AK Move In Question
 

Forgive me if this has been discussed before.

Nine handed 25-50 game with typical players for those stakes. They all have you covered. Early position brings it in for 200. Three callers. You have AK in the big blind.

Obviously with any kind of shortish stack you would move in. My question is how big does that stack have to be before you would seriously consider not moving in? And how would being suited change your answer?

Re: AK Move In Question
 

5k?

Re: AK Move In Question
 

About $4500 and suitedness should make a diff because it drastically affects your equity against AA.. but that's just a quick response

Easy calculation if you make the simplifying assumption of:

1. No one other than initial raiser can ever have a good enough hand to call

2. Raising range of initial raiser is a typical tight one for UTG (AQs, AK, TT+)

3. Initial raiser will call with KK and AA

If I had more curiosity about the question I'd calculate it.. maybe I will later

edit: ok here's my calc

AQs, AK, TT+ when YOU have AK is 36 different possible combinations that he is raising with. He'll call with only KK and AA so that's only 6 combinations. He calls 1/6 of the time.

Your equity against AA/KK with AKo+AKs is 80/20

EV = 5/6*(200+200+200+25+50) - (1/6)*(0.8-0.2)(stack size)

Solve for stack size

562 - 0.1*stack size

So if your stack size is like 5.6k it becomes EV neutral

If you are specifically suited you can push for about 6.2k
If you are specifically unsuited you can only push for about 5.4k

This doesn't truly answer the question because you must evaluate this in comparison to the EV of playing the hand in other ways.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

AZK are you saying that in the BB with 100BBs if someone raises 4x BB pf you will just move in? Seems a little drastic to me.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

Intuition - I'd say about $3.5k as that is about 3x pot raise...

Re: AK Move In Question
 

I am saying if utg raises to 200 and nothing is out of the ordinary and he gets 3 callers I don't really have a problem throwing 4-5k all-in as a short stack...

Edit: I am assuming this is a live, deep game...online I probably wouldn't feel as hot.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

lets assume its online. I wouldnt feel comfortable, (especially if he was TAG) doing this with say, more than 1200.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

online it's much different. Even still, you need to get much more comfortable doing this with more money than 1200, if you don't you will get run over.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

1000/1500

The walk back to Houston is hot and dusty in the summer.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
online it's much different. Even still, you need to get much more comfortable doing this with more money than 1200, if you don't you will get run over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how folding AK here with a 5k stack will cause you to "get run over". I think that dumping here could be seen as a very good play.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

i'm not saying shove 5k, but i am saying you should be happy to shove with 1200+ online...

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Intuition - I'd say about $3.5k as that is about 3x pot raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AK Move In Question
 

David,

Please define typical.

J

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
200+200+200+25+50

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed a caller, so it's actually like 7.3k with your assumptions.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
200+200+200+25+50

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed a caller, so it's actually like 7.3k with your assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

whoops!

thanks

Re: AK Move In Question
 

UTG calls with QQ, JJ, here sometimes.

When I first saw this question I came up with a figure very close to gomberg's $3500, but I can't muster any theoretical defense, it just feels right.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

Just off of "feel" I would insta push $2.5K, anything more and I would consider other options, how the opponet plays etc. I might still however conclude pushing is correct.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

throwing in QQ/JJ won't change the 6-7k result much b/c the equity is pretty even

Re: AK Move In Question
 

oops, ignore my post - i didn't read the '3 callers' part. that changed a lot

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Intuition - I'd say about $3.5k as that is about 3x pot raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't 3X the pot a little over $2,600?

Re: AK Move In Question
 

$200 raise + 3 callers of $200 + your call of $200 + SB of $25 = $1025. 3xpot raise is calling $200 and raising 3x$1025 on top. So it's to $3275.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

David, there's a simple rule of thumb you can use here- r/f, where r is the amount of your standard re-raise (for the particular scenario), and f is the fraction of your stack you are willing to commit and take a flop with (again, for the particular scenario).

For example if you follow Jesus' general recommendation of not putting more than 25% of your (effective) stack in prf, and typically raise to 2.5*opp's bet, 2.5/.25= 10, you would jam if you had less than 200*10= 2000.

As for specific values for r and f , I'll let others elaborate, but as you probably know they will vary depending primarily on opposing distributions.

But of course this says nothing about the max stack where its +EV to jam (which is trivial to calculate given opposing ranges), just about the point where we assume it becomes detrimental not to jam given the relative depths.

As an aside Greenstein's general recommendation here would be to jam w/ <8*opp's bet (see AoTR).

edit: actually I didn't notice the callers here, forgive me. The formula still applies though.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

why are your questions always about moving in pf? in a 9 handed game this doesnt happen much.

not that I dont like your question(s), just wondering why you focus so much on moving in pf. (pf play in isolation, I believe, is the most important stage; but that is raise, limp, call, etc. not move in)

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
why are your questions always about moving in pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably cause its a helluvalot easier to quantify than street-by-street play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why are your questions always about moving in pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably cause its a helluvalot easier to quantify than street-by-street play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I think, too.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

for some reason when I said 1.2k I was thinking in terms of the 2k party games. I guess the similar amount in the 5k game would be 3.5k. Id push that amount of less.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
As an aside Greenstein's general recommendation here would be to jam w/ <8*opp's bet (see AoTR).

[/ QUOTE ]HUH? are you saying his recommendation is only if opponent raises to 200 (assume no cold callers), only push AK if you have less than 1600? that can't be right.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

zeebo,

Why can't that be right? How many big blinds do you think AK is worth?

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
About $4500 and suitedness should make a diff because it drastically affects your equity against AA.. but that's just a quick response

Easy calculation if you make the simplifying assumption of:

1. No one other than initial raiser can ever have a good enough hand to call

2. Raising range of initial raiser is a typical tight one for UTG (AQs, AK, TT+)

3. Initial raiser will call with KK and AA

If I had more curiosity about the question I'd calculate it.. maybe I will later

edit: ok here's my calc

AQs, AK, TT+ when YOU have AK is 36 different possible combinations that he is raising with. He'll call with only KK and AA so that's only 6 combinations. He calls 1/6 of the time.

Your equity against AA/KK with AKo+AKs is 80/20

EV = 5/6*(200+200+200+25+50) - (1/6)*(0.8-0.2)(stack size)

Solve for stack size

562 - 0.1*stack size

So if your stack size is like 5.6k it becomes EV neutral

If you are specifically suited you can push for about 6.2k
If you are specifically unsuited you can only push for about 5.4k

This doesn't truly answer the question because you must evaluate this in comparison to the EV of playing the hand in other ways.

[/ QUOTE ]


Holding an ace and king in our hand reduces the chance that anyone holds AA or KK -- however, your range for UTG raises here is too wide.

Typical TAG play here is to raise with AK AA KK QQ, and limp JJ and TT 80% or so. Also, AA is also probably being limped here about 50% of the time, so the real range here is .5xAA, 1xKK, 1xQQ, .2xJJ, .2xTT. This is obv a very rough estimate, but assigning equal prob to all hands here seems wrong.

AQs raised UTG seems improbable for a TAG player.

Further, you will get called by AA 100% here but KK is player dependant and stack dependant. If you push with 100bb+ here KK will be folded by a TAG player a good amount of the time, especially at this level, which also needs to factor into this calculation.

The first flat caller may also hold AA or KK a significant amount of the time in this spot, especially at this level, and especially if the UTG player is TAG.

My guess, without doing any of the math, is that a push is correct with approx $2,000.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

The larger you raise in relation to the opening raise, then the more is screams you don't want to see a flop. So only if you would (have been seen to) push any similar size stack with AA/KK so as not to have to play it OOP, can QQ calling that push be removed from any calculations.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Holding an ace and king in our hand reduces the chance that anyone holds AA or KK -- however, your range for UTG raises here is too wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Holding an ace and king in our hand reduces the chance that anyone holds AA or KK -- however, your range for UTG raises here is too wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv completely player dependant, however, most TAGs at this level are not going to be popping it with AQ UTG, and most are going to limp JJ and TT a significant amount of the time.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As an aside Greenstein's general recommendation here would be to jam w/ <8*opp's bet (see AoTR).

[/ QUOTE ]HUH? are you saying his recommendation is only if opponent raises to 200 (assume no cold callers), only push AK if you have less than 1600? that can't be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should clarify. Looking back he says "this is the play he "normally" makes when he has less than 8*the raise" [paraphrased], not that he won't ever jam w/ more.

Personally I think 10* would be a much better general figure.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]

Obv completely player dependant, however, most TAGs at this level are not going to be popping it with AQ UTG, and most are going to limp JJ and TT a significant amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really the case?

Re: AK Move In Question
 

I would say it could be as little as 3k. Here's why:

If you reraise to say 1100 w/ the intention of betting/calling all-in on any flop, you will get some incorrect folds from your opponent on the flop. Once in a while he'll call your preflop raise with AK, TT, 99, etc. and the board will be unfavorable enough for him to not call an all-in whereas he would either be ahead or tied with you.

As a result, reraising to 1100 would show a higher EV.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
why are your questions always about moving in pf? in a 9 handed game this doesnt happen much.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm sure I'll get flamed for saying this, but I think pre-flop decisions in a full-handed game are where a lot of the mistakes are made.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
$200 raise + 3 callers of $200 + your call of $200 + SB of $25 = $1025. 3xpot raise is calling $200 and raising 3x$1025 on top. So it's to $3275.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, it would help if read the post right huh? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

i thought there was two callers which would have been the $200 raise + 2 callers of $200 + Hero's call of $200 + $25= $825 on top. so then 3X the pot would have been ~2500. sorry, i can't read.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

I'd move in with $1000 or less. Anything over, I'll slowplay call.

Re: AK Move In Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why are your questions always about moving in pf? in a 9 handed game this doesnt happen much.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm sure I'll get flamed for saying this, but I think pre-flop decisions in a full-handed game are where a lot of the mistakes are made.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%, but the decisions which are errors are (as I said) the calls, raises, limps, etc. not the big all in decisions (largely because they dont happen enough)

Re: AK Move In Question
 

All,

I think this question is more interesting if you answer (given the pre-flop action) what range of stack size you push with each of AQ/AK/99/AA there.