a tonne of games. Heard on the radio during my commute that Sask is really beat up on D and at RB.

My guesstimate on potential spreads for the final:
BC -2 vs Toronto, -10 vs Winnipeg
Tor -5 vs Sask
Sask -3 vs Winnipeg

I'd be inclined to make a small play on both road teams, but I have no way of quantifying the edge. I don't think the value is "huge". No idea on the spread to moneyline conversion in the CFL either.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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Where do you find a book to parlay the ML's on Tor and BC? I see spreads only.

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A 6 point teas on the favs would do the same thing. You get 1 to 1 that way where when they put the moneylines out you may not get that. There is that remote chance that BC only wins by a point and you get skrewed every way. I still think the value is high and the road teams deserve a bet to win it all. The one thing I know about the CFL is that anything can happen.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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not sure what the deal is with these lines, and I have limited knowledge of teams at this point. Toronto is hosting the Grey Cup, so they would HFA vs Saskatchewan (but Sask has batshit insane fans ... only travelling fans in the CFL).

As one would expect in a small league it's not uncommon for the teams getting the 1st round bye to get upset. 18 game seasons with 8-9 teams in the league and you get a chance to pad your win totals vs certain types of opponents

Did some digging, since 1990
Road teams in the Div finals are 11-23
7 times the Grey cup winner was a Div finals road team.

Home teams in the Div final who are the Grey Cup host have a history of choking: 2-5 since 1990 ... but I'm pretty I've read that historically they have always fared poorly. This years game is basically sold out though so there's no excess stress on TO to get in so this thing can be a financial success.

Reg season records:
BC 14-3-1
SASK 12-6
TORONTO 11-7
WINNIPEG 10-7-1

TOR started the year like 2-6 though when Mike Bishop from KSU (yes his football IQ is still as bad now as when he was with New England ... hell of an arm though). BC played their 3rd string QB most of the year (Jarius Jackson - tOSU right?) and still won a tonne of games. Heard on the radio during my commute that Sask is really beat up on D and at RB.

My guesstimate on potential spreads for the final:
BC -2 vs Toronto, -10 vs Winnipeg
Tor -5 vs Sask
Sask -3 vs Winnipeg

I'd be inclined to make a small play on both road teams, but I have no way of quantifying the edge. I don't think the value is "huge". No idea on the spread to moneyline conversion in the CFL either.

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Close... Jarious Jackson is from Notre Dame.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Pinny shows moneylines of Toronto at -300 and BC at -310 for this weekend's games. I think the moneylines and spreads of -6.5 and -7.5 are fairly correct, though if you put a gun to my head I would bet the dog in either matchup.

I don't know if those future bets are a mistake, but if they aren't there is definitely HUGE value on both WPG and SASK as you would be paid nowhere near those numbers by parlaying the moneylines.

Wpg pays +270 in the semi and probably around the same if they play BC and less (only about a 4-6 pt dog) if they play Sask. This would be +1000 against BC and less against Sask.

Sask pays +280 in the semi and I see them being less then a 3pt dog against Toronto and a fave should Wpg win. There is definite value on them at +950 to win the whole thing.

IMO, that future bet is not an obvious book error, but it's close and there is definite dog value and worth asking the book about before betting it.

By the way, IMO BC is by far the strongest team in the CFL, and I have Sask as being slightly stronger then Toronto. If I were to do power rankings with BC as a 10, I would rank Sask as a 6, Toronto as a 5 and Wpg as a 2.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

I just teased Tor and BC down to -0.5 and -1.5 in the division finals since that is quite a bit better then parlaying the moneylines.

Watch BC win by 1 now.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

It only takes a rouge (1-pt kick into the end-zone) to win a game.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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Winnipeg won. Nice call there.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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Winnipeg won. Nice call there.

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Saskia won, 2 for 2.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Saskia won, 2 for 2.

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am i watching tape delay??.... bets look amazing right now though

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Still 1 more quarter to go, but they are looking solid

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Still 1 more quarter to go, but they are looking solid

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2 min 41 sec left. Sask up by 9...

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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Well the 2 teams that are big dogs...If these lines are correct then i'd hammer on both of them. Then i'd bet a parlay with BC and TO to win this weekend to hedge a bit.

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Winnipeg won. Nice call there.

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Saskia won, 2 for 2.

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Both dogs won. Congrats OP.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

nice hit OP ... tagged along ftw boop boop!

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Unnnnghhhh, I went to the BC / Sask game and didn't even think to check the lines or this forum. I'm a Sask fan too and would have been them to win the cup anyways.

Sask at +950 (or whatever it was) was riiiiidiculous. They had the 2nd best record in the league ffs.

Eagerly awaiting to see the line on the Grey Cup now.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Sorry you missed out Decks...

Good Cup odds before the games.

I got 9-1 on Sask. at WSEX.

Wpg was 10-1.
The jokes were BC at 1-1 and TO at 7-5. ugh.

I'm sure Sask will now be about 3-5 or 4-5.


Rainbow...

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Ya, things worked out nicely. I was really happy to see Sask win after Winny won because BC would have been huge favs over Winny without their QB (broke his arm in 3rd quarter). I may make a bet on Sask but I figure the moneyline will be too high for it to be worth hedging. I see no other result than Sask winning the Grey Cup. A great day for all Rider fans.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Very nice work OP, tailed you on this.

There must be a way of making more money though here.
I had 1u @ +950 on Sask, and 1u @ +1500 on Winnipeg

Saskatchewan being huge fave (-11.5) vs Winny now with injuries, shouldn't we hedge by betting 5.5 units on the Sask ML?

If Winny were +150 dogs or better, we should let it ride, but they won't be so shouldn't we hedge here?

Someone who knows how to calculate this stuff better than me should chime in.

Also, anyone know a book that has/will have moneylines available on this game?

5Dimes, BM, and WSEX have/will have point spreads available, but ML's weren't available last week.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Disregard my previous post.

After more thought, if the Sask ML is like -650, you would be risking 5.5u to win like .8 units. Probably better off letting it ride and hoping Winnipeg can upset for an extra 5.5 units.

~17% chance at 15u is better than the extra guaranteed profit.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

The moneyline was -420 when I saw it yesterday. I was going to bet it but I really think Sask will win by a lot so I dont find it all that worth it. I have sask -9.5 for 3 units and a 2 team, 5 points teaser of Sask -6.5 and under 54.5. I really dont see these teams putting up a lot of points. I actually dont see winnipeg scoring double digits.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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I actually dont see winnipeg scoring double digits.

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Someone on Toronto said that exact same thing before last game. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

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I actually dont see winnipeg scoring double digits.

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Someone on Toronto said that exact same thing before last game. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I'm only saying that because their QB is out and the back up would have trouble starting on a college team. I'm not knocking Winnipeg, im just not expecting their new QB to do anything substantial.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

Moneyline is now -450 at Pinny.

Re: Huge Value in CFL
 

yeah, I dont know if there is any value at +410 for wpg either with the new QB and all.

it is just such an unknown.