Early Misc Week 5 Lines
 

So I'm playing the "guess the line" game before I looked up some spreads on Pinny.

Atl +9 @Tenn - Huh, the Titans have played well thru 3 games but -9? I'm not sure the bye helps them in this case given that it's so early, they're a young team, and they had some momentum going. I figured this to be around 5 given that Atlanta has yet to really be manhandled as bad as they may be.

Dallas -10 @Buff - Now I would not be shocked to see Dallas roll up a 40 spot and expose the defensive liabilites that the Jets could not. I don't expect Dallas to take this game lightly since Wade left the organization on bad terms. But double digits on the road for a normally competetive home team hosting its first MNF game in 14 yrs seems like a lot. I thought this would be around 6.

I realize this may sound "squarish" since the Falcons & Bills happened to win today, but the whole reason I'm posting this is that I generally peg these within 2 points give or take so thoughts on these lines?

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Bills should be at least +7 1/2 and i think the the 10 is reasonable given the injuries that team has had and dallas' offensive explosions. One of my friends is a huge bills fan and he even said they played a wr at safety last week. They are really hurting

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Det +3.5 at Wash FTW!

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Does anyone else see the Chi@Gb (-3) game as the ultimate BSP pick?

Chi has been struggling. Problems at QB. Farve has looked great. Etc. Oh by the way Chi made it to the superbowl last year and GB didn't make playoffs. really tempted to jump on CHI here

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i really havent been around the sports betting forum that much...what is BSP

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[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else see the Chi@Gb (-3) game as the ultimate BSP pick?

Chi has been struggling. Problems at QB. Farve has looked great. Etc. Oh by the way Chi made it to the superbowl last year and GB didn't make playoffs. really tempted to jump on CHI here

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like you said ... LAST YEAR

this is a new year, have u seen the chargers play? have you seen the Cardinals play? have u seen the Bears play?

GB at home is an easy win

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SD at Den -1 looks really good too.

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BSP - bullsh1t pick

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BSP - bullsh1t pick

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No, it stands for Bar Stool Pundits. Check it out in the FAQ.

And statements like this...
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like you said ... LAST YEAR

this is a new year, have u seen the chargers play? have you seen the Cardinals play? have u seen the Bears play?

GB at home is an easy win



[/ QUOTE ]

are a prime example of them.

I hope this GB/Chi game gets to 3.5(and it looks like it will). If it does I am all over the Bears.

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as a bears fan, there is no way i don't think gb will cover that line in a WALK.

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BSP - bullsh1t pick

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[/ QUOTE ] as a bears fan, there is no way i don't think gb will cover that line in a WALK.

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have we ever made a BSP official on Tuesday?

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Tease the [censored] out of KC at +8 (+2 on spread). IMO they match up close to even on a neutral field right now. That KC Run O is getting in flow just in time to face the Jags suspect Run D. Unlikely Jax can continue to only average 1.0 turnover/game too.

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I wasn't interested in Chicago until hearing the BSP remarks in here. In fact, I was thinking GB was probably the right side, but had no intention of betting.

What I did want to say is that Bills +10.5 and Bucs +10.5 both look amazing to me. Two of the greatest plays so far this year, IMO.

I'm also gonna do something very rare for myself and bet a big BSP team, the Pats, if I can get -14. They look like one of those square teams that just covers all year long and pumps up square bankrolls. I knew I'd be upset that I didn't take -7.5 this week, but I was already upset that it opened at -6 at Pinny and I couldn't bet it until it showed up on Bodog at -7.5. I thought -6 looked laughable last week, and I think -14 looks laughable this week.

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God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me.

Same reasoning for Sea +6. Find it hard to believe they'd be pick'em in Seattle.

Same reasoning for SD, although the way Denver just rolled over and died in Indi just makes me really nervous. They looked like they went out of their way to avoid even covering the spread.

Bucs +10 or more and ML +450 or more look really attractive to me.

- C -

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Watching the game last week made me as angry on Chicago as I had been in years. They gave the game away. They committed absolutely stupid penalties, threw absolutely stupid passes, handed the other team at least 20 points last week. But...
These mistakes are all correctable. It's not a lack of talent even on defense where even the no name guys were shutting down detroit's pass offense in detroit.

Chicago can't be any worse than right now and GB can't be better than right now. Seems like a simple buy low sell high situation. I'm hoping the public really pushes that line for GB so I can bet Chicago later.

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Are you concerned about the 2 TB injuries?

NE starting to look like MichSt the year they won CBB as favorite, people betting them to cover with both hands until their arms fall off down the stretch, and the covered a whole lotta games, including the last 6.

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Atl +9 @Tenn - Huh, the Titans have played well thru 3 games but -9? I'm not sure the bye helps them in this case given that it's so early, they're a young team, and they had some momentum going. I figured this to be around 5 given that Atlanta has yet to really be manhandled as bad as they may be.

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The line is 8.5, nice job. Isn't there some stat out there that home favorites coming off bye weeks fail to cover a decent percentage of the time? I don't recall if the sample size is large enough to bet this kind of system blindly though.

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God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me.


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I see the line as GB -3, not +3. If it hits 3.5 (and it looks like it will), I'm betting Chicago.

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God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me.


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I see the line as GB -3, not +3. If it hits 3.5 (and it looks like it will), I'm betting Chicago.

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PSU is saying that with the current line, if the game had been in Chicago, the Bears would be -3. Which makes no sense, hence this line doesn't look like a great play to him.

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Jax is always risky to bet against no matter who they play. They had the 4th best rush D last year and this year they have potentially faced 3 of the top 8 Rush Os from last year, 8th being Denver and clearly Den is better running the ball this year. I wouldnt expect much from LJ. The person that deserves more attention on their offense than LJ is Dwanye Bowe 6-3 217, hes the contributing factor thats won them their last two games. He could be the Colston of yesteryear. I think Jax wins this game but KC is capable. Its a very iffy game though I wouldn't bet either side.

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Tease the [censored] out of KC at +8 (+2 on spread). IMO they match up close to even on a neutral field right now. That KC Run O is getting in flow just in time to face the Jags suspect Run D. Unlikely Jax can continue to only average 1.0 turnover/game too.

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I kinda like the Packers in that game myself. Obv. the classic sign of a BSP is overreacting to the most recent games, but sometimes teams are just nowhere near as good as they were a year ago. I think the Bears are the latter with their lack of running game & defensive injuries and frankly didn't understand why they were giving points in Detroit last week. It's possible that I'm wrong & was lucky with that game as wheatrich pointed out - they made a lot of mistakes & held the Lions offense in check for 3 Qtr's. But right now with their personnel on paper I'm not sure they're any better than the Vikings right now.

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PSU is saying that with the current line, if the game had been in Chicago, the Bears would be -3. Which makes no sense, hence this line doesn't look like a great play to him.

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Duh. My bad. I misread the "in Chicago" part.

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And of course I miss the boat again on NE as it's -16.5 on Bodog now. They'll probably still cover, but I don't know if I can stomach betting these late and terrible lines.

Please come back, Pinnacle.

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GB and NYG this week.

I should've have taken NYG last week, as I had that bet circled in my bet slip. Let a friend talk me out of it. argh..

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And of course I miss the boat again on NE as it's -16.5 on Bodog now. They'll probably still cover, but I don't know if I can stomach betting these late and terrible lines.

Please come back, Pinnacle.

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bookmaker/cris posts them b4 Pinny for a while now. At least, last few times I've checked.

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Eagles even vs Bye
Eagles +7 vs Bye [if Justice starts]

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Tease the [censored] out of Atlanta at +14.5 (+8.5 on spread).

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fyp.

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Can't wait till the Browns cover this NE spread. I guess I'm the only guy taking action on the other side.

A quick strike offense(most plays over 20+ in the NFL) is one that I won't bet against, especially since they cake walked over the Ravens who didnt even get a sack.

Really good O-line + big plays + A former NE coach =

Browns Cover.

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+ NE short week.