Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

Villain is your typical chasing fish. 40/15 stats and seems to chase most draws.

I don't put him on 76 or an already made hand, because I think he would have bet the turn.

The river doesn't complete the obvious draws (heart draw, or a Ten). My read is I think he has a Ten. Do I get a hand like JT or T9 to fold here if I bet the river?

Anyone like a turn bet? I don't think a player like this folds to a turn bet, thus my decision to check (I was planning to fold if he bet).


Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $457.85
SB: $198
BB: $296
UTG: $332.60
Hero (CO): $199

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BTN calls $12

Turn: ($41) 5http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($41) Khttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
Hero ????


Thanks

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

If calling stations didn't call too much, they wouldn't be calling stations.

Check/fold, although if he checks behind you've often got a winner.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

He's not folding anything that is beating you on the turn or the river most likely with stats like that.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

I don't really see why you'd want to bluff here. I doubt he'd fold T9 and tbh I think this type of player calls wider than that.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imo, a player's tendencies tend not to vary by street. If a guy is a calling station preflop and on the flop, I think it's safe to assume he'll be a calling station on the later 2 streets.

People can only respond given the information provided too!

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

The very first line is "Villain is your typical chasing fish." Even without stats, do these guys like to fold?

If OP bluffs and the guy folds, OP probably had the best hand anyway. I'd rather c/c.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

yes and its not close. bet pot on the river will easily get enough folds from JT/ T9/ T8 etc to be worth it.

if he calls with some random pair make a note and dont do it again.

even most chasing stations dont like calling decent sized bets on the river without TP coz it makes them look stupid if they lose.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

I don't really like a river bet here. He'll call with any pair and you usually win against busted draws if you check it down anyway.
Also, this is an a terrible flop for cbetting and I would check-fold most of my range here. Although with AQ here, you do have a gutshot + overs so I guess a cbet isn't terrible.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

The people who are chasing draws are different from people who call big river bets, imo.

That being said, he could even have a set here. Unless you have a read where he raises with more than a pair, I think that's a great spot to check fold. Because I also think chasing fish don't really protect their hands.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

just check it

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imo, a player's tendencies tend not to vary by street. If a guy is a calling station preflop and on the flop, I think it's safe to assume he'll be a calling station on the later 2 streets.


[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true at all. This is a big problem that many SSNLers have, they assume that all 40/35s,or whatever, all play the same. PAhud is an extremely powerful tool that nobody takes the time to use beyond preflop.

[ QUOTE ]

People can only respond given the information provided too!

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my post. I said take a look at his calling frequency. I was simply stating how I determine whether or not to bet.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imo, a player's tendencies tend not to vary by street. If a guy is a calling station preflop and on the flop, I think it's safe to assume he'll be a calling station on the later 2 streets.


[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true at all. This is a big problem that many SSNLers have, they assume that all 40/35s,or whatever, all play the same. PAhud is an extremely powerful tool that nobody takes the time to use beyond preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that all players with similar stats play the same way. That is clearly incorrect. I said that a single player tends to play the same style across all streets. It is very rare to see a player who is a calling station preflop and on the flop, yet is a hyperaggro maniac or a nit on the river. Obviously this cannot be 'proven', and it's not a 'catch-all' never-fail rule, but I believe it holds reasonably true for the vast majority of players.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

People can only respond given the information provided too!

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my post. I said take a look at his calling frequency. I was simply stating how I determine whether or not to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I reread your post. And I also reread mine for the hell of it!! Knowing stuff like went to showdown, fold to river bet, river aggression, would be a big advantage, and I agree it helps making a more accurate decision.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

If you want to bluff you have to 3 barrel, betting the turn so he commits money with his pair+draw and then betting verybig on a blank river. He's not folding a pair with so many missed draws for one bet here.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

Depends on his went to showdown %. If it's 30+, I'm probably not bluffing here but with more normal % I'll bluff very often just because it's a great spot to bluff. He could have a lot of missed draws/crap pairs that will fold.

Edit: I might also c/c a smallish bet because donks will bluff here like always with any T, hearts, missed gutshots etc.

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

It's ridiculous here that everytime someone posts a bluff the automatic answer will always be " really bad, don't like blaah blaah..."

Re: Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's ridiculous here that everytime someone posts a bluff the automatic answer will always be " really bad, don't like blaah blaah..."

[/ QUOTE ]

That's because most people have no idea how to bluff at this level.