$50 TT on da turn
 

Villain here is 18/9/3 after ~150 hands. I have no idea what to do here since if he calls a bet we're in a huge pot on the river and I have TT [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. Turn + river plan?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($30)
UTG ($47.50)
Hero ($50)
MP1 ($62.50)
MP2 ($44.60)
MP3 ($23.15)
CO ($49.45)
Button ($49.30)
SB ($51.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, MP1 calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($8.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, MP1 calls $6, CO folds.

Turn: ($20.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero is unsure again.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

this isnt too bad of a spot imo. I would lead the turn again for ~15. villain smooth calling flop looks like a draw and I don't think I would give up here. if he comes over the top on the turn its an obvious fold. he would basically have to raise with any big hand on such a drawy board. I wouldnt be surprised to see a fold on the turn.

if villain calls, it sucks. being oop going into the river with 1/2 a pot bet behind is whack (assuming you lead the turn). if river isnt an ace or a diamond I think I stick it in though. no sense in trying to c/c since the pot is so big. man, playing TT oop sucks.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the turn again for ~15. villain smooth calling flop looks like a draw and I don't think I would give up here. if he comes over the top on the turn its an obvious fold. he would basically have to raise with any big hand on such a drawy board. I wouldnt be surprised to see a fold on the turn.

if villain calls, it sucks. being oop going into the river with 1/2 a pot bet behind is whack (assuming you lead the turn). if river isnt an ace or a diamond I think I stick it in though.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, that seems reasonable but I don't really like it. I like to just push once in a while in this sort of spot if I decide I'm sticking it out - you'll get more value out of 9x hands and even some under pairs (if you've got my image [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

Interesting/tough spot. He could be slowplaying a set or have some kind of AdKd-ish hand but given his agg factor I think he prolly raises either of those to try and build the pot. Or he could have a stubborn 88/77 that doesn't believe you and intends to bet the turn. Last possibility is JJ/QQ playing pot control.


I think I like a bet of about $15, responding to a raise by puking.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

Betting out is the aggro line, and probably correct I suppose, but this spot sucks. Villain could be on flush draw, but I may play the set like this too...yuck.

What'd you do? Was there a further decision to make in this hand?

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

This situations sucks mighty bad. His range is probably all PP's here. Problem is, he probably has just as many sets as he does worse PP's. You don't get any value out of betting the turn though.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

I would b/f it for $15

C/C a non diamond river

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

I'm definitely leading on turn. As others said, smooth call on flop is very likely just a flush draw. If he calls though (even if a diamond does not come) I am c/c river. If a diamond does come, its an easy c/f.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

I'm not sure why everybody is so sure this is a flush draw.

Why does everybody specifically like betting $15 on the turn?

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

my guess is the villian has OP on an overpair so i can see flat calling a set. granted most of us would raise but daily i run into randoms who dont get much value off a set by calling the flop refusing to build the pot. but at the same time, the villian being in position, a $15 turn lead would be ideal for him to then push and maybe get a call and if its checked to him he can fire away as well and get a nice pot going albeit late.

i personally don't think TT beats much besides a FD and that seems less likely than a set...and building the pot oop with such a weak hand isn't ideal. the thing with firing hard on the turn is if the river is a non diamond low card, its hard to fold with such a big pot. with this weak a hand, i go back and forth between firing and checking.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

16 on turn
c/c river
such a tough spot cause u have 0 reads on him playing postflop...
honestly i think it's a combo draw.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

You guys are saying c/c but if we bet 15 on turn the pot going to river is 50 and he will have 26 so we are stacking off with TT. Just out of curiosity, do you think it is usually a missed draw when he shoves river and we are ahead?

I am in no way saying you are wrong, I am asking for clarification. I think one of my weakest points is picking off bluffs. I feel like people don't shove river bluff that much but I would love to hear how people feel about this.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

This is certainly decision time. I check the turn here because I can't see anything calling the flop that doesn't raise this turn if you bet. (and if he calls, it certainly sucks too) I don't think that 88 and 77 call the preflop reraise AND the flop bet...that just seems bad. I'd put him on 66/33/99 most of the time, and maybe AdKd (though I think that'd shove da flop). Since you don't have a read that he'd float flop, I think c/f'ing turn is okay.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

Bet/fold $12 on turn, leaves you $30 behind in a $32 pot, if he's gonna shove over with a set this would be the spot. If called, C/C a non diamond river.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

Villain is tight and aggressive and he is calling a big bet preflop and on the flop. I don't think your TT can be good here.

This isn't some loose fish, it's very unlikely he is calling with 87s or some such draw.

I check the turn and plan on folding to any big bets from MP1.

When you raise 5BB and get called by 18%, isn't that a warning sign in itself?

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you raise 5BB and get called by 18%, isn't that a warning sign in itself?

[/ QUOTE ]Not really. It says, "I have a small pair/suited connector/suited ace that I want to flop good with".

In the hand I bet $14 and c/f the river to a push on the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When you raise 5BB and get called by 18%, isn't that a warning sign in itself?


[/ QUOTE ]
Not really. It says, "I have a small pair/suited connector/suited ace that I want to flop good with".

In the hand I bet $14 and c/f the river to a push on the A .



[/ QUOTE ]

Would you call your preflop raise in villains spot with sc or Axs?

I wouldn't and the river push seems to confirm that the MP1 didn't.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

No but I'm not 18%vpip.

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't and the river push seems to confirm that the MP1 didn't.

[/ QUOTE ] I kind of disagree with this. Once I check the river he knows I'm not calling and probably things I have a QQ/Jx type hand. This is an easy spot to push a busted draw or Axdd that hit the A.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

Okay, what am I missing here?

Standard preflop raise, non-regular, probably weakish, opponent calls in MP. Standard continuation bet gets called behind, then the turn is a blank... what about this hand makes almost everyone in this thread think that a flopped overpair is so rarely never ahead? Why does everyone assume we're up against either a set or a flush draw virtually all the time?

Edit: Also, to the people talking about how this is an aggressive opponent... AF after 150 hands... this villain has probably seen less than 20 flops and less turns and rivers... AF takes a really long time to converge and an AF after 150 hands means very very little.

Re: $50 TT on da turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would b/f it for $15

C/C a non diamond river

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but I think you gotta c/f the river if it's an ace.