88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

My image is very solid/tight. I've only shown down AA and KK twice. Villian1 has been raising a bit, but not maniacal. Villian2 is new to table. It is evident that the shortie BB is sitting out. We are ~100 players from the money. What's the best way to play here?

Play safe and just call and hope to hit a set?
-or-
Reraise to 2100 or so... what if that gets called... what do you do on particular flops?
-or-
Reraise all in?

FullTiltPoker Game #4170246596: Midnight Madness!
120/240 Ante 25
Seat 1: (4,175)
HERO SB (6,335)
BB (405), is sitting out
Seat 4: (8,540)
Seat 5: (4,245)
Villian 1: (5,677)
Villian 2: (3,675)
Seat 8: (12,849)
Seat 9: (2,275)


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO in SB [8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
2 folds, villian1 raises to 700, villian2 calls 700, 3 folds, HERO ???

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I'm going to reraise to about 2,800 here.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

How do you play various flops if that RR is just called? Your stack will be ~ the size of the pot. All rag flops? Axx flops? Kxx flops? Broadway flops? just to name a few... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I'm probably shoving most of the flops. Do you advocate just calling preflop or shoving? My first choice is a normal raise, but I think my second choice would be calling and hoping to flop a set.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

Call, you're getting 4.3:1 plus implied odds to hit your set. Stack is solid enough to not go gaga over this hand. If you do decide to raise, and are called, you now have a stack just over 1/2 of what the pot would be, OOP and feeling very committed.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call, you're getting 4.3:1 plus implied odds to hit your set. Stack is solid enough to not go gaga over this hand. If you do decide to raise, and are called, you now have a stack just over 1/2 of what the pot would be, OOP and feeling very committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

check/fold anything but a set?

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I wouldn't say anything but a set, but I'd have to see a board. If the flop is something like J 5 2, I'd consider leading with a probe of 800-1000 or so. If its lower than an 8, I'd still consider leading, though a bit more, because c/r seems a bit expensive in this spot.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I think this is quite an easy raise/push.

If you raise, I think about 2,5-3k is a good ammount, so you can easily push any flop.

The other possibility is to push right now.

I don't like the idea of calling 88 oop with 16TBBs left, as if you don't hit your set there is hardly any flop you can play multiway.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

Calling is okay & definitely +EV, but I don't think it's optimal.
I think this is a clear shove. The pot is 1400+blinds+antes & you have 6.3K & villians are even shorter! Raising less than a push isn't particularly good. I think this is a clear squeeze with 88 - I'm hoping to pick up the pot uncontested but I'm doing pretty well if I get called as well.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

Calling is fine here. Usually I'm looking for a stack of 10x the raise amount (with both, my stack and villain's stack) to get the odds to play for a set.
Both villains have a stack lower than 7000, but since it's a multiway pot, hero still gets odds to make this a +EV call.

I also like the raise ... but once you raise, you have to go with it. So either push right here or raise to 2000-3000 and shove any flop.

I would go for a 2500 raise and a shove on the flop, as this would give villains a chance to fold bigger PPs because of overcards or fold 2 unimproved picture cards.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I agree with lev that calling here is iffy.

I think this is a nice spot to just shove and take the pot here or flip for a stack.

The other option is a go and go ---> raise, and then shove just about any flop.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

Thanks all

If I dont push but reraise preflop to ~2500 and then get re-reraised AI, am I calling there? Seems like I should get away at that point... or not?

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

If I think initial raiser will fold to a push, I push. If I think he won't, I'll call.


That said, raising anything other than all-in is a leak and shouldn't be done.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I think initial raiser will fold to a push, I push. If I think he won't, I'll call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's you flop plan if you flat? Stop and go?

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is quite an easy raise/push.

If you raise, I think about 2,5-3k is a good ammount, so you can easily push any flop.

The other possibility is to push right now.

I don't like the idea of calling 88 oop with 16TBBs left, as if you don't hit your set there is hardly any flop you can play multiway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read it, Loved it, Totally Agree with it

Always raise here
especially with youre image and youre stack covering both villains

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I think initial raiser will fold to a push, I push. If I think he won't, I'll call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's you flop plan if you flat? Stop and go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play for set value. And I'm going to repeat that raising anything other than all-in is sub-optimal.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

youre not gonna hit sets enough to just flat this in multiway

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

Yes you will. You need to make 3150 in implied odds after hitting a set to make the call +EV. You can make more than that more frequently here.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

A raise to 2100 will likely end up with at least one call so you'll be looking at a pot of about 5000 with 4200 behind and OOP. Now you can't fold no matter what. It's also possible that Villain 2 will just move all-in if the action gets back to him pf. So if Villain 1 did call your raise, he will now call whatever action gets back to him. The last thing you want is to be all-in against both these players.

I think the best result for this hand is to win what's in the pot right now and that means shoving pf and making use of your fold equity. Villain 1 will be pretty sure that Villain 2 will call if he calls so he is in the same predicament of having everyone in the pot and the chance of being knocked out.

Playing this pot against Villain 2 with his two overcards and lots of dead money is a pretty good second choice and is also a likelyhood.

Edit: And by the way, a shove now takes all your decisions away and puts the hard ones into the hands of the villains. Now they can make a mistake by calling with 77 or folding 99.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

I don't like raising. If I had a note that the cold caller was a total donk, than maybe. Otherwise I set mine.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising. If I had a note that the cold caller was a total donk, than maybe. Otherwise I set mine.

[/ QUOTE ]
You know what I don't like about set mining here? It is very possible that either villain could move in on a missed flop with either 77 or AK or a draw and you could be folding a winning hand. That would be a collossal error.

When I set mine, I will use the fit/fold method most of the time. In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

maybe but you can make more by raising here picking up the dead money shoving here forces both villains to decide if they wanna risk their stack against a solid player that only showed down aces and kings

FLAT calling here is way too passive
if youre image is super loose aggressive i would still raise
but then youre argument for flatting is more to use
But
considering youre image and bigger stack this such an easy Raise/shove

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
maybe but you can make more by raising here picking up the dead money shoving here forces both villains to decide if they wanna risk their stack against a solid player that only showed down aces and kings

FLAT calling here is way too passive
if youre image is super loose aggressive i would still raise
but then youre argument for flatting is more to use
But
considering youre image and bigger stack this such an easy Raise/shove

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise here without jamming, you're a moron. I've said it twice, and evidence as to why it's a donk move has been repeated to no avail throughout this thread. You gain absolutely nothing and lose FE. Calling is +EV. That's a fact. It's higher EV IF AND ONLY IF you think the players are too stubborn/tight and will call along with a jam. If less of a +EV situation IF AND ONLY IF you have a strong chance to fold out the initial raiser.

Typically if I want to play in a hand with a pot >20% of my effective stack, I jam as a default.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

It's not like 88 ONLY has set value, either. There are rag flops you can CRAI (or call all-in, whatever) if villain's C-betting almost all of his range.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is so retarded i'm not sure where to begin. There is probably 300+ people left. You really this that playing this one hand has that much significance in your overall outcome in this tournament.

I would prefer to fold this and steal blinds in POS, than flip for half my stack.

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

youre forgetting this image
raising or shoving w/e lets stick with shoving
is so much more EV+ over the long term then
flatcalling for setmining

lets say you win both villains stacks 9200 if you do hit a set (wich is how many times once every 8 times i recall somebody saying?? Correct me if wrong)

now lets say we shove this hand 8 times in this situation
pot is about 1900 with youre SB and antes

so if you shove 8 times you win around 15k
if you hit youre set once in those 8 hands
(again correct me if its not 8) and get full value out of it
youlle win 9200 BUT! every other 7 hands you loose 700 for flatcalling and prob have to fold to the c-bet
thats 4900 down wich means with this set mining


now im no math wiz but i do know that picking up the dead money here is MORE ev+ then set mining in the long run
in this situation

Re: 88 in SB.... squueze?
 

I think someone above said I had 16BBs… I actually have 26BB’s. So what about the following analysis?

Stack versus blinds:
We are at the 120/240/25 level
Hero = 6335 chips or 26BB’s.
Villian1 = 5677 chips or 24BB's
Villain 2 = 3675 or 15BB's.

The action:
Villian 1 raises to ~3BB’s and Villian 2 calls, so when the action gets to me in the SB there is ~3 + ~3 + 1.5 + ~1 = ~8.5BB’s in the pot. Isn’t pushing for effectively 24BB’s (villian1’s stack) to win 8.5BB’s overkill? I’d feel better about a push if I had ~17BB’s.

Alternatively, why can’t I just reraise to 2400 (10BB’s). I think it sends a stronger signal of a big pocket pair, especially with my image at the time. This might be more of a convincing squeeze than a push, causing 99 – JJ to fold? Is a push by me looking more like an AK play and 99 – JJ might be more willing to gamble there?

But would a reraise to 10BB’s give me room to fold if either villain pushes? If villain 1 pushes over the top for a 3rd raise, the pot would have 3+3+2.5+10+21 = 39.5BB’s and I would have to call 11 more BB’s getting ~3.5:1 to call. Nice odds for sure and with my image at the time I think villian1’s range would be JJ+, AK. 88 versus that range is 2:1 against winning, so I have to call and pray for a coinflip. If you take AK out of the range, then 88 is 4:1 against winning and a fold would be warranted. The other consideration though is that I would still have a decent stack if I fold to a villian1 push… 16BB’s which still gives me room to convincingly resteal. Now, if villian1 folds and villian2 pushes, the pot would have 3+3+2.5+10+12 = 30.5BB’s and I would have to instacall for 2 more BB’s.

Finally, the more I think about it… this hand is getting decided preflop. I think neither villain calls a 2400 reraise by me to see a flop. They’re either pushing or folding preflop, so the flop discussion is probably moot.

Thoughts????

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this situation however, folding a missed set, which still could be the best hand at the moment, might be a large enough error to cost you the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

this statement is so retarded i'm not sure where to begin.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well let's look at some numbers. Hero calls and the pot is about 2600. Hero checks flop (flop is two flush and two overcards) Villain 1 moves in on the flop, Villain 2 folds. Now back to Hero who has a hell of a decision. The all-in is for 5000 chips and Hero has about 5500 left.

If he calls and wins, he has around 13000 chips. If he folds he has 5500 chips and if he calls and loses he has 500 chips.

These kind of decisions can make or break your tournament. If you fold a winning hand here, you are passing on around 7500 chips which is 140% of your stack.

If you still think I'm retarded, well this is a free board and I have a thick skin.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

the point is going to flop only makes youre decision more difficult

if you call and you DO have the best hand but there are overs on the board thats only gonna make it harder

shoving preflop or raising to about 3k preflop is way better

as for shoving 24BB in 8,5 BB i dont think thats overkill

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Play safe and just call and hope to hit a set?

[/ QUOTE ]
Set mining with these stacks is -EV. Without having read replies, if anyone is talking about playing for set value, that would be a mistake, since there's no positive value in that play.

[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise to 2100 or so... what if that gets called... what do you do on particular flops?

[/ QUOTE ]

Throwing in like a third of your stack for the privilege of playing OOP with like 1 PSB behind is -EV with 88.

[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the decision, I'm sure I'm folding 66 and lower, shoving TT+, 88 it depends but I can see shoving it and some tables.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is the decision, I'm sure I'm folding 66 and lower, shoving TT+, 88 it depends but I can see shoving it and some tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

With ~17BB's sure, but with 26BB'S? I think the decision is between raising to 10BB's, shoving, or folding... and IMHO raising to 10BB's > shoving > folding. I agree that calling for set value is not a good play. What are your thoughts on my post right before this one?

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

you can't call for set value, whatever the rest of the thread sais.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise to 2100 or so... what if that gets called... what do you do on particular flops?



Throwing in like a third of your stack for the privilege of playing OOP with like 1 PSB behind is -EV with 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

As said I would make it 2,5k-3k, call any shove and shove any flop obv. I think a go'n'go is for sure an alternative to shoving preflop here.

Re: 88 in SB.... squeeze?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
-or-
Reraise to 2100 or so... what if that gets called... what do you do on particular flops?



Throwing in like a third of your stack for the privilege of playing OOP with like 1 PSB behind is -EV with 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

As said I would make it 2,5k-3k, call any shove and shove any flop obv. I think a go'n'go is for sure an alternative to shoving preflop here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Say you raise to 3K. If Villain 1 calls, he will have 2600 behind in a pot of at least 7K. He is not folding to any bet on the flop. And what about Villain 2? He is not going to call this raise, he is either folding or moving in. If he moves in and you call, again the pot is large again.

And getting back to Villain 1. Is he going to just call off more than half his stack to see a flop and then fold to it? And if he does move in, are you going to fold now?

You cannot raise this pot and then fold on the flop. If you somehow just get calls for your raise and then shove any flop, you have absolutely no fold equity.

Face it guys, this is a shove or fold with shove being much better unless you are an expert and can find other bigger edges.