Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

Don't mean to infringe on Daliman's thread starting, but a lot of close calls this week I'd like to get some thoughts on. Odds vary depending on where you look.

Falcons (+2.5 with plus odds or +3 with big minus)
Minnesota (+2) definitely
San Francisco (+2) definitely
New England -7.5 with plus odds, -7 with minus odds
Detroit (+2.5 with plus odds in some places)

How far can the +2.5 or -7.5 get positive odds and have it still be +EV at 6pt 2 team -110?

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

I teased on the 25th Detroit w/ the Patriots and got +8.5 and -2 on 5Dimes. Only one I touched so far. Looks like both are at that still on 5Dimes.


Showing a true Pinny line of the Pats -7 and the Lions +2.5 so I am happy with that Wong so far.

Like San Fran alot, not sure about the Falcons but no Johnson for Houston is huge for them. That is if the Falcons can just not suck complete a$$. All the "smart/sharp" cappers around the net love Minny outright which I don't care for. But with the magic of Wong I don't mind it too much.

-Brendan

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

What about the big negative +3 dogs, NYG +3(-120) and TB +3(-120)? NYG is at home, so I would think that this is a profitable play, maybe not TB, though.

When there are so many plays, how do you really pick and choose? I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).

I know that this is covered in the FAQ, but I'm still pretty unsure.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

given that road favorites are the worst subset of the modern era on basic teasers, I would skip out on using New England when they might not even fit the criteria to begin with

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

I'd love to hear what Daliman has to say on this, but I'm avoiding NE this week because they are a road favorite, and I'm showing that road favorites that are technically "wongable" only cover 66% of the time, not enough to be profitable in a combination.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

jinx, you owe me a coke

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

I love NE to outright cover the 7 so that is why I played them in the teaser. I do agree they are one of the weaker plays since it is a road fav.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to hear what Daliman has to say on this, but I'm avoiding NE this week because they are a road favorite, and I'm showing that road favorites that are technically "wongable" only cover 66% of the time, not enough to be profitable in a combination.

[/ QUOTE ]
Far as I'm concerned, a Wong is a Wong. Sure, road faves are the worst performing wong subset, but they are still profitable over most stretches.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you been watching some USF football and drinking?

Agree 100% that these teasers suck compared to last year. No good sites to get 1:1 odds on 2 teamers and whether people agree or not sites are keeping lines out of the "Wong" range.

I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

I agree and said that NE wasn't a good Wong but I think they outright own Cincy this Monday.

Right now the Falcons, Lions, SF and NYGs all are Wongable from what I see. Pinny has SF at +1 +111 which looks to me like they don't want to move it to +1.5 and into Wong range.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thremp, about teasing +3 to +9: page 158, paragraph 4

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread the chapter again, and nowhere did I find the statement "use closing lines" or "let the lines sharpen".

If I am wrong, someone please point me to the page.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I teased on the 25th Detroit w/ the Patriots and got +8.5 and -2 on 5Dimes . Only one I touched so far. Looks like both are at that still on 5Dimes.


Showing a true Pinny line of the Pats -7 and the Lions +2.5 so I am happy with that Wong so far.



[/ QUOTE ]

You got f'd for a full point. Why would you be happy with this?

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).


[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely preposterous.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).


[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely preposterous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was not saying I'll outbet my bankroll, just that I don't feel comfortable with 30%+(if the other 2-3 games are Wongable) of my bankroll on any given weekend.

I would love to hear why it is preposterous(no sarcasm).

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

KDog I am happy because I would still play the Pats -7 with the Lions +8.5 if I had to. Call my confident in the play. Watch Cincy now blowout the Pats but hey shiat happens.

The difference between -2 and -1 is about 1.5% in game wins I believe so not a huge deal.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I do too but I move it to the point where it's -105/-105. Pinny will put up lines a point or 1.5 off the true line and offer plus odds so that they're not Wongable.

So, my initial question: How + can the true line's odds get on +2.5 or -7.5 and have the Wong still be +EV?

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread the chapter again, and nowhere did I find the statement "use closing lines" or "let the lines sharpen".

If I am wrong, someone please point me to the page.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason to "wait for the line to sharpen" on these is to reduce variance - unless, of course, you are able to predict line movements. If you can do that, you should only wait "for the line to sharpen" when the line will move in your favor.

Just bet early and bet often. If you have a big enough roll (and use a unit size the "fits" with your roll, and edge) little bit of variance isn't going to kill you.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

Gaining the 8/9 are virtually worthless. Losing half the 3 is a disaster of hooge proportions.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gaining the 8/9 are virtually worthless. Losing half the 3 is a disaster of hooge proportions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed on teasing -9 to -3, not good.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

Ok I'll take a shot at what I believe Thremp is trying to get accross.

For example - ATL, DET, SF, and NYG are all balancing between true lines of +2.5-3 (that is according to Pinny). If you make the tease when the lines are at 2.5 but then closer to gametime the line "sharpens" to the even 3 points then you have missed out on a lot of EV. I would gather that the wongs are still profitable in the situation above but betting on straight outcomes would be even more +EV to be had.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

My point was that by not waiting for the line to sharpen you increase you variance and do not effect EV in the LONG TERM.

Yes, sometimes it'll move against you and you'll take an EV hit. Other times, the line will move in your favor.

Think long term and not short term and we won't have to see any more arguments about when the best time is to place a teaser bet.

Just get the bet down and move on. Variance don't hurt much.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

[ QUOTE ]
My point was that by not waiting for the line to sharpen you increase you variance and do not effect EV in the LONG TERM.

Yes, sometimes it'll move against you and you'll take an EV hit. Other times, the line will move in your favor.

Think long term and not short term and we won't have to see any more arguments about when the best time is to place a teaser bet.

Just get the bet down and move on. Variance don't hurt much.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys just don't understand. It's not variance, it's poor strategy. If you aren't betting the sharp line you might end up betting on a game that isn't even wongable. If you take a game at -7.5 and then it moves to -6.5, that is a terrible play. Assuming that an equal amount of time the line stays the same, goes in your favor, or goes against you, you are getting the worst of it.

People say that they can predict the line moves (which they probably can't) but if you can than you should be betting on those lines against the spread and not looking to wong them.

I don't wait until kickoff like Thremp does (mostly because I'm not usually around a computer Sunday morning) Saturday nights seem to be a decent time to do wongs since most major line movement has already occurred.

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

ty paper, for saying what I was attempting to say

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

paper,

Yeah, I don't fault anyone for putting them in on the weekend as most movement occurs. I just do it Sunday morning since I wake up early anyway (or sometimes do). But to bet wong teasers on openers would be stupid.

hoqua,

You are wrong... again. Continue just to leach arbs and not spread misinformation (albeit only once every few months).

Re: Wong Teasers, Week 4
 

To answer your bottom question I would want -7 -115 or +3 -125. These two lines are roughly equivalent to -7.5 even and +2.5 even which is the ending limit of the wong range. Plus you get the half point even if it is a worthless 9 (the 1 isn't completely awful though).

I'd also add the Giants to your list (TB is -120 so I'd wait and see if they get more sharp action tomorrow)