$235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t505)
SB (t6365)
Hero (t2130)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t2200</font>, Hero?

Villian has been pretty active since he had a stack.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

I usually fold here. But I believe calling is the right thing to do, as it is not certain that BU will go out the next few hands. So in the future I told myself to call in these situations mroe often...

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

only top 2 spots pay, i'd fold.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Crappy spot, but I'd fold it pretty easily. QQ is chainsaw material.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Bend over if you call.
http://www.transtools.co.uk/store/im...arChainSaw.jpg

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Calling is profitable if SB is on ATC - which he should be.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

I would call

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

easy call

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Dunno about "easy", I'd make it, though.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Call callll

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t505)
SB (t6365)
Hero (t2130)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t2200</font>, Hero?

Villian has been pretty active since he had a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's the first time I've ever seen SNGWhiz get the "xx call Diff%" axis lower limit down to -25%. As I suspected, it's a fold and it's not really all that close.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2.

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If he's got any clue, he's not on any two. He can fold all day and continue to pwn with the short stack around. The more the blinds go up, the more prize pool he can take from suzzer each orbit.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

I'm not looking at any plots, maybe I should buy Wiz [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, he can push 32o, let us know he's pushing ATC, and still have us fold &gt; 98% of our range. How can he possibly crush the bubble worse than this?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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Calling is profitable if SB is on ATC - which he should be.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

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Thanks for posting that link. I didn't read it because I know the numbers and I guarantee you Suzzer knows the numbers as well. I'm pretty sure Suzzer's question is more about judging the pusher's range.

*We* all know can profitably be shoving ATC, but most people don't anything about that.

edit: like Slim said, there are other factors we can determine besides raw ICM numbers in a vacuum. LOL at "easy call"

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

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I didn't plug in 50% yet but 75% is +.02. And if you knew you had that edge, would you call? I wouldn't. Not with shorty in his situation and will have half his stack in next hand.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

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I didn't plug in %50 yet but %75 is +.02. And if you knew you had that edge, would you call? I wouldn't. Not with shorty in his situation and will have half his stack in next hand.

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i wonder why, on 75% i get +0.8. I dont have min edge on....no antes... I get +0.2 on 50%

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Here's the $EV plot for suzzer's call with JJ versus SB's pushing range. Like people have been saying, break-even is around 75% and if he's pushing 100%, the call is +1.38%, which is solid.

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/5599/suzzer1re4.jpg

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

settings ---&gt;6max?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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settings ---&gt;6max?

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yeah, i found the problem....for some reason my 6max structure had ridiculous payouts. im dumb. /end dumbness.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

When I did this by hand I got a slight negative EV for 75%, did I do something wrong?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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When I did this by hand I got a slight negative EV for 75%, did I do something wrong?

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i think everyone is getting +%0.2 at 75%

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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How can he possibly crush the bubble worse than this?

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Looking at the hand from SB's perspective and plotting SB's $EV against suzzer's calling in the BB...

http://img472.imageshack.us/img472/6848/suzzer2tx5.jpg
100/200: +0.87% with 32o against 5% call

http://img472.imageshack.us/img472/8149/suzzer3et0.jpg
100/200/25: +1.25% with 32o against 5% call

http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/4442/suzzer4mg5.jpg
200/400/50: +2.27% with 32o against 5% call

It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's &gt;2x as much in the pot preflop.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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When I did this by hand I got a slight negative EV for 75%, did I do something wrong?

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Since this is BvB, you should get the same result with SNGWhiz, SNGPT, and a hand calculation to within your numerical precision. I got +0.15% for a call against SB pushing 75%.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

I would fold this. Also, even though he should be, SB probably is not on any 2.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

I don't understand. Could you explain how this table set-up is profitable if he doesn't take advantage of it?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

i like slim pickens points, BUT

how are we so sure that villain is smart and capable enough to think what slim pickens is thinking

i am a good but not great sng players and generally in this spot i am shipping ATC because "lol bubble"

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's &gt;2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's &gt;2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot. My point is that two levels later, it's not hard to find an extra +0.8% by making calling ranges tighter, and that's what SB needs to offset passing this opportunity with the bottom end of his range. I'm not suggesting SB should be folding a hand with, like, a face card in it.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Two levels? Wtf? We'll be HU by then, if the tournament is still running.

Just take the edge now.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot.

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With a good player in the BB, i dont think SB should be on anything else but ATC. There s no way a competent BB would significantly loosen his calling range in this setup, even if SB is clearly pushing ATC, right?

If SB folds anything here, he gives up solid value this hand, for a very questionable reward. I'd be very surprised if this setup frequently lasts 2 more lvl's...but then, i'm not playing anywhere near this buy-in [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Btw, ICM overestimates BBs current equity. It does not take into account the future -EV spots that we will face as midstack on the bubble. Doubling up here does have more value than ICM suggests.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

i'd fold while cursing a lot, etc.

edit - After skimming the thread, seems like if SB is on any 2, its a call. While that might be true, idk if he actually IS on any 2, so I think it's pretty close and I'd still lean towards folding.

"Villian has been pretty active since he had a stack." - not 100% sure what this means, I guess if you think he's pushing any 2 then call. Maybe if he's shoved every SB vs. BB for the last 7 orbits or whatever... But even though he should be pushing any 2, keep in mind he might not be. People playing the opposite of how they should is how we all make money.

Anyway, close but I probably fold, fwiw.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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Two levels? Wtf? We'll be HU by then, if the tournament is still running.

Just take the edge now.

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If it's on FT and the next level is 120/240, then yeah, folding if you put him on ATC is dumb. On Stars, the next level could be 100/200/25 next hand. There's a pretty big difference between those two scenarios.

From my experience with the 236 6-max SNGs on FT, unless I have a decent sample of hands to decide my opponent knows the first thing about bubble strategy, I fold because I don't think he's pushing near any two. An unknown at this level probably thinks he's getting clever by bluffing with K8s and QTo. His donkey-logic brain will still tell him that going all-in with just T5o is bad. If Stars is significantly different, you should probably just ignore me.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's &gt;2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot. My point is that two levels later, it's not hard to find an extra +0.8% by making calling ranges tighter, and that's what SB needs to offset passing this opportunity with the bottom end of his range. I'm not suggesting SB should be folding a hand with, like, a face card in it.

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I disagree heavily, at the very least in this specific situation since even if the shorty is there for a bunch of hands suzzer is not going to start calling A3 or something just because big stack has been pushing every hand, good players ranges wont fluctuate here THAT much so SB needs to take every advantage he can take, giving suzzer chips doesnt give him equity.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

Offhand it's probably a call but I dunno payout structure and crap. JJ performs extremely well against any 2.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2.

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If he's got any clue, he's not on any two. He can fold all day and continue to pwn with the short stack around. The more the blinds go up, the more prize pool he can take from suzzer each orbit.

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You on the pipe? Of course he should be on any 2.

Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
 

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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wtf??? This makes no sense, pushing any 2 is completely 100% automatic. I know I just said it in the previous post, but your logic is way way way off.