A J offsuit leak
 

After reading another thread about KOo being a loser, I went to my Poker Tracker and checked my losers. AQo & AJo were mine. Here is one hand I think I the line was correct but not super sure.

Poker Stars .25/.50 limit 10 max

Small Blind is 74.0/10.3/1.0/39 hands
Big Blind is 25.0/5.0/16.7/40 hands
UTG is 70.0/0.0/1.1/40 hands

Hero in on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls, UTG1 calls, HJ calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB raises, all call.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 players % 12 SB

SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG1 folds, HJ calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

I gave some though here to raising but since all but the SB has a bet in already so I would not limit the field much. Given the board and number of players there are at least 13 cards that I don't want to see. I don't see the raise is for value.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, Hero ?

Hoping not to be raised by the SB I am getting 5 to 1 to go for a 4 outer and maybe some discounted outs for the flush, say 3.5 out of the 9 flush outs? So 7.5 outs and I am getting 5 to 1 in a big pot with somewhat good implied outs.

Is my thinking somewhat solid?

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

Raise pre-flop. Why are you limping this hand when you have such nice position?

Raise the flop, you probably have the best hand but it is vunerable, lets get some money in there and try and clean up the Ks.

As played you can call down from the turn raise.

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

Raise pf, not close.

Raise flop, not close

Turn, You are in a bit of a tight spot but you have FH outs if behind and the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives you an extra out or two.

Don't call two back on the river. Sorry if you got pwned.

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

I think raising the flop is a better idea. On the turn, I probably call (hoping it doesn't go 3-4) with the possibility of folding to further action on the river.

Buzz

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

easy raise PF.

I think a raise on this flop is just spew with this large of a field. All you're going to do is bloat the pot.

Turn is "throw up in your mouth and coldcall" time. Fold to significant action on the river.

Hey KM, what happened to August's poker get together?

edited to add: flop raise is spew because too many hands are either drawing to or have hit stronger hands than ours, as Wookie so eloquently put it "we're in RIO hell".

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

I think raise PF with the button. that way you can hopefully get dead money in the pot from the blinds... It may not have worked this time...

Id raise the flop.

the turn does appear to have given UTG+1 the flush you have outs though, 6 to the FH and another spade to give you possibly a higher flush. id call and try to call the river for one bet if you go UI.

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think a raise on this flop is just spew with this large of a field. All you're going to do is bloat the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're bloating the pot for the 50% of times that the FD or SD doesn't come home and you win. Bloating pots is good when you are ahead.

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

I don't care about pre-flop. I would've probably raised, but I agree that your value here is marginal. Many people call with good hands like KQs in micro-limits.

However, I would raise on the flop. I actually have TPTK, I WANT people in for value and don't want to chase anybody away. True, anybody with a T or a flush draw stays in and combined we are not a favorite to win the hand, but we are way above breakeven (I would put us around 33% to win the hand, which is great considering it's 6-handed).

Well, on the turn, a flop raise might have given you more information. As it is you have to draw to a measly flush or an unlikely full house. Call. Let's see the river... ugh!

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a raise on this flop is just spew with this large of a field. All you're going to do is bloat the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're bloating the pot for the 50% of times that the FD or SD doesn't come home and you win. Bloating pots is good when you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

That depends on whether bloating the pot will make you play worse on the later streets. If you have "big pot = auto-calldown" syndrome, then you might forgo a bloated pot to avoid sucking yourself into a bad calldown (where you will likely lose more money than you gained by bloating the pot). If you can get away from your hand when the pot is big, bloating becomes a little better.

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

raise preflop, raise flop - it is for value i think, there are three people in the pot, you dont think they all have straights allready? no; so, you have TPTK, raise while you have the best hand.
on the turn you can call.
on the river, call one, o/w fold UI.

as for your reasoning, i don't think you have 9 flush outs, because if you do, you probably still have the best hand (ps- i'm not sure if that's legit logic when counting outs) - unless ofcourse utg1 slowplayed a made straight on the flop (don't think so).

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

meh call the turn

i think i call/raise 40/60 preflop here, and i rarely raise this flop

over how big a sample are they losers?

Re: A J offsuit leak
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hoping not to be raised by the SB I am getting 5 to 1 to go for a 4 outer and maybe some discounted outs for the flush, say 3.5 out of the 9 flush outs? So 7.5 outs and I am getting 5 to 1 in a big pot with somewhat good implied outs.

Is my thinking somewhat solid?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it is, for this street. Given that your flush draw is a one-carder to the third nuts, giving it 3½ outs is generous considering any one of the five other players could have the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in their hands, or may already have a made flush, which is bad because it lessens the amount of spades you can catch and increases the probability that you're drawing dead to it and can only win with a full house.

With that in mind, I also don't think your implied odds are "somewhat good." Yeah, if you boat up your implieds are enormous, but on the 42 other cards you're stuck. If you're behind you're probably paying off, and if you're ahead you're not going to be able to extract maximum value because the board is too scary. Of course, that's assuming you make it to the river for only the two bets you're putting in now. So I'd say your implied odds are neutral at best, leaning somewhat toward RIO.

This is why you raise the previous two streets. You probably had the best hand then and were getting money in with the best of it; furthermore, on the odd times something like this happens, the pot is bigger and you can more profitably draw.