Our hand improves, but...
 

villain is 49/21/1 thru 70 hands. no history

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $204
BB: $206.95
UTG: $191
MP: $210.05
CO: $191
BTN: $232.30

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, BB calls $6

Flop: ($16) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12

Turn: ($40) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30

River: ($100) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

b/f 35

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

You can check to induce, but I doubt he's bluffing TOO much. I'd just c/f most likely, depending on his betsize. I don't think leading is ever good here.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

Given we have the only "real" draw, what range can he bluff the river with when checked too?

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given we have the only "real" draw, what range can he bluff the river with when checked too?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I said he's prob not bluffing too much, but he's 49/21, he can have KsQ, KsJ, or QsJ. I don't see what's gonna call a river bet though.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

any pair could call a bet on river.. he's aggression factor is not high, otherwise it might be good to c/c against possible bluff

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

Check/call.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call.

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Tx and idiots with flushes and full houses make up most of his river betting range IMO

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

So then what's your question?

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

If thats the case then its either b/f or c/f. I like to b/f here since they can show up with anything.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

b/f

edit: i changed my mind to c/f, he's unlikely to bluff the river (given passive stats) and his calling range on that river is too slim

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
So then what's your question?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a c/f but just wondering what you guys thought.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I probabably just c/f. I'm not sure there's alot of value in betting unless you really think he will call with a 9 or worse. I doubt he's ever betting worse either.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

i dunno i probably just block the river alot and get pissed when he minraises. i guess if hes really passive c/f is ok

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

ez c/c imo. If has a ten he raises turn etc. his most likely hands are big spade with a gutshot and such and I'm not folding top pair here against a 41/20 if he bets the river after this action.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

i was thinking c/c also.. but to what extent? are you folding to a full psb? and calling 2/3?

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I would call anything up to a psb, if he is sick enough to overshove as a bluff he wins I guess.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I check/fold here if he bets out largely... I'm a sucker for pot odds. This is a donk not a thinking player, and our hand is equal to A hi 90% of the time here (except that the ace makes him bet smaller pairs less, more bad news for us).

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

b/f smallish, still value from pr+f draws that will check back. c/f is next best.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

not to beat a dead horse but what kind of hand could he have on the turn that crushes our hand on the river? He's a lag, if he flopped a flush or a set or T9 he would have raised on the flop or turn to charge the As which we have. Slowplaying a set or top two on this flop sucks and a lag would almost certainly bump it up here. again his most likely hand is a combo draw with a weak spade (something like KsJx) or a 9 or worse PP who thinks you're FOS, all of which this opponent will likely stab at the pot with if you check river but will fold or bluffraise a river bet.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
b/f smallish, still value from pr+f draws that will check back. c/f is next best.

[/ QUOTE ]

And its not even close imo

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I guess if villain is dumb enough to call obvious sucker bets then bet something like 1/5-1/4 pot

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tx and idiots with flushes and full houses make up most of his river betting range IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like c/f, this guy's an idiot and you have TAWP PAIR. Depends on his bet size too but I'm inclined to call. Can't really decide between b/f and c/c.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I don't like check/folding. We're ahead very often and I don't think his betting/bluffing range is small enought to check/fold. He'll probably call any PP with a spade and bunch of PPs without a spade to the river(don't know whether or not he'll turn them into bluffs on the river, but I would guess he will some part of the time). I also don't think he'll let go of any Ksx and will probably even show up with Qsx some of the time.

I think bet/folding has merits, so I'd c/c or b/f. When the ace hit on the river his calling range probably became tighter and I don't feel entirely comfortable b/f tiny vs this guy so I lean slightly towards c/c.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

Check / call a decent bet. I dont see any reason to lead out on this board. If he shoves, fold.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

c/c the R i would. maybe betting the turn isn't great as the T improves his hand if he is ahead.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
b/f smallish, still value from pr+f draws that will check back. c/f is next best.

[/ QUOTE ]

smallish means what to you?

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

i think a blocker/small value bet is pretty reasonable as well. it is pretty close

he may have a high river agression though and just a low flop and turn aggression, so we can't tell whether he will bluff here, or bet a worse hand

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
b/f smallish, still value from pr+f draws that will check back. c/f is next best.

[/ QUOTE ]

smallish means what to you?

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1/2 pot or thereabouts.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

I like b/f 50.

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

[ QUOTE ]
ez c/c imo. If has a ten he raises turn etc. his most likely hands are big spade with a gutshot and such and I'm not folding top pair here against a 41/20 if he bets the river after this action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thoughts. This guy seems like the type that would love to bluff at the "scare card" ace. I'm c/c here

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

c/c if he was drawing that's a perfect card to bluff, and he's not gonna check back QJ one spade or KJone spade. He doesn't know that you have the As

Re: Our hand improves, but...
 

Ahh I love nits who say c/f. Pretty easy c/c anything up to 2/3 pot. Usually when a donk bluffs a busted draw he makes it like 1/2 pot.