*** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Post positions have been drawn. Time to start handicapping!

Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge
Saturday, October 27 • Monmouth Park • ESPN • 5:35 p.m. ET
$5,000,000 • 1 1/4 miles • 3yo and up

Post Horse ML Odds
1 Lawyer Ron 5-2
2 Street Sense 3-1
3 Any Given Saturday 4-1
4 Curlin 3-1
5 George Washington (IRE) 20-1
6 Awesome Gem 30-1
7 Diamond Stripes 15-1
8 Hard Spun 8-1
9 Tiago 12-1

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post positions have been drawn. Time to start handicapping!

Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge
Saturday, October 27 • Monmouth Park • ESPN • 5:35 p.m. ET
$5,000,000 • 1 1/4 miles • 3yo and up

Post Horse ML Odds
1 Lawyer Ron 5-2
2 Street Sense 3-1
3 Any Given Saturday 4-1
4 Curlin 3-1
5 George Washington (IRE) 20-1
6 Awesome Gem 30-1
7 Diamond Stripes 15-1
8 Hard Spun 8-1
9 Tiago 12-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Winnah!

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

one of my favorite days of the year...okay, not really, but it's damn fun to be a degenerate over the 10 races...

last year, i had the odds/writeup of every race in front of me, listened to hammerin' hank, and then bolted upstairs to put a couple bucks on every race via bodog...

last race of last year, i forget the horse names, but i DO remember hitting the exacta...

1 horse led the whole way, the other snuck into 2nd right in the last few feet...

good times..

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

My selections on some of the races. All my futures are working. Post my exactas and tris later.
Classic-Street Sense
Turf C- English Channel (6-1 in Future Book)
Distaff-Lear's Princess (8-1 in FB)
Mile- Kip Deville (8.5 in FB)
Juv C- Tale of Ekati (8-1 in FB)
Juv F-Indian Blessing
Juv Turf- Prussian ( 12-1 in FB)

Word to the wise. DONT bet the BC futures on Bodog now. It's not worth it. Wait for race day. Odds wont be much different and you wont lose your money on horses that scratch. Plus wagering on race day you earn the 3-5% bonus on money wagered. Props still fun of course. I played the under on $42.00 Pari payout. Good luck.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

I took AGS at 5-1 online and my friend who nailed the KD and Belmont took Curlin at 4-1 online.

I'll pick more with my exacta and tri bets later. No value in LawRon at 5-2.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Also, McDynamo was stunning in his 5th straight BC Steeplechase. Cruised over final jump and no one else was near.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I took AGS at 5-1 online and my friend who nailed the KD and Belmont took Curlin at 4-1 online.

I'll pick more with my exacta and tri bets later. No value in LawRon at 5-2.

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I like Curlin and the race may set up well for him at MP. SS and Tiago will have too much ground to make up.

***WEATHER WILL PLAY A BIG PART***

Take a look at the forecasts. Scattered rain is likely in New Jersey Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Could play a big part in the races this year as the rain may be heavy at times. It will be interesting to see how the turf course holds up if the rain materializes.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

very heavy rains today/tonite in NJ area.

Very key to watch for the weather on race day.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, McDynamo was stunning in his 5th straight BC Steeplechase. Cruised over final jump and no one else was near.

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I read the story and am envious you got to see the race in person. The most fun I have ever had at the races was watching the jumpers at Listowel, Ireland.

I heard the BC has 10 cent superfectas in every race this year!?

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I heard the BC has 10 cent superfectas in every race this year!?

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Yes they do. They also have 2 Friday/Saturday doubles.



If you play pick-3's, you should know that the takeout is 25%. It's only 15% on pick-4's. That really sucks imo.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

I like Grasshoppa in today's race as he just barely lost in his last outing being a heavy favorite.

In the Big one, I like street sense

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The umbrellas are open today - and all races are off the turf at Monmouth Park.

Anybody think Better Talk Now has a chance in the Turf Saturday?

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, McDynamo was stunning in his 5th straight BC Steeplechase. Cruised over final jump and no one else was near.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read the story and am envious you got to see the race in person. The most fun I have ever had at the races was watching the jumpers at Listowel, Ireland.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're within 2-3 hrs of NJ, you should come next year. It is so much fun, really unbelievable. Best tailgate party ever for adults, even better than Fla v GA.

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hey guys me and Jeffage and another friend of ours are going to breeders Sat. Def way excited, but no nothing about any of these horses. So il def be checking out everyones picks on here. Hopefully you can make me some money. Also if and of you have any thoughts on other races Sat let me know, i gotta get a lot of action in

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
hey guys me and Jeffage and another friend of ours are going to breeders Sat. Def way excited, but no nothing about any of these horses. So il def be checking out everyones picks on here. Hopefully you can make me some money. Also if and of you have any thoughts on other races Sat let me know, i gotta get a lot of action in

[/ QUOTE ]

I was at Churchill Downs last year and it was a beautiful day.

I hope for your sake it doesn't rain too much Saturday. I am analyzing the pp's and will post up a bunch of ideas to be considered tonight. Remember, the great thing about the Breeder's Cup is you don't need to bet a lot to win a lot - if you are going to dip into the exotic pools. gl.

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I want exotics, exotics, exotics and I want to win, win, win! I'm more excited about this than I have been for a sporting event in quite awhile. I am going to drink myself sick and hopefully take down a big trifecta to combat the ball-crushing of the Borgata two weeks ago!

I can't wait until you people who know more about the ponies than me post your picks! Thanks in advance!


Jeff

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

70% rain.
Make sure you use Hard Spun in exotics, Monmouth favors front-runners and today NONE of the horses ever came off the lead to win in the mud. HS has won on sloppy tracks before as well.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
70% rain.
Make sure you use Hard Spun in exotics, Monmouth favors front-runners and today NONE of the horses ever came off the lead to win in the mud. HS has won on sloppy tracks before as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good advice. Especially if HS is at all patient and can sit off LR the first half of the race.

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Just to get you started, the Juvenile races have always been a good place to go after price horses. Many of the touted favorites have not really been tested yet and so offer poor value. That said:

Race 4) Juvenile Fillies

3 - Tasha's Miracle 10-1
David Flores has been a really hot rider of late
This horse has solid gate speed and good post to use it
Had a tough trip first time routing last out
Others look better, she may be overlooked at the windows


Race 5) Juvenile

4 - Slew's Tiznow 15-1
Good gate speed
Should get position on the hip of War Pass
Caught up 4-wide in a slow pace at Keeneland last out
Julien Leparoux sticks
Last workout was impressive

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George Washington is a sick sick horse but i would think that being from Ireland and seeing him run previously. 20/1 odds for him are brilliant and they wouldn't be bringing him over if they didn't think he had a chance, but i'm no expert. He has had a few injuries though and i think and he hasn't performed at his best in a few races, but if he runs well he will go very very close. IMO value for money maybe an each way bet is best. Was 6th in breeders cup last year didn't run at his best i think. Has also won some of the major races over here obv

I have no clue about American Horse Racing but Dylan Thomas is a lock in the turf race thats all i know IF he performs, maybe 7/5 are the odds i seen i'm not sure. He's won the Irish derby, Arc de triomphe (biggest race in Europe), Irish champion stakes, came close in Epsom derby got a bad race and won the King George VI and Elizabeth stakes, he has a rating of 127 with the closest contender being at 117. Hasn't run in America yet i don't think so you never know and i hear the horse called English channel knows the course well so maybe that will be the forecast (1&2) in that race. He's considered as one of the great horses over here anyways and horse racing is very strong here in Ireland & UK. Probably would have been considered the best had he won the Epsom derby

My bets are: George Washington E/W & Dylan Thomas FTW

But as i say i know nothing about any of yer horses so don't listen to me lol just saying what i know about the Irish interest in the race

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
George Washington is a sick sick horse but i would think that being from Ireland and seeing him run previously. 20/1 odds for him are brilliant and they wouldn't be bringing him over if they didn't think he had a chance, but i'm no expert. He has had a few injuries though and i think and he hasn't performed at his best in a few races, but if he runs well he will go very very close. IMO value for money maybe an each way bet is best. Was 6th in breeders cup last year didn't run at his best i think. Has also won some of the major races over here obv

I have no clue about American Horse Racing but Dylan Thomas is a lock in the turf race thats all i know IF he performs, maybe 7/5 are the odds i seen i'm not sure. He's won the Irish derby, Arc de triomphe (biggest race in Europe), Irish champion stakes, came close in Epsom derby got a bad race and won the King George VI and Elizabeth stakes, he has a rating of 127 with the closest contender being at 117. Hasn't run in America yet i don't think so you never know and i hear the horse called English channel knows the course well so maybe that will be the forecast (1&2) in that race. He's considered as one of the great horses over here anyways and horse racing is very strong here in Ireland & UK. Probably would have been considered the best had he won the Epsom derby

My bets are: George Washington E/W & Dylan Thomas FTW

But as i say i know nothing about any of yer horses so don't listen to me lol just saying what i know about the Irish interest in the race

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree with most of this. I just hope they dont give either horse lasix (or whatever its called).

20/1 on George Washington is a ridiculous price, best price with the Ire/UK bookmakers is 10s, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing it at that.

Even money about Dylan Thomas is too short for me, he'd become a OK wager at 2s. On firm ground and given a fast pace he a has a devistating turn of foot that few can live with. He's just to quircky to bet at 1/1.

Come on the Irish!!!

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

A lot of people are having Dylan as their single. I'm taking a little shot with English Channel(got 6-1 in the futures). I think it's his year. Loves Monmouth.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
George Washington is a sick sick horse but i would think that being from Ireland and seeing him run previously. 20/1 odds for him are brilliant and they wouldn't be bringing him over if they didn't think he had a chance, but i'm no expert. He has had a few injuries though and i think and he hasn't performed at his best in a few races, but if he runs well he will go very very close. IMO value for money maybe an each way bet is best. Was 6th in breeders cup last year didn't run at his best i think. Has also won some of the major races over here obv

I have no clue about American Horse Racing but Dylan Thomas is a lock in the turf race thats all i know IF he performs, maybe 7/5 are the odds i seen i'm not sure. He's won the Irish derby, Arc de triomphe (biggest race in Europe), Irish champion stakes, came close in Epsom derby got a bad race and won the King George VI and Elizabeth stakes, he has a rating of 127 with the closest contender being at 117. Hasn't run in America yet i don't think so you never know and i hear the horse called English channel knows the course well so maybe that will be the forecast (1&2) in that race. He's considered as one of the great horses over here anyways and horse racing is very strong here in Ireland & UK. Probably would have been considered the best had he won the Epsom derby

My bets are: George Washington E/W & Dylan Thomas FTW

But as i say i know nothing about any of yer horses so don't listen to me lol just saying what i know about the Irish interest in the race

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you know about Grand Couturier?

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Race 6) Filly and Mare Turf

Nashoba's Key is 7-for-7, winning four of her last five by less than one length. The key is they have all been in California. Honey Ryder prefers firm turf.

The pick here is the 4 - Passage of Time.
This horse ran third last out in a very fast G1 race in France
Ramon Dominguez was selected as the rider because of his experience at Mth
Plenty of experience at the distance

Horses I like with her:

10 - Arravale
30-1 ML is too high. She has raced against the boys. Was a horse of the year in Canada in 2006

5 - Wait a While
Was fourth in this race last year

3 - Nashoba's Key

9 - Danzon
Will be running late and should like the going
Julien Leparoux

8 - Timarwa
She had a colic Monday morning and missed some feed. Trainer says she is looking a little light. Her last two were nice efforts in IRE

1 - All My Loving
Has burned a lot of money
Adds blinkers for O'Brien

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Race 7) Sprint

You always need some luck in the sprint.

Baffert's horse 2 - Midnight Lute is working huge. He likes to settle in a little off the pace and then pounce. The likely favorite but that's who I like.

If betting the race, you might look for the 10 - Greg's Gold to miss the ticket. This horse is in GREAT FORM and should have won his last easily were it not for Espinoza getting him boxed in a five horse race!? Notice his last trip out of California didn't work out very well and his big races this year have all been on cushion/polytrack.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Race 8) Mile

This race looks very competitive. The turf course is a 7f oval and the obvious pick drew post 13. No horse has ever won from post 13 or 14, but it is not impossible. Note that there may be late scratches due to the condition of the course and that would move the favorite inside a bit.

This is a race that always seems to be very close and exciting. And there are a number of horses in here to avoid because they seem to prefer firm ground. Here are some ideas:

8 - Kip Deville
This is his distance
Trainer Dutrow thinks he is the one to beat
He beat Tagg's Showing Up at a mile last spring

13 - Excellent Art
Likely favorite for good reason

7 - Cosmonaut
Good form, good works, J Lep

10 - My Typhoon
I think this horse is dangerous shortening up for Mott
She is going against the boys, but could be big price

14 - Remarkable News
Must be respected, but also likes to fire out of gate and will need a good trip from outside post

9 - Nobiz Like Shobiz
Will get some play 3-for-3 on grass, but is facing older horses for the first time and all his wins have come on firm turf

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Race 9) Distaff

If any dirt race sets up for a closer it is this one. Plenty of front end speed.

I like the 11 - Unbridled Belle.
Ramon is back riding
She is a big, tough filly who will love to run at 'em

Notice that 10 - Indian Vale is 6-for-7 at the distance.

Longshot: 9 - Teammate Allen Jerkens.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Race 10) Turf

Aidan O'Brien says 7 - Dylan Thomas is sharp as ever. He is considered the world's number one at this distance. The only thing of interest is that no Arc winner has ever won a Breeders Cup race, but that may just be one of those meaningless statistics.

6 - English Channel is very consistent, but I don't see how you can play him to win. If Dylan stayed in the starting gate I still wouldn't like EC to win.

2 - Red Rocks
Has only matured since winning this race last year

5 - Grand Couturier
In great form
Borel will be patient and could easily get a piece

3 - Better Talk Now
Hard not to root for the old man
Likely will not get the pace he needs

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Race 11) Classic

For those of you who are fans of 8 - Hard Spun, you should know this will be his last race. It is sad to think it may be the last race for several others in the race as well.

Looks like a great race this year with 1 - Lawyer Ron and HS running together on the front. You should go with your gut on this one. I think the winner will be either 4 - Curlin or 3 - Any Given Saturday. Pletcher has pointed AGS to the Classic and truly believes he is a 1 1/4 horse.

I have heard 9 - Tiago would love the mud, but it is still hard to see him coming from off the pace against this field.

Discussion?

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Good Analysis TripleH. Here are my picks:

F/M Sprint:
La Traviata (5-2) to win.
Exactas with Oprah Winney (6-1)

Juvenile Turf:
Exacta box: Cherokee Triangle (10-1), Prusssian (3-1) and Texas Fever (30-1).

Dirt Mile:
Win and place on Park Avenue Ball (15-1). Savers with Discreet Cat (2-1)

Juvenile Fillies:
Proud Spell (5-1) to win and place. Large. Small bets on longshot Smarty Deb (30-1)

Juvenile:
Tough race. Exacta box Pyro (6-1), War Pass (5-2) and Wicked Style (10-1).

F/M Turf:
Wait a While (4-1) to win. Savers with Honey Rider (9-2), Argentina (12-1) and Passage of Time (7-2).

Sprint:
This is always a race that produces giant payouts. I really like Talent Search (15-1) to win and place.

Mile:
Excellent Art (3-1) and Remarkable News (12-1) were my picks until they drew the outside. Still not sure what to do.

Distaff:
Very competitive race. Ginger Punch (7-2) to win. Small.

Turf:
Taking a shot on Grand Couturier (10-1) to Win. Exacta box with Dylan Thomas (7-5).

Classic:
This should be a great race. Winner is most likely Horse of the Year. Curlin(3-1) is clearly the horse to beat. Medium win bets on him. Also Awesome Gem (30-1) to win and place.

Good luck!!

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

As much as i hate to say it because i don't usually bet chalk (unless it seems like value) -- my favorite horse of the weekend is discreet cat. his connections used the vosburgh as a prep for this race, and he blew out a 57 sec 5 furlong work earlier in the week. it seems like they have him sitting on a big race. Also, at monmouth the mile is run around 2 turns and the inside posts have a huge tactical advantage because the run to the first turn is very short. (they actually extended this race to a mile + 70 yards because of this). Discreet Cat has Post 1. Plus his last two races have cast a shadow over his form so you might actually get the 2-1.
good luck.

fidobuster.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
As much as i hate to say it because i don't usually bet chalk (unless it seems like value) -- my favorite horse of the weekend is discreet cat. his connections used the vosburgh as a prep for this race, and he blew out a 57 sec 5 furlong work earlier in the week. it seems like they have him sitting on a big race. Also, at monmouth the mile is run around 2 turns and the inside posts have a huge tactical advantage because the run to the first turn is very short. (they actually extended this race to a mile + 70 yards because of this). Discreet Cat has Post 1. Plus his last two races have cast a shadow over his form so you might actually get the 2-1.
good luck.

fidobuster.

[/ QUOTE ]

6:5 and he wins unless the jockey jumps off?

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Live Longshot on FM Sprint:
Wild Gams at 10-1 or better. Combine with Dream Rush for high-paying exactas. WG has won 7x under 7 furlongs, nice acceleration and quick feet when a hole opens up in front of her. 10-1 is too good to pass up.

Dirt Mile:
Xchanger and Discreet Cat. DC too big of a wild card to bet heavy on. Xchanger loves a wet track. Absolutely pouring down rain here today if you didn't already know.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

Maryfield bet up to 8-1 due to hitting 3 of 4 in the rain. Must use in all exotics.
WG/DR in tix, Maryfield boxed with OW, LaT in others.
Tri box DR/LaT/Mary up top and WG/OW at bottom.

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Live Longshot on FM Sprint:
Wild Gams at 10-1 or better. Combine with Dream Rush for high-paying exactas. WG has won 7x under 7 furlongs, nice acceleration and quick feet when a hole opens up in front of her. 10-1 is too good to pass up.

Dirt Mile:
Xchanger and Discreet Cat. DC too big of a wild card to bet heavy on. Xchanger loves a wet track. Absolutely pouring down rain here today if you didn't already know.

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Soupy! I am really glad because a friend of mine and I were considering setting up a weekend trip back in the summertime. I guess we should go to California next year!

Thanks. Keep your thoughts coming.
This is my last race betting weekend of the year!

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[ QUOTE ]
Maryfield bet up to 8-1 due to hitting 3 of 4 in the rain. Must use in all exotics.

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and Maryfield goes 4 for 5 in the rain. Great finish.

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Gio Ponti my pick for the next race, Prussian is good but not taking the fave in the rain. Gio Ponti 8-1 or better online, is 5-1 at the track now.
GP
Achill Island
Prussian
tri box

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Maryfield bet up to 8-1 due to hitting 3 of 4 in the rain. Must use in all exotics.

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and Maryfield goes 4 for 5 in the rain. Great finish.

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Starting in a puddle of water they go :21.1 to the half!?

Re: *** Official Breeders\' Cup Thread ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maryfield bet up to 8-1 due to hitting 3 of 4 in the rain. Must use in all exotics.

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and Maryfield goes 4 for 5 in the rain. Great finish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Starting in a puddle of water they go :21.1 to the half!?

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Yep, insane, set up perfectly for Maryfield. My buddy told me to put Miss Mary Sue in my ticket and I didn't listen. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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FMTurf tomorrow, look out for Arravale, 30-1 shot on opening line but last year she won G1 race on soft mushy track. If this weather keeps up, could be huge.