A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

Villian is typicall nitty tag, I have him at 15/9 over 250 hands, and he has three bet 3% of his hands. I think we can narrow his range down to QQ-AA based on the action, the question is will he fold it.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $50
SB: $60.35
BB: $49.50
UTG: $67.55
MP: $73.50
CO: $82.65

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $5.75</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $8</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $44.25 and is All-In</font>

thoughts?

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

wow this wasnt what I expected when I opened this thread. What is your image here? I think your going to get called enough that this is very thin.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

sorry villian should have me at 22/18, and should view me as solid because I've been running good and showing down the goods.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

What are you trying to represent?

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

The only hand that is going to call you is going to beat you. It is a lot to bet...with this guys stats I think you can find a better spot to take his money.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

this is so spewy

3-bet from a nit = you should fold preflop. your preflop call isn't completely bad, but you should definitely 100% of the time dump it when you dont hit a set.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

I'd just fold pre-flop, if he's truly nitty we won't take his money often enough post-flop to make set-mining worthwhile.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

See this is weird. If you think he can fold AA-QQ then you should be folding pre flop as youre not guaranteed his stack and you dont have odds. If you dont think he can fold it, then I dont mind the pf call even though its close, but then I definitely hate this flop play.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

[ QUOTE ]
See this is weird. If you think he can fold AA-QQ then you should be folding pre flop as youre not guaranteed his stack and you dont have odds. If you dont think he can fold it, then I dont mind the pf call even though its close, but then I definitely hate this flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT nh

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

[ QUOTE ]
See this is weird. If you think he can fold AA-QQ then you should be folding pre flop as youre not guaranteed his stack and you dont have odds. If you dont think he can fold it, then I dont mind the pf call even though its close, but then I definitely hate this flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post hit the nail on the head, if you think the villian can fold an overpair don't play this hand against him.

Your line is very spewy here.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

if I'm calling with 55 against a nitty/predictable villian its for more than set value obv. I think I can stack him a good amount of the time but I also think there are some flops I can push him off his overpair...ie I stack his overpair on a 257 flop and maybe push him off say KK on a QQ10 flop

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

I understand what youre getting at, that most of the time you will get his stack and on a few boards you can scare him into folding. If that is true, I dont think that holds up for this board at all. What is he putting you on, TT? If he views you as solid I dont think he can put you on any hands that beat him assuming he has a premium hand. On a side note, do you have reason to believe that he is honestly capable of folding KK on a QQT board? I understand he is nitty, but that doesnt mean he lets go of his big pairs easily when he gets them.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

Technically I think this is a value bet, it's just not a very good one. Fold pre.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think we can narrow his range down to QQ-AA based on the action, the question is will he fold it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why the hell would he fold any of those? This is really bad

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

immediate reaction is that this is terrible. nits don't fold ime.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

he just puts you on and overpair lower than his. The only thing he is folding here is AK.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

Looks like spew. Nits don't fold overpairs in 3bet pots. I'd like this if you were the 15/9 and villain was the 22/18.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

Bad, especially on this paired board. What the hell is our nit afraid of, TT? 22?

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

alright general consensus is lolspewaments. He folded and showed QQ so I thought "zomg sweet bluff AZ!!!11" but per usual you guys brought me back to earth.

Re: A flop bluff with 55 - NL$50 6m
 

fwiw he prob should fold QQ there, but nits are dumb. really bad bluff.