Monster pot - time to fold?
 

This was my read, villain 1 (BB) is a big time calling station (put him on tens, jacks maybe even 8s - hed prob raise flop a bit with 9s), 2nd villain (UTG) just lost a big pot to me and is prob a bit tilted, i think he shoves kings or aces against me pf, so i put him on jacks, queens or adkd, he could have nines but id imagine a smaller raise on flop with top set rather than shoving - is call very -EV?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $89.50
Hero (SB): $235.65
BB: $214.25
UTG: $159
CO: $332.95

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3.50</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, BB calls $11, UTG calls $8.50

Flop: ($36) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $27</font>, BB calls $27, <font color="red">UTG raises to $147 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">Hero?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

how often do u guys think 99 shoves on utg's part rather than raising to say 85 or something?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

does everyone fold with this much action??

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

u call close to never ur saying right? or r u saying he shoves 99 close to never?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

I wouln't take my word for it. I just stated my personal view. Why shove with nines when you can extract so much more.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wouln't take my word for it. I just stated my personal view. Why shove with nines when you can extract so much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright, i agree, its such a huge overbet, do u think villain 1 flats a board like that with 99 much - maybe but prob not too likely. And if u think villain 2 shoves aces (which i think he raises pf into 2 ppl almost always) - then is it so unlikely hes pushing jacks, queens and def adkd or adqd? remember hes prob tilting.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

bb is a calling station and UTG is tilted?

why not shove? there's value even 2 bi deep... there's lots of stuff BB can't resist folding getting the odds he's getting when action gets back to him

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
bb is a calling station and UTG is tilted?

why not shove? there's value in 2 bi deep

[/ QUOTE ]

so shoving ur saying right? im not just calling obv i agree, so decision is shove or fold - and u say shove?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

im like never folding this...

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

this is range i gave bb, i took a few combos off here and there to weigh it, tell me if u think its unrealistic:
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 99, AdKd, AdQd - i think its honestly weighed away from aa and 99 cause aa prob 4bets pf and 99 i dunno if he just overbet jams flop, jj is prob not thaat likely either.
For utg, i dont c him having aa or kk here very often at all but w/e: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, 99, 88 (obv not calling at this point)

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

so general consensus is shove?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

I guess I'm too much of a wuss if everyone of you would have shoved.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm too much of a wuss if everyone of you would have shoved.

[/ QUOTE ]

there have only been 2 saying shove so far, most of it is just me spamming my own thread, still unsure about it.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

shove.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

Your "read" makes it an easy shove. UTG could have QQ~TT Adxd 99 33 22. BB has a wide range here. However, since he just called on the flop. He could have something like 9x, 54, 2 diamonds etc. Since UTG "seems like" to be tilted, you have to shove this

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your "read" makes it an easy shove. UTG could have QQ~TT Adxd 99 33 22. BB has a wide range here. However, since he just called on the flop. He could have something like 9x, 54, 2 diamonds etc. Since UTG "seems like" to be tilted, you have to shove this

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your "read" makes it an easy shove. UTG could have QQ~TT Adxd 99 33 22. BB has a wide range here. However, since he just called on the flop. He could have something like 9x, 54, 2 diamonds etc. Since UTG "seems like" to be tilted, you have to shove this

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

im def not positive utg is tilted, i am sure bb is the calling station type though, without reads - do u call? to fold ud have to assume a couple of things: bb flats 99 on flop like that multiway, or has aces and flats pf and on flop... or utg overbet shoves top set or flat calls pf with aa and multiway...

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
bb flats 99 on flop like that multiway, or has aces and flats pf and on flop... or utg overbet shoves top set or flat calls pf with aa and multiway...

[/ QUOTE ]

OR you're ahead a decent % and want to make money

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bb flats 99 on flop like that multiway, or has aces and flats pf and on flop... or utg overbet shoves top set or flat calls pf with aa and multiway...

[/ QUOTE ]

OR you're ahead a decent % and want to make money

[/ QUOTE ]

im not sure i undertsand u but my last post was supposed to support shoving since IMO those assumptions r pretty unlikely.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

BB has TT-QQ a lot here. I'm not folding here ever, and I think calling&gt;&gt;&gt;shoving here, although I suppose there isn't much of a difference....just makes it a bit easier for BB to tag along with worse IMO.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

I raise more preflop, and then I'm not folding.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

Just so every1 is on the same page, this is y i think bb is prob a calling station:
Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $90.50
Hero (BB): $209.50
UTG: $242.25
CO: $159
BTN: $332.95

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($3) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG calls $3, SB folds

Turn: ($9) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7

River: ($23) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, UTG calls $17

Results: $57 Pot ($2.85 Rake)
Hero showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Sixes) and WON $54.15 (+$26.15 NET)
UTG mucked J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$28 NET)

And this is y i think UTG is prob annoyed with me and not flatting kings or aces again pf:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $101.20
SB: $99
Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $243.95
MP: $180.65
CO: $395.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $3.50</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, MP calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $169.65 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $72 and is All-In

Turn: ($200.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($200.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $200.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $197.50 (+$97.50 NET)
MP showed K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$100 NET)

do u guys agree with reads?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

yes shove

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
im like never folding this...

[/ QUOTE ]

never ever. one guy is a calling station and the other is on tilt. you would be very unlucky not the have the best hand in this situation

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

Yeah I mean its not a great spot but you can't fold. Expect to be behind sometimes, but ahead more than enough to warrant getting the chips in..

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

Are people changing there answer if UTG is NOT on tilt?

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are people changing there answer if UTG is NOT on tilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

ya, thats what im wondering, but w/e ill give results and they really surprised me, i shoved and BB had aces (he cold called pf and on flop...) and utg had nines (surprised he raised 27 to 147 with top set...). Pot was 600bb and nines held up.

Re: Monster pot - time to fold?
 

I'd never fold this and I think calling is better than shoving because BB has QQ-TT a lot, and that's a kinda nice range for you to keep in the hand