Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

Well, the BSPs have had a pretty bad run so far this year (2*-4) and they are not quite as enthusiastic as they used to be. This has been one of the quietest BSP weeks in a while.

However, there is one game that stands out a bit and I feel sick to my stomach about it because it involves my beloved 9ers, who looked like the worst team in the league last week.

This week, the vaunted Baltimore defense comes to town and the 9ers are reeling from an embarassing loss to the SeaChickens wherein they scored 3 whole points.

They lost their starting QB, their starting Left Guard Jonas Jennings, and the week before they lost one of their young star linebackers Manny Lawson. Their receivers have dropped balls all year and Trent Dilfer will not under any circumstances be able to light it up against Balmer. He threw three(?) picks last week and now faces an actual tough defense.

It looks like curtains for the 9ers.

Take San Francisco +3.5

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

total agree with 49ers, also i like Rams +3.5 and Dolphins +5.5.

GL all.

-JC

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

I didn't realize Jennings was playing Guard now. He's never been able to stay healthy.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

Would you say these BSPs represent the nation as a whole?

The reason I ask is that beat up linebackers, and WRs dropping balls seems like more of a local bar type knowledge than a national one.

Of course, I think everyone will agree that 0-fer had a horror game.

Lori

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

A lot of EC-people are betting against BMore getting 3.5 here, having watched Boller and perpetually injured McNair look awful most of this year.

Nate, what do you think of SDG+1 and NO-3 [vs Carr!] also as favorite BSP picks?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

NajdorfDefense: i like Panthers +3, i can't say the same for Broncos.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nate, what do you think of SDG+1 and NO-3 [vs Carr!] also as favorite BSP picks?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still seeing some books with SDG+1, but Pinny is showing -1 and Bodog (and others) is showing a pick. If you're going to take Denver over my beloved Chargers, might as well get a pick or +1. I'm not taking either side.

What about the NYG-3.5 and DAL-10 as BSP picks?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

I think you're on the right side, Nate, but this doesn't feel like a true BSP pick to me.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're on the right side, Nate, but this doesn't feel like a true BSP pick to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not nearly as heavily BSP as previous picks but it's getting the most BSP action of the week.

It's admittedly a marginal BSP pick compared to usual but as I said, the BSPs are reeling from a bad couple weeks and are less enthusiastic. The 9ers are getting the most favor but not everyone is willing to back up the truck like they were with say, Cincy at Cleveland. That one was one of the biggest BSP picks of all time.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

GB (-3.5) at home against Chicago seems like a huge BSP pick. Is anyone taking Chicago here, and if so why?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

I thought for sure it was gonna be Buffalo this week.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
GB (-3.5) at home against Chicago seems like a huge BSP pick. Is anyone taking Chicago here, and if so why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know a lotta people taking 3.5 on the Bears.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of EC-people are betting against BMore getting 3.5 here, having watched Boller and perpetually injured McNair look awful most of this year.

Nate, what do you think of SDG+1 and NO-3 [vs Carr!] also as favorite BSP picks?

[/ QUOTE ]

If anything, I think the public has soured on San Diego too quickly and Denver is not very good.

New Orleans is scary. Never bet against a winless team coming off a bye...

And in terms of the BSP factor, I haven't seen those teams getting that much BSP love. It's pretty split.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

I'm shocked the Ravens - after a terrible week 1, then two near comeback losses, then a terrible week 4 - would be a BSP pick here. Yeah the Niners looked bad, but the Ravens looked awful too...surprising.

- C -

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm shocked the Ravens - after a terrible week 1, then two near comeback losses, then a terrible week 4 - would be a BSP pick here. Yeah the Niners looked bad, but the Ravens looked awful too...surprising.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I can see the anti-Dilfer crowd lining up.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

On SFO and CAR+3.5/-105 both.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

Carr and Brees are having a stink-off in the final minutes.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
On SFO and CAR+3.5/-105 both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kasay pwns [altho if Mare won the game with his FG CAR still covers]. 7-2-1 NFL ats this year [which doesn't include my Buf pick last week since I didn't specify units.]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
Carr and Brees are having a stink-off in the final minutes.

[/ QUOTE ]

At least Brees won something.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

SFO let us gogoGO

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

ooooooo, it's gonna be close.......

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

grats BSP's on SF lol

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

wow

they were on the 20

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

BOOM!

BSPs are hot, hot, hot

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

That's it... Next week I'm on the BSP picks for 10 units each.

- C -

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

ty for pick

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

[/ QUOTE ]

Scary but true I think.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
that might be kelly/2 correct if one uses previous win rate as true value of pick

[/ QUOTE ]

Scary but true I think.

[/ QUOTE ]
I had the unfortunate luck of discovering the Kelly criterion before learning about sample sizes. Some dude on the TheRX (Spreadbeater I believe) was hitting over 60% on his NBA picks over a sample size of (ZOMG!) ~100 games, so I decided to start tailing him. First night I tailed him he posted 5 picks (a lot for him), so I was pretty excited. I threw down 8% of my bankroll on each game (full kelly sizing for a 60% win rate, simultaneous wagers be damned). After a 1-4 night...good-bye 25% of my bankroll. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

Thanks as always Natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
total agree with 49ers, also i like Rams +3.5 and Dolphins +5.5.

GL all.

-JC

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope someone get advantage of this picks too, you don't have to thank me at all.

i just want to help.

- JC

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
total agree with 49ers, also i like Rams +3.5 and Dolphins +5.5.

GL all.

-JC

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope someone get advantage of this picks too, you don't have to thank me at all.

i just want to help.

- JC

[/ QUOTE ]

If you'd stop posting, it would be a great help. K. Thx.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

ok.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
total agree with 49ers, also i like Rams +3.5 and Dolphins +5.5.

GL all.

-JC

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope someone get advantage of this picks too, you don't have to thank me at all.

i just want to help.

- JC

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I thought you only posted "fake" picks, so I went the other way. Bummer.

Any way of knowing which picks are real and which ones are real?

Thanks in advance,

hd

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

i like this forum, im just gonna read it as usual.
"no more posts from me, don't worry."

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

DeezNuts and humdinger,

Who are you? And what are you doing here?

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
DeezNuts and humdinger,

Who are you? And what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody just trying to learn.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
DeezNuts and humdinger,

Who are you? And what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like you, I'm nobody.

Unlike you, I like posters that add value.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits Week 5
 

[ QUOTE ]
DeezNuts and humdinger,

Who are you? And what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I d/k who Nuts is, but he's been posting here for quite a while iirc.