200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

villain here is 32/25/2.3. haven't played much with him so no history. he raises c-bets 10% and folds 55%.

his showdown stats are 30/45.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $128.40
BB: $200.00
UTG: $60.40
Hero (CO): $246.70
BTN: $405.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $28.00</font>, Hero calls $14.00

Turn: ($73) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $35.00</font>, Hero calls $35.00

River: ($143) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $100.00</font>, Hero ????

i feel like he 3-bets strong Aces pre-flop most of the time. i guess he could be capable of cold-calling w/suited As pre-flop.

i can't really see him having a draw based on flop and turn action. draws usually don't min-raise then bet small on future streets. i especially don't think and aggro opponent would do this as they usually bet play their draws stronger when they wanna get aggressive with them.

i called the turn because he bet so little, thought maybe he could be trying to get to showdown cheaply w/a medium A or AJ or something. his river bet is strong though, and once I call the river, i can't see him thinking he can bluff me off my hand here. but alas, his aggro stats and shoddy showdown stats make me wanna call here.

thoughts?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

i would c/r and get it in on the turn, that 9 is a great card for you

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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i would c/r and get it in on the turn, that 9 is a great card for you

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not sure i'm crazy about this. i explained in my OP why i don't think villain is on a draw, and if he's not on a draw, we're way ahead/way behind. and i'm not sure if he'll call w/worse.

range for villain in your view?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

bump once.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

I'm hard-pressed to find a call here. It's worth considering giving up on the turn. Either this is an uber-sophisticated 3-street move by someone against whom you have little history, or you are well and truly crushed, and I think the latter is much more likely.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

man as played river is a call.

i would have tried to get in more money earlier either on turn or flop if im goign to play it

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

we lose to nothing here imo

3bet the flop

bet the turn, c/r the turn

bet the river, c/r the river

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

I'm never ever folding this. You're behind 88/A9 only. And one quad combo. Question is how to get to sd. I'm thinking making a delayed call on the turn hoping to induce one more bluff on the river is fine. C/r turn is fine as well. Just don't fold the river ever.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

we have to put him on a draw a large % of the time to call, hence i dont think check callign down the turn is a good idea

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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we lose to nothing here imo

3bet the flop

bet the turn, c/r the turn

bet the river, c/r the river

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Yeah, 3-betting flop is fine as well. Don't really care, don't fold and try to get your opponent to put as much money in as possible with draws.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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we lose to nothing here imo


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O RLY?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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I'm never ever folding this. You're behind 88/A9 only. And one quad combo. Question is how to get to sd. I'm thinking making a delayed call on the turn hoping to induce one more bluff on the river is fine. C/r turn is fine as well. Just don't fold the river ever.

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And you are ahead of what? A very optimistic AQ? Random draws that OP's read rules out? You can't just say "ZOMG WE ONLY LOSE TO A FEW HANDS!!1!!!!1!11"

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

but we dont lose to any hands at all... he doesnt minraise the flop with a set/2pair on a board that coordinated

he has like AK/Q (outside chance of a weaker Ace vbetting hoping you have KK/QQ too i guess) or he has a busted draw like 100%

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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but we dont lose to any hands at all... he doesnt minraise the flop with a set/2pair on a board that coordinated

he has like AK/Q (outside chance of a weaker Ace vbetting hoping you have KK/QQ too i guess) or he has a busted draw like 100%

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Why not? Him adding another $5 to the bet really changes anything? I'd certainly consider minraising there, given everyone who is willing to felt AK here.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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I'm never ever folding this. You're behind 88/A9 only. And one quad combo. Question is how to get to sd. I'm thinking making a delayed call on the turn hoping to induce one more bluff on the river is fine. C/r turn is fine as well. Just don't fold the river ever.

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And you are ahead of what? A very optimistic AQ? Random draws that OP's read rules out? You can't just say "ZOMG WE ONLY LOSE TO A FEW HANDS!!1!!!!1!11"

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OP said he "feels" villain re-raises strong aces preflop. I believe him. The rest of the post he's going on analysing villain's bet- and raise-sizes, this is not being based on a the actual read of the player.

When he raises the flop he might have a fd, JT, 76, A9/A8/99/88 or air imo. On the flop the combos we're behind are 10 (assuming villain won't call off-suit Ax). On the turn we're ahead of 2 of those and the combos we're behind has decreased to 5. There's tons of FDs and oesd possible though.

I'm going to go ahead and say: ZOMG WE ONLY LOSE TO A FEW HANDS!!1!!!!1!11

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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I'd certainly consider minraising there, given everyone who is willing to felt AK here.

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I'm felting this hand both to a min-raise and a normal sized raise.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

As for the analysing of the bet- and raise-sizes. In general a min-raise on the flop is often a draw ime. I agree a draw usually bets a bit more on the turn, but you're behind of so few hands that his bet sizing on the turn isn't a big enough concern to ever consider folding. He might bet this way with A8 that all of a sudden has lost most of it's value. Or maybe Axs. Or maye a draw. We don't know really. But this hand is worth felting. However I agree it would be an even easier decision if villain had bet bigger on the turn. But whatever.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

as i was playing the hand, when the 9 hit the turn i actually said to myself "well, that makes 99 less likely".

also, do we think the villain is bluffing, or is he value betting a worse hand? does a hand like Axs value bet this river&gt;?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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but we dont lose to any hands at all... he doesnt minraise the flop with a set/2pair on a board that coordinated

he has like AK/Q (outside chance of a weaker Ace vbetting hoping you have KK/QQ too i guess) or he has a busted draw like 100%

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Why not? Him adding another $5 to the bet really changes anything? I'd certainly consider minraising there, given everyone who is willing to felt AK here.

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minraising what exactly? honestly im more scared of 55 or 67 than any hand that was ahead of us on the turn

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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also, do we think the villain is bluffing, or is he value betting a worse hand? does a hand like Axs value bet this river&gt;?

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At the river we're mostly hoping he's bluffing. I guess he'll show up with a worse Ax some of the time though. Personally I take action before the river almsot 100% of the time. If I think he's likely to bet the turn with a draw I'm calling and check/raising the turn, otherwise I'm just bombing the flop. Being oop I'm bombimg the flop most often.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

side note:

there are 8 combinations of AQ
there are 5 combinations of ALL SETS THAT WERE POSSIBLE ON THE FLOP

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

in fact there are only 10 2-pair combinations that are now ahead of us on the turn (A9 and 89), which means that in total we have:

5+10=15 hands possibly ahead of us on the turn (which have to be discounted down to liek 2 because he never ever plays any of them this way, but i digress)

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

im really really surprised that everyone is bascially wanting to get it in on the river. why???

i think 88/89/99 make up a huge part of his range here with 89 being most likely given PF.
i see this all the itme - villain rasies flop with his 2 pair, set, draw whatever. he hits nuts on the turn and thinks "i are so tricky, i bet tiny on turn cuz nothing can draw out on me now!! ooooh river, time to get some value!"
also a guy as loose/aggro as villain can be rasing flop with 2nd pair so 9x is def within his range.


you really only beat Ax and i seriosuly doubt that all of the following are true:
1) a 32/25 is flat calling PF with AQ or AJ on the button, and
2) hes raising the flop with AJ/AQ AND betting both the turn and river after you call with your obviously strong hand.
c) if he has some kind of draw, he like never bets turn that weakly.

i like a river fold

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

on another note, i really don't think analyzing the hand simpling by saying "there are X combinations of AB, and Y combinations of CD, so this is definitely a call" or whatever is the best way to go about playing the game. sure its part of hand reading but i dont thinks its the most important part. most of the time dont we have to look at the action and take it for what it is?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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i see this all the itme - villain rasies flop with his 2 pair, set, draw whatever. he hits nuts on the turn and thinks "i are so tricky, i bet tiny on turn cuz nothing can draw out on me now!! ooooh river, time to get some value!"


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Meh, this is actually pretty damn true. I'm not totally sure it's enough to fold but it might very well be. When people min-raise flops with draw (which they do 24/7 ime) they usually follow up by betting strong on the turn. When they hit a strong hand they usually bet 1/2ish pot like this.

Maybe it's possible to get away on the river. I'd usually just 3-bet the flop though so I'm screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

I see this line from draws the whole time. Minraise on flop, smallish bet on turn and then bet bigger on river when the draw misses. Not sure the reasoning for it (except some people aren't good at poker), but I think folding on the river is crazy and you are good here a high percentage of the time.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

but why would anyone bet 1/2 pot on the turn with a draw? based on stats/OP's descriptiopn i'm thinking this guy is NOT a donk, so why would he not check behind on turn or bet way stronger so he actually has some fold equity???

and why would he fire a 3rd barrel on that blank ass river when hero clearly likes his hand?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

I think it would be a good idea to look at OP's hand from Villians point of view, what does it look like? When OP called flop min raise, doesn't it look like a draw to villian? On the turn, OP checks than calls small bet, sure looks like a draw. Villian could very well have KK,AQ,AJ,A10, as OP's hand is way under repped based on flop call and turn call. I think OP need's to re-pop flop and/or cr turn.
As played, since you called turn, call river.
IMO.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

It's ridiculous to just str8 up felt this hand on the flop. Villain may be LAG pf but his rcb is only 10%. Those types rarely raise the flop with a draw. A 32/25 also 3bets ATs+ in this situation a very large % of the time.

This hand is tough b/c he rarely raises c-bets, it's a min-raise and his showdown numbers are pretty horrid. So while he is somewhat passive on the flop you wanna see what he has b/c he usually loses at SD lol. But the bet sizing does look fishy; like he has a big hand. I think in this situation I would probably just say [censored] it and call. Use the info from that hand to chase the dude around from table to table.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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Use the info from that hand to chase the dude around from table to table.

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Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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i see this all the itme - villain rasies flop with his 2 pair, set, draw whatever. he hits nuts on the turn and thinks "i are so tricky, i bet tiny on turn cuz nothing can draw out on me now!! ooooh river, time to get some value!"


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Um, seems pretty smart to me actually, since everybody else here is willing to pay off.

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c) if he has some kind of draw, he like never bets turn that weakly.


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I think the key to this hand is that Villain has position, and really none of his bets make sense with a draw. I mean, he'd have to be clueless to raise a draw on the flop with an Ace out there. You get called way too often. Just float and bluff the river if you feel like making a move.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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Use the info from that hand to chase the dude around from table to table.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

I actually don't mind this line assuming a river call. I'm not too experienced with this type of opponent so I'm not sure if a more aggro line would be better. Results?

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

Yeah, raising or check-raising the turn would have been better. OP would either win outright, block a river bluff, or more easily c/f river.

The smallish turn bet is awfully weird for a draw, but it's plausibly a feeler bet to set up a river bluff. In that case the river does seem like an attempt to push off AJ-AT, TT, or a busted draw. In this case, Villan could have TT-JJ, Ax.

Villan's line also seems like two pair or better.

When he loses showdowns, is he checking it down, calling, or betting with the worst hand? If it's the latter, then maybe a call. Otherwise fold.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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I mean, he'd have to be clueless to raise a draw on the flop with an Ace out there.

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What the hell. OP raises from CO, I don't know how often exactly an Ace is in his range but probably less than 20%. Bluff raising on an Ace board is a good move as it's hard for villain to continue without an Ace.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

lead the turn

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

You didn't lead turn because you didn't feel villain was on a draw, then why did you check river? to let him bluff what? I bet/fold $65 on river.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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I mean, he'd have to be clueless to raise a draw on the flop with an Ace out there.

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What the hell. OP raises from CO, I don't know how often exactly an Ace is in his range but probably less than 20%. Bluff raising on an Ace board is a good move as it's hard for villain to continue without an Ace.

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I didn't say a bluff. I said a draw. And if less than 20% of your CO raises have an Ace, please come play at my tables.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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Use the info from that hand to chase the dude around from table to table.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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LOL at "chasing this dude". You really think you have any significant edge? Go chase the fish.

Re: 200nl - AK flops TP and faces heat from aggro opponent.
 

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You didn't lead turn because you didn't feel villain was on a draw, then why did you check river? to let him bluff what? I bet/fold $65 on river.

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not crazy about doing this against an aggressive opponent unless i'd be willing to bet/call, which i don't really wanna do here.

i checked the river because i was unsure whether i was ahead or not and was hope to get to showdown cheaply (kinda hard to do when oop I know). just because i didn't put him on a draw, doesn't make me more confident in whether i have the best hand or not4