Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

Main Vil is D_liciousUTB. I have him at 24/19/3 over a large sample and he folds his big blind 72% of the time. I have no direct history with him.

SB is a 50/8 party fish.

Party Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $520
UTG: $442.30
MP: $577.40
CO: $551.34
Hero (BTN): $400
SB: $143.08

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, SB calls $12, <font color="red">BB raises to $65</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $172</font>, SB folds, BB calls $107

<font color="blue">Obviously I don't 4bet here every time but once in a while vs these kinds of opponents I will 4bet and stack pre. Its a great spot pre for him to squeeze. His call though was WTF</font>

Flop: ($358) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero has $228 left

<font color="blue">Ummmmmm.... what can he have, he'd surely shove AK pre as most other hands. Was really lost at this point. Whats the plan if we check behind, or is this a good spot to shove?</font>

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

i have no idea wtf is going on, id put him on aces and give up, but shove cant be too bad, if hes just calling QQ/JJ pre hes prob folding this flop. him calling a $172 4bet when $400 deep is pretty retarded with all hands imo

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

That is plane awful.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

I might just shove flop as a two-way bet, it looks like a really badly played AQ or QQ to me. I'm very confused though

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

check behind and try and hit

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
check behind and try and hit

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What's your plan for the turn if you miss? Obv fold to shove but do we shove if checked to?

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

Hes not folding.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
i have no idea wtf is going on, id put him on aces and give up, but shove cant be too bad, if hes just calling QQ/JJ pre hes prob folding this flop. him calling a $172 4bet when $400 deep is pretty retarded with all hands imo

[/ QUOTE ]

it's pretty damn retarded with aces, cos nextgen is never folding ATC, but i can't imagine this guy doing it with QQ/JJ either...weird line, be interesting to see what he had, one thing is for sure AQ is never in his range. i check turn again.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

fwiw i have this guy a lot nittier than 24/19, over 2k hands

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i have this guy a lot nittier than 24/19, over 2k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

what have you got him at?

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

im cf this hand on every street unless i hit the nuts

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]
EV= 68.37+ -745.62
EV= -677.25

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-677.25)(1-x)

0=358x-677.25+677.25x
0=1035x-677.25
677.25=1035x
x=65%

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]
EV= 68.37+ -745.62
EV= -677.25

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-677.25)(1-x)

0=358x-677.25+677.25x
0=1035x-677.25
677.25=1035x
x=65%

[/ QUOTE ]

looks good conceptually and i assume you can work a calculator...

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

i agree its reallll fishy to just call pre. maybe he's floating the 4bet to bet the turn if the flop checks through...i've done that once and seen it from a couple other tag/lag villain's, though it's def FPS.

anyway, i doubt he even folds JJ to a push here. so I either c/f all the way, or maybe check flop and call on a turn card under T.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i have this guy a lot nittier than 24/19, over 2k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

what have you got him at?

[/ QUOTE ]

18/14

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

check flop check turn shove river

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hes not folding.

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seriously he's definitely not folding. just check and check again on the turn. if he shoves, obv fold. fwiw i don't really like the 4bet but it's okay once in a while... obviously much better i think if you know he'll never do something like flat and leave us in a spot like this

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

shove pre, as played check behind and hope to spike a 9.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
shove pre, as played check behind and hope to spike a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

shove pre depends on your overall strategy and I don't play an all-in 4bet strat.

anyways results were I shoved and didn't really like it. I got a fold but in retrospect I think just try to check this down and hit a 2 outer

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

TILT and I've been playing real bad this week. My hand is embarassing. genneo, your hand was good.

Fionn, you're stats are old. You constantly berating me and calling me a nit, inspired me to improve.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is off - hero wins 8.4% of 814 when called, but when he calls and loses it is (91.6%)x(-228) which is the cost of hero's bluff. This changes the ultimate answer pretty drastically:

EV= 68.37+ -208.85
EV= -140.478

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-140.478)(1-x)

0=358x-140.478+140.478x
0=498.478x - 140.478
140.478 = 498.478x
x = 28.18%

I would venture that there is a &gt;28% chance that villain has called a hand that is not AA/KK that will fold, either a poorly played QQ/JJ or some shenanigans that shouldn't have seen a flop, so I would shove. It doesn't necessarily matter if the hand that folds is AQ-esque, since we cannot call a bet so we are just taking the right of first bluff.

Surf

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

Thanks for clearing that up for me. Was wondering why the FE was so high.

So isn't it clear that we should shove here? It's such good bluffing odds especially even on this board.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
TILT and I've been playing real bad this week. My hand is embarassing. genneo, your hand was good.

Fionn, you're stats are old. You constantly berating me and calling me a nit, inspired me to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

who are you? pm me if you want

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TILT and I've been playing real bad this week. My hand is embarassing. genneo, your hand was good.

Fionn, you're stats are old. You constantly berating me and calling me a nit, inspired me to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

who are you? pm me if you want

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was obvious who I am based on my post.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

Fionn, ur PM box is full.

Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
 

sorry, emptied now