Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

New table, NLHE 100$, down 7 buyins in 3000 hands. I am not playing great but to my defense consistently found myself in terrible situations (lots of villain draws got there, my draws almost never got there, tptk vs. set, never got reraised with a set, stuff like that).

I was winning 6bb/100 over 50k hands on NLHE 50. The stats of opponents are usually the same. Mine too (Except WWSD and WTS, which are way, way lower).

I don't think I have tilted, at least not to my knowledge, but I am feeling very depressed, always feel like I have the second best hand or that my draw can never hit, that I will never flop a set, or if I do I won't get paid off, or, if I try to float, my opponent will reraise me all in... you get the picture... However I feel that I am still doing what is necessary to do.

I have no bankroll problems (still have like 30 buyins from poker winnings).

questions:

1) I know I won't lose so much in the long run. However my moral is wtfpwned. Do you think if I keep playing, can I at least stop the bleeding before I go back to my 50$ table?

2) Should I be coached? Anybody you can recommend?

3) Wtf is going on?

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to get some help, and instead help you get +1 post on your pooh-bah quest. Sad.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to get some help, and instead help you get +1 post on your pooh-bah quest. Sad.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is BBV. I will stop being an [censored] for a second and tell you to post this in a more appropriate forum. You can either accept my advice or get flamed. Sorry.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

downswongs?

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

I suppose you 1-table?

I don't think 7 buyins are quite really a downswing, but probably on the verge of one I guess. I'd volunteer myself to coach ya, but I doubt I'd be considered lol.

If your morals are down, maybe you should step down and re-evaluate your play and such.

And yeah, generally u dont get serious replies in BBV.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to get some help, and instead help you get +1 post on your pooh-bah quest. Sad.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is BBV. I will stop being an [censored] for a second and tell you to post this in a more appropriate forum. You can either accept my advice or get flamed. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I misinterpreted the forums name, that doesn't mean I wanted to sell you a ticket for your ego trip.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose you 1-table?

I don't think 7 buyins are quite really a downswing, but probably on the verge of one I guess. I'd volunteer myself to coach ya, but I doubt I'd be considered lol.

If your morals are down, maybe you should step down and re-evaluate your play and such.

And yeah, generally u dont get serious replies in BBV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 4-tabling, basically playing the same game I was playing 1 table lower.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to get some help, and instead help you get +1 post on your pooh-bah quest. Sad.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is BBV. I will stop being an [censored] for a second and tell you to post this in a more appropriate forum. You can either accept my advice or get flamed. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I misinterpreted the forums name, that doesn't mean I wanted to sell you a ticket for your ego trip.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well now I feel bad lol [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Try posting this in the beginner forum, not because it's for beginners, but because there are lots of people who will give thoughtful, helpful advice.
-Peace,
mugatu668

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't read your post but I can safely say from thread title that you're a losing player and will never win. Sorry, variance doesn't actually exist. That's just what they tell fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to get some help, and instead help you get +1 post on your pooh-bah quest. Sad.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is BBV. I will stop being an [censored] for a second and tell you to post this in a more appropriate forum. You can either accept my advice or get flamed. Sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I misinterpreted the forums name, that doesn't mean I wanted to sell you a ticket for your ego trip.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well now I feel bad lol [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Try posting this in the beginner forum, not because it's for beginners, but because there are lots of people who will give thoughtful, helpful advice.
-Peace,
mugatu668

[/ QUOTE ]

np, ty

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

At 4 tables then I would say it's more variance then downswinging. If you lost 7 BI at one table, that's one thing, but 4 tabling is a little different.

I think it would be fine to step down to 50NL (unless you are healtily rolled for the 100NL (>40 buyins)) and try to see the differences between 100NL and 50NL and thus adjust to it.

Feel free to PM me if you want my AIM name and talk further.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

Wait, you actually lost money? In poker, you're supposed to steadily win, making exactly the same amount each hour. If you don't then you just suck.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
At 4 tables then I would say it's more variance then downswinging. If you lost 7 BI at one table, that's one thing, but 4 tabling is a little different.

I think it would be fine to step down to 50NL (unless you are healtily rolled for the 100NL (>40 buyins)) and try to see the differences between 100NL and 50NL and thus adjust to it.

Feel free to PM me if you want my AIM name and talk further.

[/ QUOTE ]

I started with like 40 buyins yeh, had to switch to 6-max first, so spent a lot of time downstairs. Also doing well economically irl so..

But yeh my moral is so pwned I think I need to play a bit lower and consider coaching. I am euro-asia trash, I don't have AIM [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wait, you actually lost money? In poker, you're supposed to steadily win, making exactly the same amount each hour. If you don't then you just suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had long periods of time where I lost money on other tables too (and still won 6bb/100 4-tabling).

Only this time, how do I know I am not outplayed? Since I just started, I cannot know if I am getting owned by the cards, or by the players. That's basically the question.

I know I have huuuge leaks ofc. Only, are they just too bad for NLHE 100?

Maybe I should just suicide [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

Do you use any messenger if not AIM?

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

There's this guy FGators whom I think has the answer to your question. The answer's somewhere around 1.7 million hands if I recall correctly.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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Do you use any messenger if not AIM?

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I use msn messenger yeh. I will send you my address.

I don't think Fgator has the same problem with me. He is awesome but unlucky like forever. My bad luck can only go for like 20k hands.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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I don't think Fgator has the same problem with me. He is awesome but unlucky like forever.

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oh noes, Fgators has brainwashed YOU!!!

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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I don't think Fgator has the same problem with me. He is awesome but unlucky like forever.

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oh noes, Fgators has brainwashed YOU!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe if we talk more about Fgators this thread might be 10 pages long, and pokey would then read it and reply hehe.

I could even throw in some Brian Townsend talk.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

3k hands...? -7 BI? Um, well if I run bad for like 3 days straight and am down a decent bit of $, I move down in limits until my coldstreak is over. If you're running well the day you move down, move back up. If you can tho, I'd take a day or two off from poker and do something that makes you happy so u can be clear when u fire up a sesh.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

Serious response: You say you are not playing great. Even if you don't think your game has changed moving from 50NL to 100NL, it probably has. Check poker tracker if you have it. Step back down or take a few days off then give it a clean shot. If you can beat 50NL, you can beat 100NL. Confidence is huge. I was up 30+ buyins at 100NL before going on an 11 buy-in downswing in some 5k hands (I don't have a graph, sorry). I still can't figure out what I was doing differently, and it just seemed to pass, but I know I was wayyyy less confident in my play then than I am now.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

all the buy ins. srs.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

move back down to 50nl, if you still lose, move to 25.

rinse and repeat until busto/robusto

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

NEVAR.


damn, im serious [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

most people suck at poker

so, chances are it's not a downswing op

didn't read all the words that make my eyes bleed btw

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

If 7 BI downswing is huge - you need to go down in buy-in and start having a bigger cushion - start playing with 100 buy-ins because then you wont feel a 7 BI downswing.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

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I consistently found myself in terrible situations (lots of villain draws got there, my draws almost never got there, tptk vs. set, never got reraised with a set, stuff like that).



[/ QUOTE ]

This sucks op, welcome to my life.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

77

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

[ QUOTE ]
New table, NLHE 100$, down 7 buyins in 3000 hands. I am not playing great but to my defense consistently found myself in terrible situations (lots of villain draws got there, my draws almost never got there, tptk vs. set, never got reraised with a set, stuff like that).


[/ QUOTE ]

No more 30-hour sessions?

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

3000 hands isn't all that many and its def possible to have a 7 buy in downswing in that number of hands. This has happened to like thousands of posters here and many have talked about their downswings. If you want a confidence booster move down a level for a little while and then move back up.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

I played a guy in a HU SNG today. Believe it or not he has been getting unlucky for 8500 games!

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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I played a guy in a HU SNG today. Believe it or not he has been getting unlucky for 8500 games!

[/ QUOTE ]

poor guy.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

[ QUOTE ]
Serious response: You say you are not playing great. Even if you don't think your game has changed moving from 50NL to 100NL, it probably has. Check poker tracker if you have it. Step back down or take a few days off then give it a clean shot. If you can beat 50NL, you can beat 100NL. Confidence is huge. I was up 30+ buyins at 100NL before going on an 11 buy-in downswing in some 5k hands (I don't have a graph, sorry). I still can't figure out what I was doing differently, and it just seemed to pass, but I know I was wayyyy less confident in my play then than I am now.

[/ QUOTE ]

My stats are almost identical, and those of my opponents, too. I see the same kind of people, tbh.

I don't know, really, I might have made some bad decisions or it might be just bad luck. Not that I don't ever made bad decisions on NLHE 50 either.

I don't have any bankroll problems, I won a lot lately, and don't need money for rl either, but more like confidence problems atm. I will just try to fix some leaks I know I have before I move up.

Still looking for a coach btw, I guess it will just be easier and faster.

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most people suck at poker

so, chances are it's not a downswing op

didn't read all the words that make my eyes bleed btw

[/ QUOTE ]

Replying to posts you proudly did not read is old, like 1990s mmorpg forums strat. You need to move up, I think you are ready.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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77

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Lol, where is the love for this?? Cracked me up..

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

appropriate that this is at the top atm.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

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lol at the serious replies

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

after 1.6 million hands you are probably looking at riggedness of the site

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

Swongs are 1 thing.

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswing?
 

It's variance until you have lost every cent to your name, every cent you can borrow, and mortgaged every cent you can get for the next few years....

Re: Variance? After how many buyins do you decide it is not a downswin
 

One thing is intriguing me however. Aren't all those jokes, like, too old now?

This forum has been up since the invention of wheel. Every joke about how an expert makes fun of the losing player by saying it is probably variance, and implying it's that he sucks, must have been done 850 times at least.

Or maybe it never gets old? I don't know