$119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

As you guys know I don't post hands very often, but this was a really interesting hand in my opinion. The most important part to me is rosedog's stack (he's utg). I like my play here in the BB but I think I also like the AJo call here with a thinking BB player. The reason it's hard to pull off this play successfully as the SB is because this situation essentially never comes up, and you have to have a lot of trust in your read on the BB.

After I shoved someone asked me if I thought the AJ call was good, and I initially said no because I don't remember the last time I squeezed in this situation without a real hand, and admittedly I was 1 tabling when I made this play, whereas I would almost always default fold while 10 tabling.

Thoughts on my play and the SB play?

Full Tilt Poker Game #4009118809: $110 + $9 Sit & Go (Turbo) (30475106), Table 1 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:33:18 ET - 2007/10/29
Seat 1: z32fanatic (5,515)
Seat 2: Rosedog (1,885)
Seat 4: ftbplaya_69 (3,145)
Seat 8: Jawarhalo (2,955)
Jawarhalo posts the small blind of 150
z32fanatic posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [8c 7h]
Rosedog folds
ftbplaya_69 raises to 900
Jawarhalo calls 750
z32fanatic raises to 5,515, and is all in
ftbplaya_69 has 15 seconds left to act
ftbplaya_69 folds
Jawarhalo calls 2,055, and is all in
z32fanatic shows [8c 7h]
Jawarhalo shows [Jc Ah]
Uncalled bet of 2,560 returned to z32fanatic

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Your play should depend on how light SB calls the first raise. Some players will only call in this spot with AA and others are retarded and will call with all sorts of crap that they can fold to a shove.

I don't care for SB's play at all with his hand. If he expects you to squeeze a ton, he's essentially guaranteeing himself a showdown when he could pick up 1200 chips by shoving.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I really don't like how you or the small blind played it. Once small blind calls the first time, he'll see his stack is about the same as the shorties and just call again with whatever hand he obviously thought was pretty and wanted to see a flop with before. Yes, in 2 hands Shortie will have 1400 while he has 2000 if he folds, but a if a guy doesn't try and reraise shove to try and grab some fold equity, I don't think we can give him enough credit to realize that. So, I think you get called almost all of the time here, and when you do get called, if you lose the hand you're third in chips instead of chiplead.

In small blind's spot I don't see why he didn't shove if he wanted to play the hand, but once he calls and you shove he's getting crazy odds without the much of a chip advantage on fourth so I think his second call is fine.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Lol at 300 blinds. Fold or shove for Jarwhalo.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Okay, so I did some math and now I like your shove. Some anticipated dead money makes a lot more difference than I anticipated, and 78 runs decent in 3 way pots when the dead money isn't there.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I don't like it and I think his call with AJ is good. Once he calls preflop he is the basically the short stack there is tons of overlay and he becomes chip leader if he wins. The thing is so many people will just think durrrrrr I have two face cards or I have a pair call. I like it a lot more if shorty is shorter.
Edit: Just thought about it more and realized there is so much overlay that you need like no FE for it be good since it will be +EV if you can get it HU with all this overlay. This is actually really interesting come someone post some math.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Your squeeze here was very aggressive and without having reads on the players I cannot say for certain whether it is right or wrong. With the button raising 3xBB and SB call I think I would have laid your junk down and hoped the 2 players fought to the death and one either bubbled or was left decimated.

If it was a minimum raise and call I would have liked your squeeze better. However, with chip stacks as they were it is not a dreadful attempt to steal and will work a good percentage of the time. And I do think his call with AJ is very loose and hopeful more than confident he has the best of it.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I think I'm basically getting 1.56-1 even if the button calls 100% of the time, meaning I have to win 39% of the time. I bet 87o doesn't win 39% of the time against his range, but that's given him folding literally never. Obviously he will fold some of the time which will make up for the fact that I have 87o. 87s appears to be an insta-shove because it fares so much better against AK/AQ/AJ/AT type hands.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I'm not a fan. People are just too dumb to fold (you can tell how good he is by his initial flat call). The button and SB's play were horrible. Push/fold for both of them.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

It's really hard to read people's raise/fold fractions, which is what determines the best play here. They seem to be largely random for most players, so I don't see that it makes much difference whether you push or fold there. It's sensitive enough to the ranges that there could be valid arguments either way and there's not a good way to resolve them.

SB would have to put you on a serious case of FPS to make the AJo call correct, and I don't see how the combination of

a) knowing that a call is correct only against a FPS-ing opponent and
b) reading you as such

could possibly exist.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I don't like this play just because both of them will fold so rarely, and yes you have a ton of dead $ in the pot, but the SB shows up here with huge hands often enough to really hurt your equity.

Ftbplaya is a donkey, his play was awful as it usually is, but Jawarhalo is actually decent, and I'm 95% sure that he was trying to stop n' go here.

This is a good play if the villains are donkeys, but replace one of the villains with a decent player and the range tightens up so much. If a good player open raises the button like this he is a) not folding b) generally very strong. If a decent player calls out of the small blind he is also rarely ever folding, and is either trapping or trying to stop n go. A good sb's cold calling range here is generally heavily weighted toward AA, and then something like 88-JJ, ATs+, and AJo+ if he's looking to stop n go.

Your equity against that range is just under 30%, and you need alot more dead $ to make the shove profitable.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I hate BB's play.
I hate SB's play.
I like hero's play.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate BB's play.
I hate SB's play.
I like hero's play.

[/ QUOTE ]
mmmmmm BB is the hero

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

With those blinds at that buy in I can't imagine a raise not being AA or KK and especially a flat call.

I am seriously impressed of how bad is the level.

Bottom line: if you had a strong read on weakness on both player then it's a different story otherwise I can't see how this can possibly be EV+.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan. People are just too dumb to fold (you can tell how good he is by his initial flat call). The button and SB's play were horrible. Push/fold for both of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

I am going to plead my newbie ignorance here to a degree. Was your intent with going all in to get him to fold? Was that your only objective? I could not seeing myself making that move in those circumstances. So I am just trying to understand what the goal was in that situation.

Were these guys just raising and calling with really bad cards?

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate BB's play.
I hate SB's play.
I like hero's play.

[/ QUOTE ]
mmmmmm BB is the hero

[/ QUOTE ]

opps. i mean i hate button's play.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

How it could have gone...



Full Tilt Poker Game #4016771374: $220+ $16 Sit & Go (Turbo) (30529623), Table 1 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:37:27 ET - 2007/10/30
Seat 2: z32fanatic (2,770)
Seat 3: the one423 (1,320)
Seat 5: joethemonkey (1,050), is sitting out
Seat 7: kylejf (4,025)
Seat 9: MFPlayer1 (4,335)
MFPlayer1 posts the small blind of 200
z32fanatic posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [Ts Tc]
the one423 has 15 seconds left to act
the one423 folds
joethemonkey folds
kylejf raises to 1,100
MFPlayer1 calls 900
z32fanatic raises to 2,770, and is all in
kylejf folds
MFPlayer1 folds
Uncalled bet of 1,670 returned to z32fanatic
z32fanatic mucks
z32fanatic wins the pot (3,300)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,300 | Rake 0
Seat 2: z32fanatic (big blind) collected (3,300), mucked
Seat 3: the one423 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: joethemonkey didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: kylejf (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: MFPlayer1 (small blind) folded before the Flop

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

You know damn well they only fold when you have a hand.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

standard.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Tweak the stacks a bit on the original and I think its good, the problem is all 3 of them are very close stack wise so your FE is going to be really small, although if there are regs here factoring in metagame its probably good since the gamble itself isnt very bad and it really enhances your "my bubble dont [censored] with me" image. All that to say in a vacuum I think its probably marginal in most cases you could push or fold, but throw in future games and its prob the right play.

I hate sbs flat here unless he's positive BBs reshoving and calling a shove ranges are virtually the same, which I dont think is the case here. Once it gets back around to him I think its a close call since he's even with the shorty and is getting great overlay, though I dont think hes doing THAT great against your range.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Now for a little context. This was the 3rd hand in a row that z pushed pre-flop and the fourth in a row that he raised pre-flop.

I thought I had a read on him, and he did exactly what I thought he would do.

Does that little bit of info change anything?

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Yes, that changes things. But I still think you're better off shoving taking the dead money or possibly going HU with ftbplaya - vs. definitely going HU vs. z32 with probably 2 live cards. But the math could be interesting. If ptb calls z32's shove, you fold right?

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

Yes, ftb's call is a fold for me. Which was my thinking in the flat call.

Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
 

With a player of your caliber in the BB, I push anything I decide to play as the button. My intuition is that the SB is better off pushing anything he decides to play, even with the significant possibility of you trying this move from the BB. If part of the reasoning is that button is just auto calling the SB shove but will fold if you squeeze, then I'd rather just fold. If button is autocalling I doubt he's opening light enough to essentially call all in. I'd push generally though. In your shoes, I'd be really concerned about the SB calling because his flat can either be a huge hand, an invitation for you to squeeze, or he just doesn't know what's he doing and calls/calls with a medium strength hand. It's very educational to consider the math behind making this play, but it's bizarre to me because I'm not opening or flatting 900 and folding to a raise against someone who knows what they're doing. I'm going to consider making this play more often. Apologies for no math.