200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

villain is 25/20/3.5. seems decent, but a huge loser in my db over 6K hands. i've 3-bet him this session 1 time from the blinds and he folded. other than that, no history this session.


Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $310.50
CO: $218.65
Hero (BTN): $239.80
SB: $215.85
BB: $161
UTG: $76.15

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $7</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $17

Flop: ($51) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $32</font>, Hero ????

usually he's betting the flop here with the intention to 3-bet, amirite?

who likes a call and who likes a raise? and why?

personally, my instinct tells me to raise this because "OMG COMBO DRAW, 3BET POT." but i'm not so sure. thoughts?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this?

obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding.

my question was which is better?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?)
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis imo. I would raise/call here since I still think people bet/fold like this a fairly decent amount with like weakish midpairs/air etc. If I've seen him do this with monsters before then calling is fine.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
your read? Will he call a raise/shove? (how much FE do you think you have?)
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

[/ QUOTE ]

With the str8 draw as well, you dont even need much FE.

I would just shove or raise depending on how you play your big hands on this flop normally.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably just call and look for one of my 15 outs....

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you have 15 outs most of the time then you should be shoving the flop all day since a) You have the best hand equity-wise and b) you often get a fold (which would be incorrect on his part given the odds he is getting) since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

I like calling. I think his range is monsters and hands taking a shot on the flop that will check/fold turn. Against monsters (TT/KK/AA/AK) we don't love getting all in, and we will stack him on the turn if we hit. So I think we will be able to get him to fold all hands on the turn that would have folded to a raise on the flop, and still stack him if we hit on the turn if he has a big hand.

Obviously this line means we only see 4 cards, but I still think a call is good.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a set not part of his range here?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis imo. I would raise/call here since I still think people bet/fold like this a fairly decent amount with like weakish midpairs/air etc. If I've seen him do this with monsters before then calling is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]
After we call the flop, we can almost always move him off midpairs and air on the turn or river anyway. Only the most suicidal would continue to bluff on the turn, since we could easily have a monster. He will check/fold all of those most of the time.

Sucks if he decides to CR his monsters though, but he will usually lead again with those. Even checking behind the turn and betting river when checked to should fold out all his junk if he has a brain.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

I shove this flop like 20-25% of the time, but I don't like doing it often. It embraces variance so much.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a set not part of his range here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was working on your assumption that we have 15 outs.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
since the best hand he can have is TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a set not part of his range here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was working on your assumption that we have 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, my bad. what about 12 outs Jay?

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

You honestly can't really go wrong either way in this hand.

I tend to call here more than many, but given that you don't have any history, I'd raise it up here. I tend to think people aren't that strong when they first make this play, and it's some really cheap metagame.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this?

obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding.

my question was which is better?

[/ QUOTE ]


To me knowing the equity against that range was an important thing. It also showed me what I would do, and I had thought it would be reasonably obvious why. I could elaborate more on that ofcourse, but instead of asking for that in a normal way you do this which puts me off entirely.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

I assume a push vs call descision

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.666% 62.51% 00.15% 5570 13.50 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, KdKs, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs }
Hand 1: 37.334% 37.18% 00.15% 3313 13.50 { AdJd }

x82+y(z)=0
z=.37*267 -.62*215
z=98.79-133.33
z=-34.54

82x - 34.54y =0
82x - 34.54(100 - x)=0
x=3454/116.54
x=29%

if you don't think you have 29% FE here than just call. pot will be 115, we will need to make only $15 when we hit (47-12)/12=1:3
32 *3=96, we're currently calling 32 in a 83 pot so we should make our money back and then some if we hit on the turn.

I honestly don't think you can go wrong either way here.

*I didn't even include AK in his range so realistically that means we could get by with even 26% FE

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

I raise this alot.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Kh Td 2d

Wins Ties Equity
54.39% 0.45% 54.85% ( AA,AK )
44.70% 0.45% 45.15% ( AdJd )



Raise/call

[/ QUOTE ]

come on man, why did you even waste your time posting this?

obviously I know our equity is very good, and obviously I'm not folding.

my question was which is better?

[/ QUOTE ]


To me knowing the equity against that range was an important thing. It also showed me what I would do, and I had thought it would be reasonably obvious why. I could elaborate more on that ofcourse, but instead of asking for that in a normal way you do this which puts me off entirely.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wasn't trying to put you off. but your post pretty much stated the obvious.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

don't think there is any need for more analysis here.

I raised, he shoved, I called...I missed against his set of 2s.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

i call the flop and then depending on how much he bets or if he bets the turn i would shove/pot the turn. makes ur hand seem stonger, like a set, rather than raising/shoving the flop which sometimes looks like "OMG COMBO DRAW, 3BET POT."

his turn play will also define his hand more as well

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
call the flop and then depending on how much he bets or if he bets the turn i would shove/pot the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like this. to me, if he bets the flop AND turn, his hand is pretty strong and he's probably cool w/getting all the money in.

if I wait for the turn to raise, i end up putting in most of my stack as a pretty decent dog.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

raisy daisy

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

i raise this 99% of the time

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

Why are we raising? What do we put him on? Certainly there is nothing terribly wrong about raising and it's def +EV, but I have a feeling calling might be more +EV against a lot of opponents.

Like I said earlier, the range we raise and get it in vs we are a dog to. So we are not really raising for value hoping for a call. Raising folds out midpairs and stuff like that, but I think we can get those to fold on the turn/river equally cheap. So I'm not sure why we should raise here 99% of the time.

I guess it feels a bit yuck when we just call and he bets big on a blank turn and we have to fold, but almost no one thats not completely spewtarded will do that with anything less than AK.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

this is one of those spots where i much prefer a PF flat-call as compared toa 3-bet.

Re: 200nl - pretty standard hand. combo draw in 3-bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
You honestly can't really go wrong either way in this hand.

I tend to call here more than many, but given that you don't have any history, I'd raise it up here. I tend to think people aren't that strong when they first make this play, and it's some really cheap metagame.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends a whole bunch on stack sizes, reads, history.

In this particular spot I like a call based on all of these, and because my draws aren't all that obvious so my implied odds are very good when I hit, and I can just get away if I whiff and he keeps betting.

Plus I think we have 15 outs here exactly never.