Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Only 50 hands in at the table SB is running 12/10/2.3 so far (His lead out on turn I found weird too). Button is running 40/1.9/0.3 (He's the one that worries me, cold call 2 bets on flop, then raises turn). My thinking was 2 guys making weird plays, someone hit the flop or turn hard.
I'm saying all pocket pairs are major part of both villains ranges.

Yes I should have capped PF. No good reason I didn't, just a donkey.

Oink, flamming allowed on this one if necessary.

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

River: (13.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

if button's 0.3 AF is over a long sample, then i think you made a good fold.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

This seems pretty bad imo.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

This pot is too big to fold, especially since the button might only have 2 pair here.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is too big to fold, especially since the button might only have 2 pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, but you still only have 2 outs vs. the SB's QQ-AA, and your normal counterfeit "outs" aren't yours.

I think the way you played this hand, the turn fold is good.

But you should have capped PF.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Well I would have raised the turn to begin with. This is Tx or worse a lot. Plus if the other guy is incline to call 2 with a worse hand again that's good.

I actually think it's pretty close when you call and BT raises. If the sample is large enough, I might find a fold (would have to do some math might be call-fold UI). This line is a slowplayed set a lot. If we're talking about 100-300 hands though, I'm calling down.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

I've seen some 0.3AF types makes some slightly weird raises before. And obviously he can be cold-calling PF with a fairly wide-range given his 40/2-ness.
So I'm thinking that it's possible for him to get frisky here with 9s7s or Js9s on the turn. Or even something silly like AT or As8s.
It could even be something as ridiculous as 32 or 43 in which case you have plenty of outs.

I just can't trust a guy with such passive stats to be choosing the right times to slow-play or raise because he's already so ridiculous.

This might be calling-station-monkeyish of me though.
With an AF of 0.3 there's a decent chance you are just drawing to your 2-outer obviously.

But even if the chances of your JJ only having 2 outs are fairly large it still means you have a 23 to 1 shot and are getting pot-odds of 13:1. Not enough odds on its own to warrant a call of course but at least it's something and when you combine that with the slim chance that you are still ahead and/or drawing to outs to counterfeit a 2-pair somewhere in there and I think a call is okay.

Also, when the SB donks the turn I think I'm raising again here.

It's a weird hand and I think you can hardly be blamed for folding given the dude's AF but I might be able to make enough excuses to spew some more of my chips to him.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, that's a bit weird too. Not sure what to make of that unless he thinks you might be on flush-draw or overcards perhaps. Was timid at first and didn't want to 3-bet with his JT or something...and then changed his mind and decided to bet out again at it.

Some of the donk-bets out there come with some weird reasons/logic. If you think too much about them they can confuse you perhaps more than they were even trying to.

He also could just be multi-tabling on too many tables and lost track of what had happened in that hand or something. For a 12/10 super-nit, even after only 50 hds, I'm guessing that this is possible.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]

But even if the chances of your JJ only having 2 outs are fairly large it still means you have a 23 to 1 shot and are getting pot-odds of 13:1. Not enough odds on its own to warrant a call of course but at least it's something and when you combine that with the slim chance that you are still ahead and/or drawing to outs to counterfeit a 2-pair somewhere in there and I think a call is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thinking about this some more:
Lets say there's an 80% chance someone else has a set or overpair here and you're drawing to 2 outs.

Maybe a 5% chance your JJ is still ahead here and you're trying to dodge their combined outs of which they have perhaps 15 or so.

And 15% chance that you have additional outs via a counterfeited 2-pair so maybe roughly 5 outs in such situations considering you don't know which outs those are and some of the time something that might have been an out will actually be giving somebody else a full-house and that will usually cost you.

So at:
80% is 2 outs
15% is 5 outs
you are already close to a 3-outer on average which is starting to get close to the pot-odds you are already getting.
3/46 = 6.5%
1/13 = 7.6%

Tack on as low as a 5% chance that your JJ is somehow still ahead here and that probably swings it to a call I think.

This might be some really generous workings on the numbers though. But it goes to show how sure you need to be to make such a lay-down in a large pot.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

[/ QUOTE ]

BT cold calling the flop isn't a weird line for him though. It's probably his SOP. The part of his range that has you beat is a very small part of his flop CC'ing range.

As to SB, stop and go doesn't impress me. It's not like you always have the best hand. He could have AA-QQ or TT/88 but mostly he has AT/KT/99/77/66 or something even more retarded like AK. With the other guy likely padding the pot with his pair/draw, it's a raise IMO. Calldown if 3-bet because of outs and AT.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Leader. Super small sample I know. But looking at his stats so far you need to discount KT, AT, 99, 88 heavily.

@OP

I think you played this one well. Capping preflop is fine but with those stats of SB you are prolly not giving up a lot. However, since its 3-way you need to cap unless you are VERY sure that the SB's range is JJ+, AKs. And as stated in other threads; you cant be that sure after 50 hands.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Leader. Super small sample I know. But looking at his stats so far you need to discount KT, AT, 99, 88 heavily.

[/ QUOTE ]

I consider that read basically worthless for anything more then deducing that he's probably tight. I've never seen a 12/10 guy in 6m so I'm going to assume that he's running bad with starting cards. The fact that he's raised almost all of them suggest that he's much more likely to be 25/17 then 25/10. KT should probably be discounted some though. It should also be noted though that most players with PFR between 15-20 3-bet the same things in this particular spot.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Since you didn't cap before the flop (which I would have), SB probably doesn't put you on an overpair. He may interpret you raise on the flop as an attempt to get a free card on the turn and foils that by donking the turn again. I will definitely raise here again because I am probably ahead and need to charge Button to draw to his flush (which is still the most likely holding at this point) or 5 outer (split pair).

As played, I would probably call down after Button' raise. I may even have 8 outs to beat him if he has 2 pair. Close decision though.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since you didn't cap before the flop (which I would have), SB probably doesn't put you on an overpair. He may interpret you raise on the flop as an attempt to get a free card on the turn and foils that by donking the turn again. I will definitely raise here again because I am probably ahead and need to charge Button to draw to his flush (which is still the most likely holding at this point) or 5 outer (split pair).

As played, I would probably call down after Button' raise. I may even have 8 outs to beat him if he has 2 pair. Close decision though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put SB on?

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put SB on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, I see what you mean. Pretty stupid I didn't consider the preflop action. SB cannot have many hands that you beat. AK, AQ of spades are the only real possibilities (only one combination both). You are behind to AA-QQ and TT, split with an unlikely JJ (only one combination). He probably won't 3-bet worse hands preflop and he's unlikely to donk again with just 2 overcards.

Actually, now that I think of it more, I agree with the fold. You need to be ahead of both players here and I doubt this will be the case often enough for calling down to be EV+.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

[/ QUOTE ]


If one is drawing and the other gets gun-shy with just a T then there's a chance that an A or K on the river would end up getting checked-around for a free-showdown.

Not saying it's a guarantee or anything. But I've been including some weird drawing possibilities for the last player and if that's the case I don't think he's going to fire a bluff at the end against 2 opponents.

So I still think we're close to being able to call.
But that dude raising with a 0.3AF is still pissing me off so I really don't know.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

Sorry guys for the delayed response here. Been at work. I feel a little better about the fold atleast since there are some people who say fold, but seems like the majority say call it down.

In case anyone was wondering SB showed AA, and Button showed 22 for the set. So I guess I made the right decesion on this instance, but still a little unsure for the long run. Seems like the call then fold UI (to the set) is the line I like the best depending on the betting on the river.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

I would fold pre-account creation because FT is the most rigged site ever.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold pre-account creation because FT is the most rigged site ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems as though the absolute super users have invaded FTP. This time they can also see which cards are coming, making them super superusers.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This pot is too big to fold, especially since the button might only have 2 pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, but you still only have 2 outs vs. the SB's QQ-AA, and your normal counterfeit "outs" aren't yours.

I think the way you played this hand, the turn fold is good.

But you should have capped PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, given the sequence of events, turn is a must fold. Im not sure about preflop if the SB's stats are valid.

Re: Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry guys for the delayed response here. Been at work. I feel a little better about the fold atleast since there are some people who say fold, but seems like the majority say call it down.

In case anyone was wondering SB showed AA, and Button showed 22 for the set. So I guess I made the right decesion on this instance, but still a little unsure for the long run. Seems like the call then fold UI (to the set) is the line I like the best depending on the betting on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must believe that you'll see a lot of free SD if you like that line best.