QJs got there on river
 

Villan seems taggish. We had another hand on the same table where he raised pf, I called his c-bet with a gutty in pos, then he doubled the turn and I folded. Other than that he hasn't done a whole lot and neither have I.

6-max 1/2NL $200 effective

PF: 1 fold, Villan opens $7, all fold to me on the button, I call $7 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], blinds fold.

($17) Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villan bets $12, I call $12

($41) Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villan bets $31, Hero calls $31

($103) River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villan checks, Hero bets $88.

eh?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

seems a little heavy to me

Re: QJs got there on river
 

mainly q-ing bet sizing.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I'd make it like $66

Re: QJs got there on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make it like $66

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. maybe even a little less.. I think it's a pretty thin spot, so less is better (more likely to get called light, lose less when you are behind). I really don't think you can try to get a better hand to fold here.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think you can try to get a better hand to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Any 1-pair hand better than QJ is check/calling for sure.

There is some value against JJ/TT/9x though. I'd bet less on the river.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

yes, a valuebet about 60 seems best. what about raising flop or turn, does anyone like it?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I dont see how you can peel this flop AND the turn. Are you folding to a river bet? I think you should raise the turn.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I like it when villian is a regular you play often. Otherwise, it seems a little too thin

Re: QJs got there on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how you can peel this flop AND the turn. Are you folding to a river bet? I think you should raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see hero has a flush draw on the turn?

3/4 is nice but it's OK as played.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

To all those saying this bet is thin,

The reason many advocate a smaller bet is not to find a fold to a raise but rather attempt to extract a call from 9x/8x. Atleast that is my interpretation of the hand....

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I really don't think a big bet is any good here since you can't rep a bluff with this line. I mean, for you to be bluffing he has to put you on a double float pretty much. If there was a flush draw or something on the flop then a bigger bet would be more viable.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

prob a little out of my depth here, i see your hand as a decent amount of showdown value, but i see the only hands you are beating that may call this are JJ and TT on the river. Folding the slim chance of AK, and getting C/r from sets.

Is the C/R out of the question for him on the river?

Would he have played a set like this?

If he would, i would be betting 1/2 pot VB.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I'd often raise the flop and if i didn't raise the flop, I'm almost always raising the turn

Re: QJs got there on river
 

jlocdog, i think the chances of 9x/8x sort of hands are very unlikly given the pre flop action, and comprise a very small part of his range. I dont think that should be the justification for lowering you bet size

Re: QJs got there on river
 

after rereading the hand, i kinda like a call on the turn now. since the board is dry the villain likely has a strong hand when he double barrells, all our outs are hidden so we're likely to get paid off.

none the less, i think the river is really thin, since both TT-JJ calls and KK-AA, but he probably folds alot of weaker hands because you should be checking behind alot on the river, unless you have a propensity to bet the river really thin.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

"jlocdog, i think the chances of 9x/8x sort of hands are very unlikly given the pre flop action"

[ QUOTE ]
PF: 1 fold, Villan opens $7, all fold to me on the button, I call $7 with QJ, blinds fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? How did you interpret that from this statement?

PP up to JJ are also apart of his range. We beat all of them.
Infact KQ+ probably comprises less of his range then PP of 22-JJ,9x,8x.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

71

Re: QJs got there on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think a big bet is any good here since you can't rep a bluff with this line. I mean, for you to be bluffing he has to put you on a double float pretty much. If there was a flush draw or something on the flop then a bigger bet would be more viable.

[/ QUOTE ]Well 67 but yeah it is hard to rep a bluff here. Your most likely bluffing hand, aside from 67, is a made hand turned into a bluff. To rep that, though, I think you should bet bigger, since you're 'trying to fold out a made medium-to-strong hand'.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

Meh, I like it. He'll say you have JT or a bluff, and he won't think you're bluffing if you bet weak.

I don't think you can rep a made hand turned bluff here, but if that's what you were doing, you would also bet strong.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

fine as played. i would be ~67. 88 would be fine if there were any obvious draws on the flop though.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

meh i'm sure he's c/c'ing TT and JJ here some of the time, as well as KK and AA, and any Q he double barreled.

you're hand looks a lot like what it is, and i'm sure JT is a more believable draw for you to have than T7 or 67

this is usually a bet, but closer to 2/3 of the pot

Re: QJs got there on river
 

jlocdog: just given the taggish read, opening A9 and 9T type hands oop is unlikely. Then his line post flop leads me to think they are even more unlikely. I would be discounting thing greatly from his range. That is all i was saying.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

so you guys like betting a bit less, like 67 on the river?

how about betting something like $100?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

your hand has obv showdown value, what about betting more (even pushing), and turning this into an overbet AI bluff with some showdown value. Al la gp333 in the recent thread. Pros and cons?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

Jacbmw- When the dude double barrels here on this board and then checks the river, he is far more likely to have a hand with showdown value rather then air. To think KK/AA looks to c/c with these stacks sizes for PC or any other reason seems rather weak (and thus goes against his TAG moniker).

Also, opening from the HJ with 9x/8x does not go against the TAG read. My guess is that he has TT,JJ or JT himself the majority of the time. I would be more surprised if he turns up with KK/AA more often then A9 type crap.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jacbmw- When the dude double barrels here on this board and then checks the river, he is far more likely to have a hand with showdown value rather then air. To think KK/AA looks to c/c with these stacks sizes for PC or any other reason seems rather weak (and thus goes against his TAG moniker).


Also, opening from the HJ with 9x/8x does not go against the TAG read. My guess is that he has TT,JJ or JT himself the majority of the time. I would be more surprised if he turns up with KK/AA more often then A9 type crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree with how often you think he shows up with AA/KK here. i think he shows up with JT < 1% of the time. our hand looks like a draw or a 9. JT got there, and most nines aren't calling a third barrel here. AA/KK will c/c a good amount of the time on this river to get value from bluffs or thin VBs, while not getting stacked by JT or a strange 2-pair like Q8ss

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I didn't mean to add JT in his likely holdings.

I am confused as to why many feel that KK/AA thinks we will be betting this river card for him very often given action. The only hand we conceivably have with any amount of frequency in terms of beating KK/AA is JT.

Infact, in this spot I think we will call a bet much more often then we will bet ourselves if we have any amount of reasonable showdown value. This is because the lack of bluffing hands we would have on the river given our action AND the amount of bluffing hands he may have given his line....

Re: QJs got there on river
 

just seems to me like we bluff/vb a worse hand more often than we call a river bet with a 9

Re: QJs got there on river
 

Our hand looks like a 9x type hand. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the majority of 1/2 players are checking behind fairly quickly with one of these type hands thanking their good fortune to being able to show down without putting more money in. I will also go out on a limb to say that the majority of 1/2 players will VB KK/AA here much more often then looking to induce given action leading up to river.

If the flush draw was a result of the flop being 2-tone rather then it being a result of the turn card then I would understand looking to trap with KK/AA more. As is though, the only other common draw besides for JT is 67. Seems thin for him to narrow our range in such a fashion that he can expect a bluff from us given the lack of floating hands we presumably have. And since he is most likely never folding KK/AA there is no point in checking in fear of the JT since he is paying it off anyways so he might as well just view this river strictly in terms of value. And betting holds more value then checking with KK+.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

i know that our hand looks like 9x..i'm asking how often 9x is calling another bet on the river? i seem to think it's less often then we bluff or VB a worse hand (like JQss for example lol)

if our hand is J9 and he fires river again, are you advocating a call?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

*grunch*
i thnk 2/3 pot is plenty on the river and i think smaller gets you looked up by TT/JJ more often. im not at all surpised to see villain snap call you here with AA/KK, which i think is a big chunk of villains range here

Re: QJs got there on river
 

I see we have a flush draw.
Villain bets flop, we need 10-1 to hit if he has a hand.
Villain bets turn, we need around 3-1 to hit if he has a hand.
If we are peeling here to stack a hand, then a river bet seems suicidal.
If we are peeling these to take pots away, we should put in a raise somewhere.

So, it boils down to, if river was an offsuit deuce, and villain checked, what is hero's line and why?
I think the play on this hand is completely inconsistent, and hero should check the river. I think if hero is betting this river, he should be raising turn.

Thoughts?

Re: QJs got there on river
 

calling the flop isn't standard, and making a play if villain slows down is certainly a good idea, but turning the FD added a ton of value to our hand, so there isn't really a need to raise..

betting the river (less than $88 though) is +EV imo, but very marginally, because he probably gets called by TT/JJ or a 9 slightly more often than villain has a better hand.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

60 imo

Re: QJs got there on river
 

To all that disagree with me,

1)What is the worst hand you will value bet with as HJ?
2)What makes you think you orange will bluff/VB the river given he has just CALLED 3 streets?
3)Does everybody see that this board is quite dry given how the cards came out and the lines taken?
4)Can we agree that a bluff by orange (if he had crap) is MUCH thinner then a VB by HJ?

early,

No, if we had J9 and HJ bet the river, I advocate a fold. That does not mean HJ knows this. Nor does this mean that we would ever VB it if checked to. Infact, if you advocate checking QJ because it seems thin then why would you ever contemplate betting J9? J9 does not = QJ here. I hope we all see that. The fact that TT/JJ makes up a significant portion of his range should clear that up. And if HJ thinks we would VB/bluff J9 here, then it should only make us want to bet the river even more.

I have said this numerous times but I will reiterate it one last time. At no point in the action did we give the impression that a)we didn't like our hand, b) we had second thoughts about calling down c)we would suddenly take control of the action if checked to.

To think we would suddenly wake up on the end only to make a VB seems odd given action and thus KK/AA would seem better off to bet his hand and hope we view him as triple barreling air rather then try to induce a thin VB out of us because we have given him nothing to believe such a thing would happen. The fact that we have a Q in our hand shouldn't affect this since our range of holdiings from his perspective carries minimal weight that we would have a Q in our hand by this point. Again, he is not folding with these stacks with KK/AA so even if he thinks we have Q8/Q9 he is going to pay us off. That being the case, there is no point in c/c'ng since he will miss value from Qx that checks behind but ALWAYS pay off when we bet. He might as well just bet himself to give himself the best opportunity to gain value.

Also, you cannot use that the read of him being 'TAGish' makes it less likely thatwe have an 8/9 yet he will be afraid to bet on this harmless river. Can't have it both ways. I really don't understand how this is as difficult as it is. Maybe I am just bad in articulating myself.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

Our hand is really well disguised if we hit on the river so I think calling the turn is fine. I'd bet like $60 on the river.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

The thing is, would you guys ever bet $60 here as a bluff? I chose $88 because I thought it would look more bluffy. As others have stated, there arent TOO many bluff combos here unfortunately, but I think that turning a made hand into a bluff could work sometiems here.

Re: QJs got there on river
 

59.95

Re: QJs got there on river
 

jloc,

you're missing what i'm saying..i'm not arguing for a fold, i advocated a bet earlier in the thread. i'm giving reasons why villain would check KK/AA here on the river.