local pub parlay cards
 

like most pubs, my local offers weekly parlay cards. the thing is, some of the lines are so far off, i feel like i'm being offered a teaser at parlay prices. for instance, this week, pats are -20 vs washington, tampa bay is +3 (was that a typo or did the line really move that much?) vs jacksonville, and indi is -10 vs carolina. and that's just pro ball.

so, my two questions are:
a) can i post every week looking for advice? i know little about the nfl, and nothing about college ball, but figure there's gonna be enough bad lines to find a profitable card each week.

b) is this honorable? these things are supposed to be for little more than bragging rights and here i am trying to beat the system as hard as i can

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

for what it's worth, my pick this week was
wisconson -7 v indiana
pittsburg -13 v louisville
auburn -17 v mississippi
tampa ba +3 v jacksonville
washington +20 v new england

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

post the skewed lines.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Comparing to pinnaclesports.com lines and betting the biggest deviants is not a bad starting strategy.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Just remember, these are the people who serve you alcohol. You do not want to piss them off. Roughing them up a little bit is ok though.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

I don't think you should feel bad about winning money from folks who are dealing those kinds of lines to drunk squares.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
like most pubs, my local offers weekly parlay cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, this is common? Like people can bet at their local bars? Where do you all live? Maybe I look like a cop or something.

Anyway, OP, just bet all the deviant lines.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

op, plz post the parlay odds as well. they are brutal. they round all of the lines to common/even numbers. and ties are obviously losses.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

you're very correct, sir. the rounding seems to be at random, too. anyway, the lines are:

4 teams 10-1
5 teams 15-1
6 teams 25-1
7 teams 50-1
8 teams 100-1
9 teams 200-1
10 teams 300-1
9 out of 10 teams 20-1

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Ties lose obviously????

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

10-teamers have the best expectation.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Under what assumptions? I get that 4-teamers are better if every game is a coin flip.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Assume >53.6% probability.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

I know what expectation is. My point is that you are wrong if every game is won with probability 0.5. Since OP makes it sound like he can do better than this, and since you generally know what you're talking about, I figured you assigned some other probability and answered based on that.

This is known by several names, including "exposition," "answering the question," and "not being a jackass."

Please tell me a condition under which 10-teamers have the highest expectation.

(edit: okay, you did)

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

OK, you're right, if every game has p=.50, then your least bad option is a 4-teamer. It's also slightly better to buy a scratch-off ticket than to drop a dollar bill in a flask of sulfuric acid, but that doesn't mean either option is advisable. I always make the mistake of assuming you people are interested in advantage play.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Well, that condition obviously matters a lot, because that's what determines if OP should be playing this or not. So just saying "10-teamers have the highest expectation" doesn't really help all that much without elaboration.

I was interested in how good you had to be in order to make this +EV, and like you, I get that it's about 53.7%. 10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.

So yeah, if you're able to win at all, you'll do best playing 10-teamers.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?


also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
so my next question is how much is the line being off worth? for instance, assuming that the line on the pats redskin game is correct at skins +16, how much is being able to bet them at +20 worth in ev?


also, yes, ties lose. and furthermore i am unfortunatly not able to bet these lines on a single game basis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have Sharp Sports Betting in front of me but this info is in there. Each number has a different value. For example, moving from 3 to 3.5 is bigger than 7 to 7.5 is bigger than other moves. Because ties lose, you can treat +20 as +19.5...

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

TB,

This should help:
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Caliente's Parlay Card "Underdogs"

Rams +3.5
Lions +5.5
Panthers +7.5
Dolphins +10.5
Raiders +7.5
Vikings +1.5
Bengals +3.5
Bills +2.5
Texans +10.5
Jaguars +4.5
49ers +2.5
Redskins +17.5
Packers +3.5
-
Min bet: 1us
Max bet: 200us

Min Picks: 3
Max Picks: 15
-

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're very correct, sir. the rounding seems to be at random, too. anyway, the lines are:

4 teams 10-1
5 teams 15-1
6 teams 25-1
7 teams 50-1
8 teams 100-1
9 teams 200-1
10 teams 300-1
9 out of 10 teams 20-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard payouts and ties lose. The rounding is NOT random. Notice how many 3 and 7 point lines the cards have. This is because ties lose. The other lines are off because the guy selling these knows which teams are more likely to be picked often. New England is hot, make them 20 and he'll still get more circles on NE.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]

0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

Here my "Have Fun"
12 Team -Parlay Card- NFL Week 8.

Rams +3.5
Lions +5.5
Panthers +7.5
Dolphins +10.5
Titans -7.5
Eagles -1.5
Bengals +3.5
Jets -2.5
Texans +10.5
Jaguars +4.5
49ers +2.5
Redskins +17.5

Risk $5 to win $10,000

Now lets have fun.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]

0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving:

10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p))

Where am I going wrong?

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]

0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving:

10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p))

Where am I going wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

I deleted the spreadsheet, but without giving it much thought it seems like you're ignoring the probability that you lose your stake.

Re: local pub parlay cards
 

That must be correct, and I have NO idea how it didn't occur to me since this is a pretty standard calculation I have done a zillion times. Thanks.