I suck at prop bets
 

I'm playing my live 1-2NL and this regular I know who has some of the dumbest ideas about hand equity suggests a bet. We agree for a $5 bet per hand.

- Any Ace or King comes on the board at any point in the hand, he wins. Otherwise, I win.

The best part is that he agrees for payment for any hand that sees at least the flop.

I lose about $110 on this bet in about 4 hours.

Was I running bad or do I fail at maths BBV?

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

you got hustled, even the dealer was in on it.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

post this in the probablilty fourm. Only saying this cause i would like to know the real anwser.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

do math

5 cards dealt x 2 winners for him = 10

10 out of 13 possible cards

you fail

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

This is a very interesting prop as the odds of seeing subsequent cards are influenced by the hole cards. To what degree, I don't know. For example, someone holding Ax, where they pair their x on the flop is more likely to chase to the river for two pair.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

hustled

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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hustled

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Re: I suck at prop bets
 

I completely do not understand this. If there are 5 chances for a 8/52 to come out, shouldn't it be a 40/52 by the river? And considering all the times the hand would end with just the 3 flop cards, wouldn't I have an edge?

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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hustled

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He's a 3-2 favorite. Good job, donkey.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

He will win this ~58% of the time. This is awsome because you can rationalize "If you have AK, you are only 50/50 to pair one of the cards."

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

but remember, you're assuming there are 5 board cards. Sometimes there will be 3 or 4. so I guess the real question is what values of (sees flop) , (sees turn) , (sees river) make the bet profitable for the No A no K
Also are people more likely to have As and Ks in hand when the hand goes longer? it seems so to me but I have no proof or data.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

You're a 3-2 favorite on a flop, dead heat on the turn, and very slightly better than 2-3 underdog on the river. It really depends on the game whether or not this bet is +EV. I'd watch for the first few hours and see what the distribution is like. In any reasonable game, this is a +EV bet for you. However, in a loose live game, it might be bad. You should go back, watch for the first 2 hours and count +1 for each hand taken on the flop, -1 for each hand that sees a river. Except keep them in different pools. Then evaluate from there.

Say these were your distributions:
Flop: 24
Turn: Who cares
River: 16

Then you're looking at a 60/40 60% of the time and a 40/60 40% of the time, making your equity .6*.60 + .4*.40 = .52, so you can expect to win $5 *.52/.50 = $.20 each time you do the bet.

Basically, you need to be heavily weighted towards flops or rivers in order for this to make a difference. Without any additional concrete knowledge, it definitely seems like taking the "no ace or king" side is +EV because it seems like more hands end on a flop than river, and there's the added bonus of their possibly being a disporpotionately high number of high cards already dealt in hands that see flops.

I don't really know what happens in this game of yours, but if you see 3 hands that end on the flop for every 1 that sees a river, you go from being a 52% favorite to a 55% favorite (ignoring board textures that allow for this behavior).

Blah blah blah blah done with math. Assuming your game isn't all calling all the time, go back and rehustle him for $20/hand.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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You're a 3-2 favorite on a flop, dead heat on the turn, and very slightly better than 2-3 underdog on the river. It really depends on the game whether or not this bet is +EV. I'd watch for the first few hours and see what the distribution is like. In any reasonable game, this is a +EV bet for you. However, in a loose live game, it might be bad. You should go back, watch for the first 2 hours and count +1 for each hand taken on the flop, -1 for each hand that sees a river. Except keep them in different pools. Then evaluate from there.

Say these were your distributions:
Flop: 24
Turn: Who cares
River: 16

Then you're looking at a 60/40 60% of the time and a 40/60 40% of the time, making your equity .6*.60 + .4*.40 = .52, so you can expect to win $5 *.52/.50 = $.20 each time you do the bet.

Basically, you need to be heavily weighted towards flops or rivers in order for this to make a difference. Without any additional concrete knowledge, it definitely seems like taking the "no ace or king" side is +EV because it seems like more hands end on a flop than river, and there's the added bonus of their possibly being a disporpotionately high number of high cards already dealt in hands that see flops.

I don't really know what happens in this game of yours, but if you see 3 hands that end on the flop for every 1 that sees a river, you go from being a 52% favorite to a 55% favorite (ignoring board textures that allow for this behavior).

Blah blah blah blah done with math. Assuming your game isn't all calling all the time, go back and rehustle him for $20/hand.

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you're serious.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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you're serious.

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hahahhaha

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

play every hand and after the flop blanks go all-in, thus greatly improving your chances.

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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you're serious.

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Meh, I thought it was interesting so I tried to figure it out. Was I wrong?

Re: I suck at prop bets
 

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you're serious.

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Meh, I thought it was interesting so I tried to figure it out. Was I wrong?

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[insert sammy farha's "are you serious?" picture]