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-   -   Do You Fold the River (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=545901)

scott2130 11-14-2007 09:29 AM

Do You Fold the River
 
PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (8.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ?

Fadook 11-14-2007 09:32 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Bet/fold the river. As played I call.

LateFlag 11-14-2007 09:36 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Bet/Fold &gt; Check/Call &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&g t;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt ; Check/Fold

Douglas Leslie 11-14-2007 09:43 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Unless I know the pre-flop raise is likely to be a bit loose, I just call here.
Why check the river? I prefer to bet and fold if I get raised.

LukeSLTS 11-14-2007 09:52 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Any read on villain?

I would have to be playing against the rockiest of rocks to fold here. As played this is a clear call. I disagree with the other responses so far that want a bet/fold on the river. I prefer the check/call here against many villains because that card is a great card for the villain to run a bluff with.

KaatzMeow 11-14-2007 10:40 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
I would call UTG1'raise Preflop since you equity is about 30% given the ranges of UTG1 &amp; the cold call by CO.

The Flop is good.

The Turn is good.

On the River I check/call since CO comes alive and what hand does he call that you beat?

LateFlag 11-14-2007 10:43 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
On the River I check/call since CO comes alive and what hand does he call that you beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any A. Any J. Any 3. Any pocket underpair he called the earlier streets with.

Mitke 11-14-2007 11:09 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
* g *

As played, no - I don't fold the river.

Without reads I assume he is just betting with an A when you show weakness. A flush is possible with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). If he likes to call 3-bets cold with KQ/KJ preflop or doesn't raise turn with AK then you would like to play with him in the future as well.

Bet the river. I think you can crying call a raise too if you have any reads he's capable of bluffing.

EDIT: he could be betting any of his holdings on the river when you show weakness.

chr1s82p 11-14-2007 11:33 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
what can you say about the ranges? it is micro-stakes and AQs is a good starting hand for a reraise preflop when you don't know anything about your opponents, imo.

scott2130 11-14-2007 12:34 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
I 3-bet to isolate the UTG player. I have been running bad and figured with AQs I had better chances heads up.

As for reads, this is .5/1 and they play anything, sometimes correctly.

scott2130 11-14-2007 12:36 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
If you bet fold the river, how many times can you do this at the same table before the other players notice and start bluffing at you? Aren't you concerned this will make you an easy mark?

chr1s82p 11-14-2007 12:53 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
but when you have the best hand you would also bet. how can your opponent figure out what you are holding at a given point of time then?

bozlax 11-14-2007 01:03 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Posting blind: Almost never.

Having read your post: Folding the river, as you played this hand, would be a huge error. Checking, tho, was an even bigger error; this probably should've been a bet/call, depending on your read of Villan.

bozlax 11-14-2007 01:08 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you bet fold the river, how many times can you do this at the same table before the other players notice and start bluffing at you? Aren't you concerned this will make you an easy mark?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that micro-donks pay attention. You also assume that you'll be at the same table with a micro-donk that's paying attention for long enough for him to see you do this enough times for him to notice. You also assume that none of those times you'll call or re-pop his raise ftw, puting his read in the shitter.

In short: metagame is meaningless in micro games.

stm

scott2130 11-14-2007 01:29 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
but when you have the best hand you would also bet. how can your opponent figure out what you are holding at a given point of time then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions.

He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river.

Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand.

LateFlag 11-14-2007 01:40 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions.

He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river.

Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all fine except that you're giving your opponent way too much credit.

Villain is already known to be an donkey because only donkeys call three cold on the flop. It follows from this that villain wasn't spending a lot of time deducing that you must have a made hand by the river. He was just thinking about whatever it is donkeys think about during the hand, which probably involves little cartoon figures dancing around in a thought bubble or something. On the river, you checked to him and he interrupted his donkey-dreams to think "I have an ace + there's an ace on board = bet." Or "maybe he'll fold if I bet my 66." And he ended up being right because you out-thought yourself.

Most villains aren't very good poker players. Villains who call three cold on the flop definitely aren't very good poker players. Inferrences that you draw on their behavior that are based on an assumption that your opponent plays like you do will very often be wrong, and they'll very often cost you money. In this case, I'd say there's about a 60% chance that you folded the best hand.

bozlax 11-14-2007 01:57 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

LateFlag's post is excellent. The only thing I'd add is that the above statement is 180 degrees off...the fact that he cold-called 3 bets pf almost completely removes ALL of those hands from consideration (without a read to the contrary), as they'd get capped.

Further, without a read his preflop cold-call should make you think that he's very, very passive, meaning that he'll call way more hands on the river than he'll bet.

The only possible reason for checking this river is if your read is that Villan is aggressive enough to a) bluff-raise if you bet, and b) bet any hand he carried to the river if you check, so if you check it should be with the intention of calling.

scott2130 11-14-2007 02:12 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is all fine except that you're giving your opponent way too much credit.

Villain is already known to be an donkey because only donkeys call three cold on the flop. It follows from this that villain wasn't spending a lot of time deducing that you must have a made hand by the river. He was just thinking about whatever it is donkeys think about during the hand, which probably involves little cartoon figures dancing around in a thought bubble or something. On the river, you checked to him and he interrupted his donkey-dreams to think "I have an ace + there's an ace on board = bet." Or "maybe he'll fold if I bet my 66." And he ended up being right because you out-thought yourself.

Most villains aren't very good poker players. Villains who call three cold on the flop definitely aren't very good poker players. Inferrences that you draw on their behavior that are based on an assumption that your opponent plays like you do will very often be wrong, and they'll very often cost you money. In this case, I'd say there's about a 60% chance that you folded the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I am micro thinking this because it has come up alot and I am loosing most of them. In other words I am running like the worst crap in the world and want to make sure I am playing right and not going on tilt.

I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing.

To end this, I DID CALL on the river and he showed 33 for a rivered fullhouse. He cold called 3 bets pre-flop with 33 and caught his set on the flop. Yes he is a donk but a very lucky one.

I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called. There is the argument that the villian may have folded thinking I had AK for the bigger fullhouse, but that is remote and I would have lost the same amount or more if he raised.

Xylocain 11-14-2007 02:19 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]

I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Dude ... wait wat? He calls 3-cold pf then slowplays a set on two streets on a draw heav board that hits in the middle of your range and only bets when he is checked to boating up on the river? And all of a sudden Villan is expert?

Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, QQ, J3, AJ, A3 any A ... and if he doesn't fold 33 for a 3-bet pf do you really think hes folding a FH on the river? Remember the Yeti theorem ...

bozlax 11-14-2007 02:25 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing.


[/ QUOTE ]

Dude ... wait wat? He calls 3-cold pf then slowplays a set on two streets on a draw heav board that hits in the middle of your range and only bets when he is checked to boating up on the river? And all of a sudden Villan is expert?

Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, any A and ...

[/ QUOTE ]

http://bani.anime.net/o_rly.jpg

scott2130 11-14-2007 02:28 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
Where is that owl when I need it. You realize he would probably have called your river bet with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, QQ, J3, AJ, A3 any A,...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, did you miss the part where I say

[ QUOTE ]
it has come up alot and I am loosing most of them. In other words I am running like the worst crap in the world

[/ QUOTE ]

or maybe when I said

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called.

[/ QUOTE ]

bozlax 11-14-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called. There is the argument that the villian may have folded thinking I had AK for the bigger fullhouse, but that is remote and I would have lost the same amount or more if he raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott, you need to take a break. You're on tilt (altering the way you play your hands due to the results from previous hands). You're actually on some pretty serious monkey-tilt, it sounds like, given the convolutions you've gone through in this thread, and the highly suspect assumptions you're making about Villans' thought-processes.

And, fwiw, the argument that Villan might have folded his boat thinking you had a better boat is completely specious...a) the guy cold-called 3 pf with a small pair, 2) nobody ever folds a boat on the river in micro games, and iii. you bet the river because he will call with worse hands, not because he will fold better ones.

bozlax 11-14-2007 02:33 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
Dude, did you miss the part where I say

[ QUOTE ]
it has come up alot and I am loosing most of them. In other words I am running like the worst crap in the world

[/ QUOTE ]

or maybe when I said

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that bet/calling the river is the optimal play but due to the way I am running I check/called.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...look one post up. The fact that you've lost a few hands is meaningless, except inasmuch as it's affecting the way you're playing new hands.

36CampusAve 11-14-2007 02:38 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
:g:

I call. Your check on river is gonna make villian bluff enuf to make your call ok.

scott2130 11-14-2007 02:45 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that you've lost a a few hands is meaningless, except inasmuch as it's affecting the way you're playing new hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

If it was only "a few hands" I wouldn't have posted it. It has been happening this way 90 out of a 100 hands for 5 months straight.

I am suprised nobody asked me for my screen name so they can pick up the bucket loads of bets I am dumping.

Sorry, I am ssooooooo frustrated with poker because of this. I do appreciate your respones and tonight when I am not at work I am going to post ALL of my hands in a 30 min session for you to look at. So please stay tuned .

Aaron W. 11-14-2007 02:48 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I am ssooooooo frustrated with poker because of this. I do appreciate your respones and tonight when I am not at work I am going to post ALL of my hands in a 30 min session for you to look at. So please stay tuned .

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't. Just save it for a review session.

scott2130 11-14-2007 02:50 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
When is the next review session?

Xylocain 11-14-2007 02:55 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]

If it was only "a few hands" I wouldn't have posted it. It has been happening this way 90 out of a 100 hands for 5 months straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, just call the river and you'll break even DUCY [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I am ssooooooo frustrated with poker because of this. I do appreciate your respones and tonight when I am not at work I am going to post ALL of my hands in a 30 min session for you to look at. So please stay tuned .

[/ QUOTE ]

eh, you might not want to do that unless you have a fetish for trainwrecks. Take a few days off srsly -- you are going to tilt away even more. And think about what your first statement I quoted means. Do you realize what your win rate would be if you won 90 out of 100 hands like this [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] If you cant live with that then switch to NL -- fewer suck outs ????? profit.

00Snitch 11-14-2007 06:56 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
I bet fold the river, but I think I do that too often without really understanding what I am doing.

Mitke 11-15-2007 02:52 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
[ QUOTE ]
I maybe over thinking but at the same time I think you are under estimating today's .5/1 players. 2 years ago I would agree with you, but today IMO, there are far less donks like the ones you are describing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this comment at least to the extent that games have been getting tougher on all levels I've played after the UIGEA. That includes 0.50/1 when UIGEA happened.

Nevertheless, Villain in this hand is a donkey.

maverickai 11-15-2007 10:59 AM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
grunching...
have to bet out on the river. you don't wanna miss a bet if you're ahead, and for all u know, he might be holding QJ, waiting to hit a straight on the river. bet/fold is a line to take.

rhayder 11-15-2007 12:17 PM

Re: Do You Fold the River
 
Grunge:

The second king was scarry but they might not have a king so I think this is a for sure call.


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