Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

villian has generally played pretty solid although in the past he has had tendencies to get out of line...i start hand with about 13k and villian covers

hand is straddled to 100, one limper to me on button with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and i limp...small blind and big blind complete...5 to the flop

A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

checked to me and i bet 400...villian in small blind calls and everyone else folds...

turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]...villian check calls my 1200 bet after some thought...

river: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]...villian slowly checks...i think for 30 seconds and bet 3200 (leaving me with 8000 behind)...villian thinks for 30 seconds and quietly says all in (he covers me)...Is this ever a bluff/do you call this bet?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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.Is this ever a bluff/do you call this bet?

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yes/yes

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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.Is this ever a bluff/do you call this bet?

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yes/yes

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Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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.Is this ever a bluff/do you call this bet?

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yes/yes

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at least the guy who can't fold is with me

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

It is a bluff sometimes...as with most threads in the high stakes forum I dont really have enough info to answer...


Your table image and recent play at the table hands shown down etc. would help.

Any physical reads>? Im at least studying or trying to get a read if possible before making any 8Kdecision here.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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.Is this ever a bluff/do you call this bet?

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yes/yes

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at least the guy who can't fold is with me

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lol

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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think for 30 seconds and bet 3200 (leaving me with 8000 behind).

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What had you planned to do vs. a shove while thinking?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

I think this pot is mostly about how villain views you.

I think he shows up here sometimes with a boat and sometimes with a mid range hand thinking you are on a bluff. If you are capable of bluffing the river and he knows it then it's an insta-call if he would try to push you off, you are getting 2.25:1 on your call.

If he is solid and can't put you on a bluff, I can't see a cr ai that you beat. What can he have that you beat? Does a solid player cr ai with Q8, T8, 98 for value? Seems kind of thin. Meanwhile you are behind A8, 78, J8, 77 all of which are possible given he completed from the small blind.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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I think this pot is mostly about how villain views you.

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I agree completely. I don't think you ever see a worse 8 here. He either has you crushed or you have him killed. If you think that he thinks you are capable of a big river bluff, then you have to call as he could have a large range of hands that you are beating. He also might make this move if he things you are exceptionally tight and he's seen you make "big lay downs" before.

Just given the info you provided, it feels like 78 or 77 to me. He seemed to call fairly quickly on the flop, but then took his time thinking on the turn, then slowly checks the river and finally thinks again before moving all in (this sounds like an acting job with a big hand).

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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I think this pot is mostly about how villain views you.

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I agree completely. I don't think you ever see a worse 8 here. He either has you crushed or you have him killed.

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What makes you say that?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

i'm kinda surprised fwf said it's a call I thought this a straight forward fold since worse 8 prob never does this/ horrible line for missed flush draw

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

I think opponents range is wider then boat here. Infact I would give him as little as AJ given positions and lines taken. Especially if 'he has a tendency to get out of line'. Other 8's could also believe they are/were trapping you the whole time. Hell he could have a busted FD and figure unless you have a boat he can chase till river and bluff if he missed. Nope, not a believer in the tight range given.

I'm in the call camp.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

I can't decide... I mean if he's VBing worse 8s then obv insta-call but I don't know if he is.. and if he's not I'm pretty sure you can lay it down if your read isn't that he's "fully capable and willing to bluff frequently in this spot"..

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

obviously not easy to break down so finely, but hwat percent of the time is this a boat? a naked 8? a straight? a bluff against a relative unknown in your experience?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

looks like a fold.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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obviously not easy to break down so finely, but hwat percent of the time is this a boat? a naked 8? a straight? a bluff against a relative unknown in your experience?

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again, the breakdown is going to depend on what kind of line he thinks you take here. you limped from the button ("position limp") then he check calls every street. his pre-flop action is easily consistent with everything but JJ, AA (AA, JJ he better KNOW the bb is going to pop it).

You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

If he puts you on < trips, then he jams with any trips or better. So I see it breaking down exactly along the lines of the math: 32/44 = 8/11 times he has (75%) of the time you have him, 25% of the time he has you. Maybe its a little less if you see him dumping 28, 38, etc, but based on his position, I see him in with any of those hands.

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.

Going back to start, if he sees you as checking behind a middle trips, then K8 is the worst hand you show up with here and I don't see a cr ai with < a boat.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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What makes you say that?

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Because this is a very unusual line for a reasonable player to take with a naked 8 unless he really thinks you are a live one.

What hands are you representing by making a nearly pot sized bet on the river? If he puts you on a missed flush draw or a thin value bet with Aces Up, then he snap calls with his trip 8s. What is the point of pushing with trips unless he thinks you might have a hand to call with that he beats? Any hand better than his is very likely going to call and worse hands are going to fold. The only exception would be if he could somehow put you precisely on K8 or Q8 and think his check raise AI on the river might get you to fold. But that is a big assumption and hardly worth the risk vs reward for when he is wrong and you call with those hands or when you actually have a boat.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

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great post as usual

but then again, it's a live new york game.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
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Since when does trips beat a straight?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

Looks like T9ss

RESULTS
 

so i actually was not hero in the hand, just observing a friend who was hero...i agree with a lot of Cero's analysis (i usually do) except that cero doesnt adjust for the game being in NYC - i think flush draw is a very real possibility...i still think this is rarely a bluff...even if small blind is putting hero on a flush draw, strong A, weak 8 it would be very difficult to cc,cc,crai without a monster...that line as a bluff is either suicide or a plan A until the river that becomes a plan B...

anyways, htought there were interesting aspects to the hand...hero did fold and SB did not show

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

yes/yes
I think he's got an A.

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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yes/yes
I think he's got an A.

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gotta be an ace!

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

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awesome

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
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Since when does trips beat a straight?

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Never

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
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Since when does trips beat a straight?

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in certain variants of guts and chinese poker pretty sure trips beat a straight

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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Looks like T9ss

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This is really interesting.

If villain has T9ss is it profitable to cr ai on the river?

What is hero's range? Easily includes 68 - A8, does it make sense to crai if you think you fold out all the naked eights and only get called by the fulls? If this is true, then isn't this a perfect situation to bluff with a broken fd?

Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
 

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I can't decide... I mean if he's VBing worse 8s then obv insta-call but I don't know if he is.. and if he's not I'm pretty sure you can lay it down if your read isn't that he's "fully capable and willing to bluff frequently in this spot"..

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i think there's zero chance he has a worse 8 here.

i feel that 90% of the time he has you killed right here with a boat and 10% of the time he is bluffing, maybe with an ace or some kind of hand where he thought he might have been good on the flop but changed his mind as the hand developed.

with any hand that is probably good like a str8 or trips there is no need to push on the river since you can show down a winner. (ie why reraise if you only get called by a hand that beats you.)

i vote for the fold, at worst he has 8s full of 7s?