Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

So here I am playing at PokerStars at 2NLHE tables and boom! The all awaited pocket aces appear just below my name. I raise, someone reraises, someone goes all-in, I call with lightning speed and the other dude also calls. We all had about a 50-100BB stack. Anyways... yadee yadee yada, I come out as the victor. Yay. Now, my next hand right after my big win with my pocket beauties... to my surprise, I get pocket aces again! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

<u>PREFLOP</u> (9 people at a 9-max table 2NLHE)
1st calls (stack: $1.16)
2nd calls (stack: $3.73)
Hero raises $0.10 to $0.12 (stack: $4.53)
3rd calls raise (stack: $8.24)
4th calls raise (stack: $2.83)
two ppl fold
5th calls raise (stack: $2.83)
1st calls raise
2nd calls raise

<u>FLOP</u> (pot: $0.73)
6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

5th dude bets $2.71 and is all-in
1st dude calls $1.04 and is all-in (and the pot is now $4.48 with $2.71 to call)
2nd dude folds
Hero?
<font color="red">Should I call? Or grow big balls and fold? I honestly was brought to a fork in the road... I didn't know what to do. Do you have the balls to fold pocket aces here? Are the balls even necessary to have here?</font>

Results: To be continued...

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

pretty standard fold at the higher levels I would think, the only hands you beat are donks going crazy with top top or an overpair like 99, but it's far more likely I would feel I was drawing next to dead again'st a flopped straight, two pair, or trips, and even if I was ahead of both of them somehow they obviously would have had redraws like no other, I would fold.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

easy fold

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

insta call

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Fold. Even if you're up against just a flush draw and just a straight draw + small pair for example, you're in a breakeven spot.




Board: 7c 6c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.51% 00.26% 16830 126.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.551% 34.29% 00.26% 16722 126.00 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.42% 00.26% 14832 126.00 { 97o }


You will also be dead against a set, or behind to two-pair a lot of the time.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA? *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by maSkraP

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

oooh, majority so far, folds. I also think that would be the best bet, but I shall give my reasons a bit later.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.51% 00.26% 16830 126.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.551% 34.29% 00.26% 16722 126.00 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.42% 00.26% 14832 126.00 { 97o }

[/ QUOTE ]

raze, I thank you for your post. It appears to be very insightful and educational. However, I'm afraid I don't understand those numbers. Could you (or anyone else) explain those numbers to me? How did you come up with those numbers? And also.. is it ideal to use those numbers while playing? Is it actually possible to come up with those numbers while at the table?

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the only hands you beat are donks going crazy with top top or an overpair like 99, but it's far more likely I would feel I was drawing next to dead again'st a flopped straight, two pair, or trips, and even if I was ahead of both of them somehow they obviously would have had redraws like no other, I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your reasoning thrasher789

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

He got those numbers by running your hand (AA) against other likely holdings of your opponents in situations like this by using a program called pokerstove, the first number I believe is the chance of that hand winning the pot (I think, I have never used the program before) and it shows that you are barely a favorite in this case if not already beaten or even drawing dead. Was this a real hand that you can sure the results of with us?

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Being 35% chance to win in a 3-way pot means you're putting your money in with about a neutral-expectation (33% would be neutral, 35% means you have a tiny advantage here as a best-case scenario.

Let me show you a worst-case scenario:

Hand 0: 04.393% 03.10% 01.29% 6048 2520.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 58.564% 57.27% 01.29% 111708 2520.00 { 54o }
Hand 2: 37.043% 35.75% 01.29% 69732 2520.00 { 88 }

AA is only going to win 4% of the time if we happen to be up against a set and a made straight.

Also note that we are so far behind here, the guy with 88 is in a profitable spot (37% chance to win the pot, having put in only 33% of the money 3-handed). He is in a good spot, because of our dead money, even against a made straight.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

At higher stakes I'd fold, but at NL2 where players are likely to get ai on the flop with top pair or overpairs it's a call.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Just the board alone is scary with the straight draw and the flush draw. But add in the action and it gets even scarier.

By the way, you did not tell us if you had the Ace of clubs to even give you a chance at the back door flush. Also, how big is your total bankroll? Not just what you had at the table, but your entire bankroll.

Personally, based on the board and the action and without knowing your total bankroll, I would fold.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also, how big is your total bankroll? Not just what you had at the table, but your entire bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, it is generally a bad idea to make decisions at the table based on the size of your bankroll.

While it could be right by a little to give up a small edge to avoid a large amount of variance, poker players are usually very bad at recognizing which gambles are marginal. Time and time again, people have used the avoidance of variance to justify avoiding a gamble that is far safer than playing ordinary poker.

It is also a bad idea to suggest that people need to declare their bankrolls (and risk tolerance, and strategy for moving up or down) in order to receive advice on hands.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

That depends on how important $2.71 is to you. That's about one gallon of gasoline. But it's all relative. If I were in the same situation at the stakes I normally play, everything larger relative to the stakes, I would insta-fold my aces. There are just too many hands that have you beat to risk your whole stack (3rd dude who has more than you is still to act). With five other players in the hand, it is at least two to one that someone already has your pair of aces beat (Aces against five random hands is only about 30% to win). All you have at the moment is one pair.

I recently sat down at $1/$2 NL table, and got dealt pocket aces three times in the first 20 minutes. The third time, I got them UTG. Since most pots were raised, I only called, planning on reraising preflop. Instead, I got six callers. Flop came 5-4-3, 2 suits. BB bet out - I insta-folded. I just knew there was no way my one-pair hand would be good. Eventually the flush won against a flopped straight.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, you did not tell us if you had the Ace of clubs to even give you a chance at the back door flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Also, I agree with pzhon.. I don't think your bankroll should justify how you play at the table. If you're playing right.. you should be playing at a table where you have sufficient bankroll to play in. But to alleviate your curiosity anyhow, I had 20+ buy-ins.

[ QUOTE ]
Was this a real hand that you can sure the results of with us?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it was. I shall share the results shortly... as for now, I have to go out for a bit. When I come back home later tonight, I will post the results. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And another note, thanks raze. I shall try and make more sense of your post once I come back.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That depends on how important $2.71 is to you. That's about one gallon of gasoline. But it's all relative. If I were in the same situation at the stakes I normally play, everything larger relative to the stakes, I would insta-fold my aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
If your goal is to win money, you will probably find it better not to worry about what the money can buy. Concentrate on making +EV decisions, not the size of those decisions. Later, you can be pleasantly surprised at how much all of your winnings can buy.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Even if you're up against just a flush draw and just a straight draw + small pair for example, you're in a breakeven spot.




Board: 7c 6c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.51% 00.26% 16830 126.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.551% 34.29% 00.26% 16722 126.00 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.42% 00.26% 14832 126.00 { 97o }




[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a break even spot. There is already money in the pot so you would have an overlay. Also, you might lose to the short stack, but beat the larger stack, and get most of your money back.

Paul

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a break even spot. There is already money in the pot so you would have an overlay. Also, you might lose to the short stack, but beat the larger stack, and get most of your money back.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true, my example oversimplifies the situation. However, my point is that in a best case scenario we are a slight favourite (unless we're against say two overpairs, but this is much, much more rare than the dozens of spots against draws and better hands OP could be in, similar to the one I demonstrated).

At best, we are a slight favourite plus a small overlay. At worst, we are 4% to win the pot from the flop. Our expectation for a flop call lies somewhere between slight favourite and huge underdog IMO.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Tough to say, someone could have a pocket pair or made the straight and overbet to protect them against a possible flush. It would depend on the read I have of the players.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

<u>RESULTS</u>

Hero folds
3rd dude calls the all-in. (he actually raised more.. making me have to go all-in to call if I called previously)
4th dude folds

<u>TURN TO RIVER </u>
6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

5th dude shows 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Eights)
3rd dude shows 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (full house, Seven full of Eights)
1st dude mucks hand

Although I would have won, I was behind a set and am glad to have folded (for in the long run, I believe this will definately save me money). The flop was definately scary and with that kind of all-in bet with another caller... I was definately afraid of a set, flush draw and straight draw. The reason why it took me a while to think about it was for the fact that there are so many ridiculous donks out there in 2NLHE and many of them would go all-in with crap just to scare people. But I guess that's not a big enough reason. Anyways, I folded and to the looks of it, I made the right call. Thanks guys for all your input. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reason why it took me a while to think about it was for the fact that there are so many ridiculous donks out there in 2NLHE and many of them would go all-in with crap just to scare people. But I guess that's not a big enough reason.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd never fold AA on the flop at 2NL, way too many donks.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

I like never folded AA until 100NL it's like -EV lol. the 678 flop is the classic example of when you should fold it, but don't go out of your way trying to make big folds at 2NL lol.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The reason why it took me a while to think about it was for the fact that there are so many ridiculous donks out there in 2NLHE and many of them would go all-in with crap just to scare people. But I guess that's not a big enough reason.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'd never fold AA on the flop at 2NL, way too many donks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not advocate this at anything but the lower limits...but an insta shove preflop is probably one of the better choices. Your going to get people with lower pp, any broadway cards...just my .02

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like never folded AA until 100NL it's like -EV lol. the 678 flop is the classic example of when you should fold it, but don't go out of your way trying to make big folds at 2NL lol.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where would I ever start learning then? Of course I don't treat the money all that seriously right now... however, I do treat my learning curve very seriously and I wouldn't want to make donk decisions simply b/c I know 2NLHE consists of a lot more donks than any other levels. Doing that, I'm pretty much categorizing myself like any other donks out there: never fold aces, never fold tptk, never fold 2 pair, etc... there are times when folding is VERY necessary and if I don't learn this now, I will never fully grasp it later.

[ QUOTE ]
an insta shove preflop is probably one of the better choices.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have shoved preflop if I were given the opportunity. However, I raised and people just called. I wouldn't shove right away... that is probably the donkest play ever because you are not getting full value with your premium hand.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Here's how I look at decisions like this (AA on a coordinated flop) - would my opponent move in on me with a hand of one-pair or less, given how I played my hand thus far?

If the answer is 'yes', then its a math problem against a fairly wide range (the most common one pair hand would be a combo with a draw)...and often is a call depending on how deep the stacks are.

If the answer is 'no' (they need at least two pair to shove), its a fold - you aren't likely getting the price you need to call.

These decisions are what makes NL both so sick and so much fun.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't want to make donk decisions simply b/c I know 2NLHE consists of a lot more donks than any other levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well believe it or not adapting to whoever is at the table is actually how you should be playing. This is also why what you learn here will be meaningless later, which is why people aren’t giving very serious responses. You can’t learn a set strategy of ‘fold AA on this board’ in isolation. If anything, I would say that, at 2NL, never folding AA isn’t that bad advice.

In any case, this seemed like a pretty thinly veiled brag post on the lines of ‘I correctly-folded-but-would-have-won-with-AA’ so that’s why I didn’t put too much effort into the first post.

If you really want to know, AA is a fairly simple fold in most situations on this type of flop because you’ll be well behind their range (behind set, straight and two pair, and flipping with straight flush draw, pair and straight draw, pair and flush draw, ahead of overpairs if they play it that badly and bluffs)

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Thanks jcl. That's more of a response i was looking for. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

Yuck.

If you have any respect at all for 5th and/or 1st fold. If not call. If you have no read on the players -- at this level, I probably assume fish until proven otherwise, so call.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

I would say if this is the kind of player willing to put it all out there with TPNK, this is not the only time he will make this play. Wait for a better situation and you will get his money, if he lasts that long. You are playing behind him most hands, so enter pots he is in with more marginal holdings in an effort to outflop him. You don't have to win every pot, just make sure your money is good going into the big ones.

Analysis:
In this hand, you definitely couldn't be sure you have the odds to call, especially with the call by the first guy. While he is growing the pot, he is a potential additional drawer if not already ahead. You are now afraid of being behind a made hand already, or are bucking one or both hands with 2 clubs, with 2 spades, with a lone 4,5,6,7,8,9, or 10, and more distantly, one club in their hand for runner-runner. Remember, they are all-in, so you can't extract more money if your hand improves and you can't make them fold their draws.

Well played.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

I fold here.

You don't make it that clear but there are players in the pot behind you still to act right?

Given the action, and the fact that your AA will still likely be a pair by the river, you can't expect to win this type of pot very often. You've lost 0.12 here which is better than losing the rest of your stack which seems likely.

Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You've lost 0.12 here which is better than losing the rest of your stack which seems likely.

[/ QUOTE ]I like the way you put it PantsOnFire. Thanks.