Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Rizen knows am a 2+2er. I know he is a thinking player and I've been playing solid poker so I assume he thinks am a semi-thinking player as well.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
(Ante: t75)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t31332
UTG+1: t25787
Hero: t56577
MP2: t61644
CO: t29165
Button: t26140
SB: t27972
BB: t19430

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="cc3333">Hero raises to t3600</font>, 4 folds, BB calls t2400.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t8400, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t8400, 2 players)
<font color="cc3333">BB bets t5200</font>, Hero calls t5200.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t18800, 2 players)
<font color="cc3333">BB is all-in t10555</font>, Hero calls t10555.

Results:
Final pot: t39910


Standard?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Am I missing something, aren't you playing the board here?
There's no way you can call.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

yes, I'm playing the board.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Interesting...lots of "he knows that I know that he knows than I know" stuff going on...

Rizen probably believes you don't have a diamond, since you would have likely cbet the flop with any diamond and the river A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (and flopped Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) makes it unlikely you were slow playing a flopped flush. On the turn, if he has a diamond, I can see him betting because he wants to build the pot a little and see if you are trying to slowplay something. I can see him betting with or without a diamond, but I don't assume that he doesn't have one. On the river, his push makes sense whether or not he has a diamond. However, you are now risking an additional 10k to win ~20k, since you can't win the last 10k he bet. I guess it's probably a vaguely reasonable pot odds call, the chances of him having a diamond are worse than 3:1 based on raw math and perhaps not much better even when you factor in the action during the hand, which a thinking player would do with or without a diamond.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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However, you are now risking an additional 10k to win ~20k, since you can't win the last 10k he bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually since a split is the best we can hope for (playing the board), it's a 10k call to split the 19k currently in the middle, unless I'm missing something...

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Shove the turn?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
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However, you are now risking an additional 10k to win ~20k, since you can't win the last 10k he bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually since a split is the best we can hope for (playing the board), it's a 10k call to split the 19k currently in the middle, unless I'm missing something...

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, right, brain fart.

10k to win 10k then. That changes my math and changes my decision to make the call, I'd fold the river.

If you were going to call the river on a 5th diamond anyway, I'd have repushed the turn. Did the fact that it was the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as opposed to a low [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] influence that decision to call the river bet?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shove the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely the correct answer... let's suppose you misclick and call on the turn. What's your river play?

btw, seke is spot on as to my thinking... except I don't think Rizen pushes with any diamond on the river.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
btw, seke is spot on as to my thinking... except I don't think Rizen pushes with any diamond on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he might push if he knows you wouldn't think he'd do that, and that's why it gets a lot harder in these spots where the opponents know each other.

I guess you're basically thinking Rizen either has a high diamond or no diamond at all, since he wouldn't push with something like a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? I think a 9 (or T/J/K) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] pushes here, so I can only see 2 flush hands that beat the board and probably check/call any instead of push, and since this is Rizen, I imagine he'd have to have exactly 55 or 77 to play the hand that way.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
since this is Rizen, I imagine he'd have to have exactly 55 or 77 to play the hand that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

You underestimate how crazy this guy plays. Btw Rizen does not know me personally. I just congratulated him on his Big Deal win when I saw him at my table therefore letting him know I'm a 2+2er.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Really? What other 5's and 7's is Rizen playing here? Is he calling a lot with low suited connectors OOP or trash like A7s/A5s?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Rizen (big blind) showed [7h 8s] and won (19955) with a flush, Ace high

cheeky sod [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: He did play a great hand. I just knew that he was capable of it.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Shove the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely the correct answer... let's suppose you misclick and call on the turn. What's your river play?



[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

What a donk. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Well, anyways, after fixing my math for the brain fart, I'm trying to figure whether you can possibly call this.

Let's say Rizen has a diamond 1/3 of the time.

33.3%: Hero ends up at 37147 = 12369.95
66.6%: Hero ends up at 57477 = 38279.68
Total EV for calling: 50649.63

Hero folds: Hero ends up at 47702
EV for folding: 47702

Break even EV point is somewhere around a 50% chance that Rizen has a diamond (and beats the board, obviously).

Does that make it a call? Hmm...

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Shove the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely the correct answer... let's suppose you misclick and call on the turn. What's your river play?

btw, seke is spot on as to my thinking... except I don't think Rizen pushes with any diamond on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Puke and fold as punishment for my misclick?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

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That's why the play is good.

If we shove the turn, he has to have the nut flush to call.

Very, very, very, mostly he won't have it and we win a nice pot.

For the very,very,very,very few times he does have it, we have boat outs.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

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That's why the play is good.

If we shove the turn, he has to have the nut flush to call.

Very, very, very, mostly he won't have it and we win a nice pot.

For the very,very,very,very few times he does have it, we have boat outs.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Pushing the turn is mandatory.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why the play is good.

If we shove the turn, he has to have the nut flush to call.

Very, very, very, mostly he won't have it and we win a nice pot.

For the very,very,very,very few times he does have it, we have boat outs.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Would Rizen need the nut flush to call? Would he call with *ANY* flush there? Hero probably cbets most of the time with the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the flop, doesn't he?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why the play is good.

If we shove the turn, he has to have the nut flush to call.

Very, very, very, mostly he won't have it and we win a nice pot.

For the very,very,very,very few times he does have it, we have boat outs.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

From the BB's perspective does hero ever fail to cbet this flop with the A or K of diamonds? I would think no, meaning I(BB) would call a turn push by hero with more than just the nut flush. Incorrect reasoning?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Do you think he calls with anything we beat if you push the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why the play is good.

If we shove the turn, he has to have the nut flush to call.

Very, very, very, mostly he won't have it and we win a nice pot.

For the very,very,very,very few times he does have it, we have boat outs.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

From the BB's perspective does hero ever fail to cbet this flop with the A or K of diamonds? I would think no, meaning I(BB) would call a turn push by hero with more than just the nut flush. Incorrect reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he flopped the nut flush himself?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rizen (big blind) showed [7h 8s] and won (19955) with a flush, Ace high

cheeky sod [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: He did play a great hand. I just knew that he was capable of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I personally think calling 10k to win 9.5k when that's the BEST possible outcome is a bad call. I definitely agree with everyone that said shove the turn.

Also, I had no idea that this player was a 2+2er. I read him as a solid player, but no idea he knew anything about me other than he somehow knew I won the 'Big Deal' Sunday, which was posted both here and on Pocket 5s.

I'm not a big fan of making a 1:1 call when you're playing the board, unless the board contains the nuts. Re-pop me on the turn and you get the whole pot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Rizen

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

I don't think he makes that turn bet with the nut flush, and even if he does by some small chance have the nut flush, you spike a boat or quads on the river. Poker is easy.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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Would Rizen need the nut flush to call? Would he call with *ANY* flush there? Hero probably cbets most of the time with the A/K on the flop, doesn't he?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably right, so you can remove one of the "very's" from each of my statements.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

By the way, the other thing that makes the turn push mandatory is stack size. You played this hand as though the stack sizes were reversed. Make Rizen decide whether to risk his tourney life on a weak flush or worse knowing you might hold the nuts. Even if you lose, you are still in fine shape.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

I thought 'shove the turn' .3 seconds after reading this, but I've played with Rizen a few times before [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Calling the river is fairly bad...not as bad as vs. almost any other player, but bad.

PS: Congrats man, I'm jealous as hell.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

For those of you saying calling the river is bad, since I did the math and it seems like it's a +EV call unless you believe there's at least a 50% chance that the opponent has a diamond ... does that mean you think the average unknown player has a diamond at least 50% of the time on this river push?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

The interesting question is for Rizen to answer. What hands would you call the turn push with here?

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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[Do] you think the average unknown player has a diamond at least 50% of the time on this river push?

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Yes.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

I am also interested in opinions on Rizen's river push.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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The interesting question is for Rizen to answer. What hands would you call the turn push with here?

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I'd seriously consider calling with ANYTHING that beats the board here. Even a miniscule chance at a scoop makes this call much better than no chance at all. You have to figure that my push here is either a complete bluff, or a value bet with something like the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or better. Any lesser diamond and I'm pretty sure a thinking player is check/calling here. Based on the board and the action I'd weight it about 70/30 for my real hands vs my bluffs, which makes calling with any hand that can scoop a bluff clearly profitable.

Just my .02 with some very short analysis, I haven't really dug into it too deeply yet.

-Rizen

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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The interesting question is for Rizen to answer. What hands would you call the turn push with here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd seriously consider calling with ANYTHING that beats the board here. Even a miniscule chance at a scoop makes this call much better than no chance at all. You have to figure that my push here is either a complete bluff, or a value bet with something like the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or better. Any lesser diamond and I'm pretty sure a thinking player is check/calling here. Based on the board and the action I'd weight it about 70/30 for my real hands vs my bluffs, which makes calling with any hand that can scoop a bluff clearly profitable.

Just my .02 with some very short analysis, I haven't really dug into it too deeply yet.

-Rizen

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No sir, what would YOU need to be holding in order to call the TURN push, if we had done that.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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No sir, what would YOU need to be holding in order to call the TURN push, if we had done that.

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I don't like the tone of that post. Maybe it is unintentional. Written communication can be ambiguous.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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No sir, what would YOU need to be holding in order to call the TURN push, if we had done that.

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I don't like the tone of that post. Maybe it is unintentional. Written communication can be ambiguous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, completely unintentional. My apologies for writing in a way that apparently was easily misunderstood.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

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No sir, what would YOU need to be holding in order to call the TURN push, if we had done that.

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I don't like the tone of that post. Maybe it is unintentional. Written communication can be ambiguous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, completely unintentional. My apologies for writing in a way that apparently was easily misunderstood.

[/ QUOTE ]

nvm. it's just me... re-reading it I understand why you would cap YOU and TURN... I always miss actual sarcasm and detect sarcasm when there isn't any...

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Rizen,

I'm confused.

First of all, he's getting 2.8-1, not 1-1 on the river.

Secondly, you are telling him that you don't like his call, AND you are telling him that you expect anything that beats the board here to call your river bet...

So...

What the [censored] are you doing in this hand?

-Jason

Edit: Im a retard. I thought you had 7d 8s. Ignore me

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

And, in this case, when hero is drawing to half the pot, he is getting 1.4-1.

-Jason

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

If hero calls and splits, Rizen gets his 10.5k back and hero splits the 19k with Rizen.

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The interesting question is for Rizen to answer. What hands would you call the turn push with here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd seriously consider calling with ANYTHING that beats the board here. Even a miniscule chance at a scoop makes this call much better than no chance at all. You have to figure that my push here is either a complete bluff, or a value bet with something like the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or better. Any lesser diamond and I'm pretty sure a thinking player is check/calling here. Based on the board and the action I'd weight it about 70/30 for my real hands vs my bluffs, which makes calling with any hand that can scoop a bluff clearly profitable.

Just my .02 with some very short analysis, I haven't really dug into it too deeply yet.

-Rizen

[/ QUOTE ]

No sir, what would YOU need to be holding in order to call the TURN push, if we had done that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Misread it I guess. I'd imagine the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is the WORST hand I'd even consider calling with. I'd probably need the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to make the call. The only other hand might be a bigger set, but if I had a bigger set we don't get to the turn without me putting money in the pot on the flop.

-Rizen

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
If hero calls and splits, Rizen gets his 10.5k back and hero splits the 19k with Rizen.

[/ QUOTE ]

My money is already in the pot, so technically he is getting 1.4:1 I believe. I guess it really depends on how often you think I bluff here. I don't think you can put me on pure bluff much more than 1/3 of the time, but it's all speculative I suppose.

I don't like the call. I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad call, but I hate making big calls when the best case scenario for me is a chop. I seriously doubt this call is +EV, but without knowing exactly how often I make this push with complete air, it's impossible to know for sure.

-Rizen

Re: Hand vs. Rizen $109 rebuy
 

Rizen OP is getting 1:1 as NoahSD stated. OP would have to put in 10k to win 10k.