50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Villain is 39/20/5 over 70 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $44.80
Hero (MP): $78.35
CO: $62.55
BTN: $49.25
SB: $101.50
BB: $111.40

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, SB calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $20.50</font>, Hero...?


Villain plays this aggressively, but how can I extract the most value here? Keep in mind we're both a little bit deep in our stacks. Do I wait until the river to get it in, or could another diamond kill my action? Or do I get it in on the turn? If not, what's the appropriate raise?

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Make it $45-$50 to go. The line villain is taking is usually a strong hand, probably a set or a straight, just raise now, a diamond will kill your action for sure.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I'm pushing this turn. He may have an unlikely straight, a lower flush, or possibly a set here. I'm not sure the typical opponent can get away from any of those. I'd hate to call and have a diamond fall on the river or board pair.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Cards we don't like on the river: anything that pairs the board (12 cards, although funnily enough, if villain has a set it's only 10 cards that are bad for us) and any diamond (7, 5d already accounted for). This means that 19 (or 17) cards either kill the action OR give villain a better hand, this happens 43% of the time! Because of this, I push the turn and feel good about it.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I wouldn't slowplay cuz u don't want another diamond to drop off and kill ur action as u said

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I disagree with 3 betting on the turn. Babala you make a good agrument, but I think 3 betting the turn is going to lose a ton of value from hands we dominate because nothing can really make the call (except for maybe the straight and we can all agree the straight is a very unlikely holding).

What does that turn raise really mean? Straight? possible tho unlikely, the straight probably folds to a 3-bet, but will fire again on the riv if the diamond doesn't come (great odds he'll put money in when he's way behind).

weak flush? again possible, but we're looking at a J high flush at best. This hand is going to maybe make a marginal call on the turn, but again is manditory to bet the riv.

A set? probably worest case senario because it's hard to extract value AND we can be out drawn, but I'm siding with sbrugby here and playing the hand for max value. Again, given a call behind on the turn we're probably getting the villian to bet the riv which hopefully didn't pair the board.

Other than that maaaybe the diamond sparked a bluff and if that's the case another barrell on the riv from an agro player makes sense.

With the strength of our hand I just see the rereaise on the turn from the villian as more of a tester rather than a show of monster strength.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with 3 betting on the turn. Babala you make a good agrument, but I think 3 betting the turn is going to lose a ton of value from hands we dominate because nothing can really make the call (except for maybe the straight and we can all agree the straight is a very unlikely holding).

What does that turn raise really mean? Straight? possible tho unlikely, the straight probably folds to a 3-bet, but will fire again on the riv if the diamond doesn't come (great odds he'll put money in when he's way behind).

weak flush? again possible, but we're looking at a J high flush at best. This hand is going to maybe make a marginal call on the turn, but again is manditory to bet the riv.

A set? probably worest case senario because it's hard to extract value AND we can be out drawn, but I'm siding with sbrugby here and playing the hand for max value. Again, given a call behind on the turn we're probably getting the villian to bet the riv which hopefully didn't pair the board.

Other than that maaaybe the diamond sparked a bluff and if that's the case another barrell on the riv from an agro player makes sense.

With the strength of our hand I just see the rereaise on the turn from the villian as more of a tester rather than a show of monster strength.

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disagree. SB obviously likes his hand enough to c/r the turn, a huge sign of strength, with it. He's not folding to a shove.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

shove dude, you cant call here, he will just never put any more money in. i shove this turn every time.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove dude, you cant call here, he will just never put any more money in. i shove this turn every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, that's what I did, and of course, he folded. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Just wanted to make sure I didn't overplay it and fail to extract the maximum value. Thanks for the input, guys.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I don't see a c/r as this massive sign of strength because there are very few hands that are that strong! I c/r a set or a straight to find out if I'm good, but I'm damn sure not calling a 3 bet.

A call on the turn will absolutely induce a bet on the riv a reasonable amount of the time. I'm interested what everyone puts the villian on here if they really do think he's super strong and wants all his money in the pot

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I'm pretty sure villain will call a push with any set, flush or straight (although a straight is pretty darn unlikely), his stats indicate that he's not too good and generally these players don't like folding when they're strong. So, if we want to slowplay, we might get a little more value out of 2p (45 is the only plausible 2p hand) or a bluff but ~40% of the time the river will become a tough decision for us or villain (4th diamond or board pairing). Actually, his turn c/r doesn't make much sense unless he is very strong/bluffing, I don't see him c/ring a TPTK hand here.

Hence, I push the turn.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Gotta shove here, so many hands that call a shove will shut down on a scary river.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

call is fine imo.

bluffs and Qx hands are a significant part of his range. OOP im definately shoving. But i think he can fold alot of hands to a shove that he puts more money in on the river with. I think the EV we gain by peeling, even with the chance of a diamond killing the action, is greater than the EV of shoving. imo, if hes calling a shove, theres very few hands that a diamond would make c/f in his range.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

meh I disagree. There's 8 diamonds left in the deck, plus 12 cards that pair the board. Thats 20 cards that either kill our action or possible kill our hand.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

riv play:

diamond hits - small value bet, say $25 and who knows if a set would call a shove on the turn they might call 25 on the riv. this is the only senario where real value is lost and with only 8 diamonds in the deck I'll take that chance.

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about. I'm calling any bet after the board pairs which, unless it's all in then I probably saved a few buck from the turn shove. but whatever, calling on the turn commits to an all in on the riv.

no scare card hits: odds of getting at LEAST one more sizable bet or value town out of a worse hand is bascially a sure thing.

The real money maker by playing this line is that if the villian is bluffing you probably get another bet out of him on the riv 50+% of the time.

shoving the turn pushs out everything assuming the player is half resonable.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about.

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You're not thinking this through completely. If a set calls a shove on the turn, he's making a mistake. If the board pairs and he gets it in on the river instead, he's not making a mistake. Even donks can get away from a set on a 4 diamond board. The idea is, you want his money to get in while you're ahead (obv) and you don't want to give him the opportunity to get away from his hand.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I'd shove because as others have said, too many cards kill your action on the river, you are OOP, and he's either got a monster here or air. A monster will call, and the air won't bet latter anyway.

You could bet $50, giving him 3-1 to call, but what calls this that doesn't call the push?

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Make it $45-$50 to go. The line villain is taking is usually a strong hand, probably a set or a straight, just raise now, a diamond will kill your action for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, this another diamond will kill u.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

anyway, I'm going to let this one go, but needless to say I'd like to take the chance that the board pairs on the riv in the hopes that I can squeeze some extra value from a hand that would fold the shove on the turn.

To put into perspective how close I think this is, when I was at the casino playing 1/2NL I flopped a straight with 89s in a family pot from the SB, check/raised the flop, bet called the shove on the turn, but that was with 100BB stacks.

The reason I'm advocating the call here is because the stakes just seem deep enough that the ship on the turn is going to fold everything.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

i wanna crunch sm numbers to see whether to call or shove the turn... just wanna know one thg... if river pairs the board and villain bets abt 1/2 pot (size reasonable?)... do we just call, or is our stack goin in either way? do we ever fold if villain pots the river?

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Push.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

if you are stacking off on any river regardless of scare cards, why not call and let him bluff the lower end of his range instead of shoving and getting called by only the highest end of his range?

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you are stacking off on any river regardless of scare cards, why not call and let him bluff the lower end of his range instead of shoving and getting called by only the highest end of his range?

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Because villain will get away from a set and probably won't go all-in with a lower flush if a 4th diamond hits and will most likely not go broke with a lower flush if the board pairs. Either of these happens a little over 40% of the time. The question is how often villain has a flush/set on the turn compared to Tp/air and how much we're going to make from Tp/air by just calling the turn (I don't think much at all, us calling the turn is very strong so villain will be vary with bad/no hands on the river). I am not ready to give bluffs and Tp that much weight and hoping to get more bets from these hands while sacrificing the money we'd make versus sets/flushes to just call the turn so I push it.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

yeah i don't disagree with that at all, i just think either line is letting villain play 50% of his hands perfectly, and his stats make me think flush/set is less frequent

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Situation A: Villain has a set, made flush, or two pair and is willing to stack off right now. In this case, shoving is clearly best.
Situation B: Villain has air and is making a play at the pot with absolutely nothing. Folding and letting him bluff any river is best here.

I'd say with this particular villain's stats, B is by far the more likely scenario (anywhere up to 3 times as likely). Obviously it's not a large sample size, but you definitely notice maniacal tendencies over 70 hands. I like a call and check/call any river all in, but I don't think it's very different EV-wise from just shoving now.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

^ what i was trying to say

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

This is a tough question because what in the heck raises you here? A set, a smaller flush like someone holding J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? If you raise, you might fold out the smaller flush and if you smooth call, you're giving villain a free shot at filling up.

However, in making a decision I have to go by his stats. His aggression factor is 5 and that tells us he's super aggro. He probably won't let go of this hand no matter what so I would probably shove since he has you covered. On the turn you only have about $66.35 left in your stack. Min-raising will probably get a call and only leave you roughly $24 in your stack on the river. He'll call that too because of the pot odds, so you might as well get it all in on the turn. His aggression factor indicates he doesn't like to let go of his hands. 3-betting the turn makes no sense because if he calls, you'll be left with less than $20 on the river and like I said before, he's gonna call a small river bet because of the pot odds and he's pot committed.

What do you put villain on? I think in this situation you have to put villain on a strong hand. His turn raise indicates he has a very strong hand and is not putting you on A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I would shove and expect to see villain turn over QQ hoping you have AA or KK. his raise on the turn is probably for value and to price out someone with AA (holding the A of diamond). We know that's not what you have...but he doesn't.

I'm assuming villain was not holding something donkish like 86?

AC

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

tank + shove

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

When the villain shows interest, this is great place to shove. Esp since you will and should be shoving AA and KK with the diamond here.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

honestly i think you need to know better how this guy plays and even then it may not make much of a difference.

If he has a set or a middle'ish flush, well, shoving the turn is good.

If he has a top pair type hand, trying to make some sort of goofy move, he'll probably fold a shove.

If he's trying to pull off some sort of semi-bluff with an OESD, a single biggish [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or if he's trying to value raise a straight, he might call a smallish 3-bet, maybe not.

i would act like i'm thinking real hard and raise it to 40-45 like I'm trying to take control of the hand back. but i think against the majority of his range, he's probably not putting any more $$ in regardless...

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Well my original thoughts when looking at the hand was that I would just call the turn because I didn't think there was much value lost on the river regardless of what came if he had Q/set/two pair since I felt like this type of loose player would still stack off on a non diamond river with Qs/two pairs/sets and that by calling on the turn it gives you more value from his bluffs. The texture of this board though is actually a bit too high though for that because if a 3,6,8 comes... theres now 4 cards to a straight and alot of his range has to fold/give up. So the value lost from those scare cards hitting is bigger than the value gained from the % of the time he's bluffing on the turn and you allow him to bluff again on the river.

If this board were something like Q82 however with a 3 turn that made the flush i'd lean more towards calling because in that situation, a non diamond river I think he still stacks off with his sets/two pairs because theres not a 4 card straight out there now.

And in that situation, the questoin would be does the money we lose from a 4th diamond hitting on the river making him fold alot of his range, outweight the money we gain from him bluffing again on the river. And with this type of player with those stats, I think the value we gain from when he continues bluffing is more than what we lose from when it does hit and he folds because I still think this type of player calls sometimes with set/two pair when 4th diamond hits, or even might try to turn a hand like top pair Qs into a bluff.

Also theres a little bit of additional value that you actually get out of calling turn and non diamond hitting on river because he can also think you were drawing for the A high flush occasionally with the Ad or Kd and when it misses he might call you lighter on river with a hand like TT that he c/r'd turn to "find out where he was".

So on that type of board, his Qs/sets/two pairs still give similar to equal value on non diamond rivers and you allow him to bluff which I think this player does more frequently than others.

[ QUOTE ]
"You're not thinking this through completely. If a set calls a shove on the turn, he's making a mistake. If the board pairs and he gets it in on the river instead, he's not making a mistake. Even donks can get away from a set on a 4 diamond board. The idea is, you want his money to get in while you're ahead (obv) and you don't want to give him the opportunity to get away from his hand.
"

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying is true but that doesn't imply the other guy was incorrect. The idea that when the board pairs you lose anyway IS actually true like he said if you then begin to figure out how to get more value out of the rest of his range. For example if you assume that when he has a set/two pair he never folds and money goes in anyway, you can then start figuring out what might gain more value from the rest of his range. For example if you assume hsi range is just sets/two pair and the money gets all in on turn/river either way then that means the overall EV from when board pairs and he has two pair/set is the same... but if you now assume that by calling the turn you can gain more value from his bluffs, that would then make calling on the turn better.

The idea of just focusing on getting money in when you're ahead isn't always correct when it has adverse effects on the value you get from the rest of his range.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

I think this really comes down to a mathematical EV problem because it's too close to analyze qualitatively. There are several variable we'd need to define, such as specific probabilities to the different parts of his range and the probability that he calls/raises/folds each piece of the range for the various actions I can take (and bet sizes). In the end, these would be estimates at best.

This fairly long discussion leads me to believe that the solution here is so close that either shoving on the turn or waiting until the river probably have similar expected values, so either move probably isn't too far off from the mathematically correct play. If someone wants to take a shot at estimating these %'s and coming up with a rough EV calculation for each play, that would be interesting to see.

Oh Pokey, where art thou...

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

b4 i can do any sort of ev calculations... i wanna check if this sounds reasonable... btw... it's all very crude...

villain plays 39% of his hands... agreed he'll probably play less than that from bb... but i dunno how much less, so i'll stick with 39%. fair?

i'll assume he calls with any piece of the flop... so 1/3 times he'll call our flop bet... but the board is draw heavy, so lets say he continues abt 1/2 the time. fair?

k... on turn, i'm gonna assume his range is a flush, set or bluff. i'm groupin str8s and 2prs and other weak-reasonable hands as a bluff... i dunno how much he's gonna bluff here... but i'll say he bluffs with 1/3 of his hands here...

sm1 pls tell me if these assumptions are ok

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

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With the strength of our hand I just see the rereaise on the turn from the villian as more of a tester rather than a show of monster strength.

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Not a bad analysis, but you're way off about the turn check-raise by villain. A turn check raise is a sign of big time strength. And what does the strength of our hand have to do with villain's actions on the turn? Nothing. It has everything to do with the strength of his hand. Let me ask you this...when was the last time you check-raised someone as a test to see where you stand? That is spew. We typically check-raise as a bluff if we think someone is weak, or we do it when we're very strong. In this particular hand, our Hero is most likely going to see villain with QQ or a smaller flush a very small percentage of the time.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

Heres my calculation


There are 37 dollars in that pot. I want, 25 from the villain. Ill take that and anything else is gravy.

Another calculation:


http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/7892/shoveldowh0.jpg

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
riv play:

diamond hits - small value bet, say $25 and who knows if a set would call a shove on the turn they might call 25 on the riv. this is the only senario where real value is lost and with only 8 diamonds in the deck I'll take that chance.

board pairs - still way a head of alot of his range, but sure, could be crushed. Again if a set was calling a shove on the turn then we lost the hand regardless so what is everyone so upset about. I'm calling any bet after the board pairs which, unless it's all in then I probably saved a few buck from the turn shove. but whatever, calling on the turn commits to an all in on the riv.

no scare card hits: odds of getting at LEAST one more sizable bet or value town out of a worse hand is bascially a sure thing.

The real money maker by playing this line is that if the villian is bluffing you probably get another bet out of him on the riv 50+% of the time.

shoving the turn pushs out everything assuming the player is half resonable.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to look at stack sizes. Villain has us covered by roughly $22. If we get it in on the turn with a made hand we give villain the pot odds to call. He has already committed himself to the hand. Calling is not an option. Villain will call our last $25 on the river. If Hero had more in his stack re-raising villain might be an option. However, he started with $78 so shoving is the best play on the turn.

AC

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
when was the last time you check-raised someone as a test to see where you stand? That is spew.

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someone thats 39/20/5 i assume has no problem making spewtastic plays.

Re: 50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heres my calculation


There are 37 dollars in that pot. I want, 25 from the villain. Ill take that and anything else is gravy.

Another calculation:


http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/7892/shoveldowh0.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. can't argue with this. it is tempting to call in position but too many cards kill your river action.