10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

Villain is a Bellagio regular, Jay. I'd never played with him before but had been on his left for about three hours when this hand occured. I haven't been out of line and neither has he. The only hand I've shown down in a big pot was the NF on an a-high paired board against an EP raiser where the a-3-3 flop was checked around and I just called his turn bet when I made my hand and value-bet the blank river when it was checked to me.

We're seven handed when this hand takes place, and I noticed that he had switched gears and was playing a little faster than earlier.


He limps UTG (i thought he was in the BB) and I raise QQ to $100 UTG+1. Folds back to him and he raises to $400. He has about $1700 behind after the raise and I cover. I call.


Flop

10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


He shoves $1700 into $800.


A couple of things; I'm sure he thinks I wont flat call with AA or KK pf very often, so he probably assumes I have TT-AK. After a few hours of play and a little discussion he probably assumes I'm capable of folding a big hand. In live poker huge overbets are more often a nut hand than a bluff, but he seemed capable of putting me on QQ-JJ and expecting me to lay it down to this board/action.


Thoughts on preflop appreciated, as well as the flop decision.




-Tex

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

I don't think I can fold QQ here because I'm curious to what he has (considering he's a regular). If he has it, then he has it.

Also, I don't think he would play AA this way since live players weren't be afraid of a turn/river ace. But then again, what a freaking weird way to play KK.

My head is asplode thinking. Flip a coin. If you have the Qh, then flip a two-heads coin.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

does he have a shaved head? this is almost always a fold unless u got a sick read. this line is Aces like 90% of the time.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

i think it is fair to say that if he is shoving hands that you are ahead of, they are hands that have decent equity. namely flush draws and 2 overcards.

giving him a looser shoving range acounting for some pf semibluffs:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.425% 45.85% 01.57% 83070 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.575% 51.00% 01.57% 92400 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh, AKo }

giving him a tight shoving range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.539% 26.95% 02.59% 29610 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 70.461% 67.87% 02.59% 74580 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh }


which ranges from slightly +ev to fairly -ev. i think its a fold because of the positions preflop, and the fact that he will seriously never show up with like 56ss or any hand where you have >70% equity really.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

I am assuming this is Jay with the shaved head and Buddy Holly glasses. Preflop this is a tossup given the stack sizes and utg limp rr. Usually AA KK but you have position and you said he has been playing a little fast so ok.
I can't imagine him shoving AA here on the flop because he has to put you on jj-kk ak here and why would he want you to fold that on this flop. KK would be a little odd to shove here also because he prob doesnt put you on AA so same concept you have 2 outs or 3 outs.
I could see him doing this with akh or aqh and possibly jj from my experience with him.
I don't know seems like toss up but the fact that it is 7 handed, he has been playing fast, and he thinks you are capable of laying down big hands probably swings this towards a pretty easy call. If he has aa kk nh.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

I dont think you can call PF and fold on this flop. If you called, it is because you think he has enough other hands besides AA/KK to make it profitable and I don't think the flop bet changes any of that, especially if he thinks you might lay down QQ/JJ to the bet. With AA or KK he probably bets smaller.
If you can fold somewhere, its PF not on the flop.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

I dunno about your read in live games, but if were going to fold this flop, then we should fold pre. And i'm not folding pre

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

If it's Jay, skinny white guy, shaved head and black emo glases, then this is not JJ, like ever. He probably has AKhh, AA, KK or some random hand like JTss that nailed the flop. I've never seen him overbet like this before either and we've played quite a bit together.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

i was thinking it was the same guy, at worst he has AKhh, the only other time i seen him overbet like this was when he flopped quads

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

My thoughts on this hand are kind of different, mostly just because I suck at live poker.

I'm gonna go ahead and assume he rarely LRRs with JJ-...?
So we're up against KK+, or something weird like a suited connector/gapper/etc.. with this in mind, I call pf with intentions of re-evaluating things on the flop.

On the flop, I can see him making the play with AA/KK. I don't see him making this play with any of his weird garbage hands that completely miss the flop, only [censored] that you're at best 50/50 with.

So yeah, I call pf and fold the flop... which I don't think is all that unreasonable. You don't expect your opponent to open-shove 2x+ pot like this very often.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think it is fair to say that if he is shoving hands that you are ahead of, they are hands that have decent equity. namely flush draws and 2 overcards.

giving him a looser shoving range acounting for some pf semibluffs:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.425% 45.85% 01.57% 83070 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.575% 51.00% 01.57% 92400 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh, AKo }

giving him a tight shoving range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.539% 26.95% 02.59% 29610 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 70.461% 67.87% 02.59% 74580 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh }


which ranges from slightly +ev to fairly -ev. i think its a fold because of the positions preflop, and the fact that he will seriously never show up with like 56ss or any hand where you have >70% equity really.

[/ QUOTE ]the 'tight range' u gave should be the 'loose range'

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

hmm, i figured he pretty much always shoved something like AKs or hearts if he got to the flop this way (given read that hero thinks his hand is face up and never KK+). do you think that is unreasonable for a live player?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

what would everyone do in OP's spot with AA or KK? i would almost definitely flat call the lrr. people are saying villain wouldn't expect us to have AA/KK much but why would we raise those hands after his lrr?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

i mean i wouldnt 4bet KK+, but op stated otherwise shrug.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

min4bet KK+ is kinda hot.. specially if you do it "by accident"..

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

lol how would you min4bet by accident live?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol how would you min4bet by accident live?

[/ QUOTE ]

fake live misclicks are sooooo much fun... just accidentally put in a bigger chip than you should to call, dont say anything, and look really confused when the dealer tells you you just raised.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

one-chip-rule?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol how would you min4bet by accident live?

[/ QUOTE ]

fake live misclicks are sooooo much fun... just accidentally put in a bigger chip than you should to call, dont say anything, and look really confused when the dealer tells you you just called.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
hmm, i figured he pretty much always shoved something like AKs or hearts if he got to the flop this way (given read that hero thinks his hand is face up and never KK+). do you think that is unreasonable for a live player?

[/ QUOTE ]y didnt u include 9h2h?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rob, I disagree with this completely, and in reference I'm going to use one of the best posts on poker I have ever seen, Gigabet's "Almost there with Sucess and Failure" (linked at the end). Poker is a game of incomplete information and he who is the best at analyzing bits and pieces of it as they come in and responding correctly - at the end - wins. So we get limp-raised pre-flop and some warning bells should be going off, but QQ is still the 3rd nuts so okay, not enough info to shove or fold, lets call.

Flop comes x,x,x and he shoves for twice the pot AI. Assuming that he's not limp-raising with JJ- and not doing this too often with naked A,Ko there's simply no way we're ahead here 66%+ of the time since when he's behind he's got 12 outs+ and when we are behind we're drawing virtually dead. And we're usually behind.

If you take another step back and think what your hand looks like to him (given your history) then you'll realize it's easily QQ+ so no, he's not expecting you to fold here very often. So fold. I realize I'm making a lot of assumptions here but, again, given the description in OP of your 3-hour history and the dynamics so far, I think they will be accurate far more often than not.

Kirk

PS. Gigabet's "Almost there with Success and Failure"

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

Kirk, stop re-wording my posts and making them sound better.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

kirk -

[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes x,x,x and he shoves for twice the pot AI. Assuming that he's not limp-raising with JJ- and not doing this too often with naked A,Ko there's simply no way we're ahead here

[/ QUOTE ]
then why did we call pf? if his range is AA-KK, we don't have set odds nor steal equity. Maybe I'm misunderstanding there, btu the pf error is compounded on the flop; however, if you do not believe them before the flop, I would pay off and "not believe them postflop".
[ QUOTE ]

66%+ of the time since when he's behind he's got 12 outs+ and when we are behind we're drawing virtually dead. And we're usually behind.



[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, we need what, 40% equity? It's really important to put a range like we're ahead X % and behind Y %, because the truth is even if it's slightly ahead / way behind, we're often pot stuck.
[ QUOTE ]

If you take another step back and think what your hand looks like to him (given your history) then you'll realize it's easily QQ+ so no, he's not expecting you to fold here very often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree, I think the limp raiser thinks the raise/caller has a wider range then that; nowhere did hero say he was mr mcnitty mcnitson.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

Rob, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm trying to say. I'm not saying that he's limp-raising only AA/KK, I'm saying that once he gets called, he's not shoving all those other hands we're beating on the flop b/c it's sorta suicidal, so the bet is for value far more often than not, and the times we're a slight favorite vs a big draw and hold up will not offset the majority of the time we're far, far behind.

Again, it sorta goes back to variance. One lesson that was brought back over and over from trading is that variance is a necessary evil that must be minimized if you want to survive the long run (lots of threads on this subject). Hedge funds have to spend colossal sums of money not to just increase the expectation of greater returns, but to minimize variance in order that they can live long enough to see those returns materialize.

Do you see where I'm going with this? Yes, we can play with the numbers to make the call look very, very marginally +EV or about breakeven, however jacking up variance just to break even is a recipe for disaster, and is the reason a lot of younger superstar pros go broke even faster than they rise. Something to consider.

Kirk

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmm, i figured he pretty much always shoved something like AKs or hearts if he got to the flop this way (given read that hero thinks his hand is face up and never KK+). do you think that is unreasonable for a live player?

[/ QUOTE ]y didnt u include 9h2h?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol ok i see your point.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

i guess i was trying to prove a point that even if he is doing this with occasional garbage once in a while, you still dont have much equity vs his range and you should fold.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

jay loves to do ridiculous out of line stuff every once in a while, just plays quiet then makes moves way bigger than he needs to to show because he's bored and kind of weird.

long story short, i'd snap call this based just on my read of jay which i guess you couldn't have had. also, acidknight disagrees and says he's played a lot with Jay: I played with him just about every day during WSOP last year so unless he's changed dramatically (which I doubt) I don't see how you can think this is a fold.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

i very much feel he wants you to call. i dont like to do what people want. ever think about a pf min rr? fold to all in move on any small flop?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
i very much feel he wants you to call. i dont like to do what people want.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel he wants you to fold so he can show 67o. so now what? i say call so you can call it a cooler if you're wrong and if you're right you can take credit for a sick read

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

I want Kirk to do an "In the Well".

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rob, I disagree with this completely, and in reference I'm going to use one of the best posts on poker I have ever seen

[/ QUOTE ]

at this point, I was expecting you to link to the hand where samo called some huge reraise preflop with KK and then folded on a dry flop... and his logic was about the same as what you're saying in your post ("he knows I have AA/KK here and doesn't expect me to fold it, therefore he has me beat")

everyone told him he was nuts though =p

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rob, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm trying to say. I'm not saying that he's limp-raising only AA/KK, I'm saying that once he gets called, he's not shoving all those other hands we're beating on the flop b/c it's sorta suicidal, so the bet is for value far more often than not, and the times we're a slight favorite vs a big draw and hold up will not offset the majority of the time we're far, far behind.


[/ QUOTE ]

I got it. I just think if he puts you on a strong hand his move is pretty dumb w/ anything he happens to have. Therefore, he's not thinking about what you have. Like... why not just bet 3/4 pot and shove the turn. this is the only line someone would consider folding. thus, i call

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
jay loves to do ridiculous out of line stuff every once in a while

[/ QUOTE ]
qft. i call this.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

Jay starts the hand with 2100 in a 10-20 game. This is a bit of an awkard stack size UTG for AA-QQ + AK to make an initial raise. You can raise it 4-5xBB, hit top pair/over pair on the flop, bet 75% pot on the flop, bet 75% pot on the turn and still potentially face pot-sized heat out of position on the river with only one pair.

As Mehta and Flynn point out, 100-150xBB is prime territory for limp re-raising with these hands to get a better stack-pot ratio. Some players only limp-reraise with AA or AA-KK. Some have a wider range. Not knowing Jay, I would assign him a range of AA-QQ + AKs and maybe JJ-TT + AK-AQs.

Pushing our QQ preflop in response to his LRR is poor. We only get called by AA-KK and maybe AKs. Calling with QQ preflop is poor. An A or K flops 35% of the time. The other 65%, he has right of first action with a pot big enough that he is virtually guaranteed to bet it. We shouldn't be calling 400 preflop and then folding very often when QQ is an overpair to the board.

IMO the answer is folding preflop. I know Bill O'Conner would agree with me. As he says, "Consider the source." Will we be folding the best of it occasionally? Yes. So what? As Kirkrr says "jacking up variance just to break even is a recipe for disaster."

If you can't learn to fold QQ preflop to an UTG limp-reraise from a good player, you are destined to get stacked over and over again with QQ when the preflop action strongly suggests AA-KK. Pretty fishy.

I have seen O'Conner fold KK preflop in the same situation, depending on the player. Folding QQ prelop is easy.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jay starts the hand with 2100 in a 10-20 game. This is a bit of an awkard stack size UTG for AA-QQ + AK to make an initial raise. You can raise it 4-5xBB, hit top pair/over pair on the flop, bet 75% pot on the flop, bet 75% pot on the turn and still potentially face pot-sized heat out of position on the river with only one pair.

As Mehta and Flynn point out, 100-150xBB is prime territory for limp re-raising with these hands to get a better stack-pot ratio. Some players only limp-reraise with AA or AA-KK. Some have a wider range. Not knowing Jay, I would assign him a range of AA-QQ + AKs and maybe JJ-TT + AK-AQs.

Pushing our QQ preflop in response to his LRR is poor. We only get called by AA-KK and maybe AKs. Calling with QQ preflop is poor. An A or K flops 35% of the time. The other 65%, he has right of first action with a pot big enough that he is virtually guaranteed to bet it. We shouldn't be calling 400 preflop and then folding very often when QQ is an overpair to the board.

IMO the answer is folding preflop. I know Bill O'Conner would agree with me. As he says, "Consider the source." Will we be folding the best of it occasionally? Yes. So what? As Kirkrr says "jacking up variance just to break even is a recipe for disaster."

If you can't learn to fold QQ preflop to an UTG limp-reraise from a good player, you are destined to get stacked over and over again with QQ when the preflop action strongly suggests AA-KK. Pretty fishy.

I have seen O'Conner fold KK preflop in the same situation, depending on the player. Folding QQ prelop is easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

post needs more name dropping and/or authority-referencing for me to feel sure that it's valid. maybe throw in what sklansky would say?

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
jay loves to do ridiculous out of line stuff every once in a while, just plays quiet then makes moves way bigger than he needs to to show because he's bored and kind of weird.


[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this sentiment from playing with jay as well.

i also think the fact that hero only has a bit over 100BB means he's much more likely to pick THIS spot to make some ridic all-in bluff since he wouldn't do it versus anyone deep stacked almost ever. i call this without much thought based on this alone.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As Mehta and Flynn point out . . .

IMO the answer is folding preflop. I know Bill O'Conner would agree with me. As he says, "Consider the source."

[/ QUOTE ]

post needs more name dropping and/or authority-referencing for me to feel sure that it's valid. maybe throw in what sklansky would say?

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me.

I play 10-20 PLH/5-10 PLO round of each with O'Conner and others you have heard of like Carl McKelvey and Tommie Grimes et al. And I read the PNL book by Mehta and Flynn. These are some of my influences.

So sue me.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As Mehta and Flynn point out . . .

IMO the answer is folding preflop. I know Bill O'Conner would agree with me. As he says, "Consider the source."

[/ QUOTE ]

post needs more name dropping and/or authority-referencing for me to feel sure that it's valid. maybe throw in what sklansky would say?

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me.

I play 10-20 PLH/5-10 PLO round of each with O'Conner and others you have head of like Carl McKelvey and Tommie Grimes et al. And I read the PNL book by Mehta and Flynn. These are some of my influences.

So sue me.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've honestly never heard of mckelvey, grimes, or o'conner. not trying to flame you, just honestly am wondering who they are that you would think everybody's heard of them.

Re: 10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As Mehta and Flynn point out . . .

IMO the answer is folding preflop. I know Bill O'Conner would agree with me. As he says, "Consider the source."

[/ QUOTE ]

post needs more name dropping and/or authority-referencing for me to feel sure that it's valid. maybe throw in what sklansky would say?

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me.

I play 10-20 PLH/5-10 PLO round of each with O'Conner and others you have head of like Carl McKelvey and Tommie Grimes et al. And I read the PNL book by Mehta and Flynn. These are some of my influences.

So sue me.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've honestly never heard of mckelvey, grimes, or o'conner. not trying to flame you, just honestly am wondering who they are that you would think everybody's heard of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Back in 2001, before the internet boom, long time pros O'Conner and McKelvey were voted among the top NLHE and PLHE live action players in the world. They aren't tournament jocks so it's no wonder you haven't heard of them. Think of them in terms of Bobby Hoff.

http://www.cardplayer.com/author/article/all/10/6273

Grimes is in their class. Longtime pro but a bit more of a tournament jock. You can look up his results as E-Daddy on PokerStars.