Arr in?
 

Villain seems competent over 10 hands. His bet sizing makes me think I'm dead on the flop

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($882)
MP ($2133.25)
Button ($1348)
SB ($4711.55)
Hero ($970)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $121</font>, Hero calls $111, MP folds.

Flop: ($272) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $240</font>, Hero?

Re: Arr in?
 

easy arr in.

Re: Arr in?
 

4bet pre to like $375 and call shove. As played, I hate to do it, but folding just might be best. Every big pair has u crushed except KK you chop with, AQ is the only hand you're really ahead of, which I assume is folding this flop if SB is decent, and AK obv has u drawing to 3 outs. This is rele disgusting flop situation. Not just being results oriented, but plz 4bet preflop.

Re: Arr in?
 

jesus thats a terrible flop

Re: Arr in?
 

Your equity against a standard 3betting range sucks on this flop.

If you shove and get called you're more than likely drawing to a straight, and your ace outs might be dead. I think shoving is bad here.

This is one of those fold and don't tell anyone situations.

Re: Arr in?
 

i guess i would fold.. you are really a dog against almost every thing in his range and you are maybe drawing to a split.

Re: Arr in?
 

you guys do realize the people 4 bet light sometimes right?

Re: Arr in?
 

wtf, push! he might as well have Ad-2d or 7d-6d and just committing himself with that $240 bet.

Re: Arr in?
 

I push, if the flop was QJx instead of QJT I woulda folded vs an uknown.

Re: Arr in?
 

pushing here is so bad

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I push, if the flop was QJx instead of QJT I woulda folded vs an uknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You would what?


Board: Qh Jh Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.124% 71.73% 04.40% 102255 6267.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.876% 19.48% 04.40% 27771 6267.00 { KK }


Board: Qh Jh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.282% 50.35% 01.94% 80745 3105.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.718% 45.78% 01.94% 73425 3105.00 { KK }

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pushing here is so bad

[/ QUOTE ]

yea and wtf at folding a QJx flop but shoving this one? That makes almost no sense to me.

Re: Arr in?
 

Good god fold please

Re: Arr in?
 

He is likely putting you on QQ/JJ and firing huge at a QJT flop, what do you put him on.

Re: Arr in?
 

4bet pf...
hurts but fold flop... how bad is taking another card here ip?

Re: Arr in?
 

Is he really leading out with a near pot bet with a set here though ?

Re: Arr in?
 

4b preflop plz, calling preflop is so gross for just this reason

Re: Arr in?
 

4-betting with KK is so hawt.

Re: Arr in?
 

To all of you saying 4-bet preflop, stop being so results oriented. Are you saying you always 4-bet KK and AA? Your games must be really aggressive to pull that off for max EV.

Re: Arr in?
 

I fold this flop too, mostly because we have given ourselves a pretty tight range by the overcall and he's still bombing that flop.

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push, if the flop was QJx instead of QJT I woulda folded vs an uknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You would what?


Board: Qh Jh Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.124% 71.73% 04.40% 102255 6267.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.876% 19.48% 04.40% 27771 6267.00 { KK }


Board: Qh Jh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.282% 50.35% 01.94% 80745 3105.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.718% 45.78% 01.94% 73425 3105.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]
my first instinct was actually insta-fold but changed my mind. not sure but I think folding might be best. if proceeding calling and calling any turn might be the wtg. if pushing is a mistake its not a huge mistake though.

regarding my QJx comment the equity vs this range of course is important, but for it to be 100% relevant the $240 bet should be all-in and he should play all the hands this way. for ex I dont think its that likely he bets close to pot with AK or TT (or something like 99-88 for that matter).

he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.

another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.

if you think I am off here you are very welcome to say that but I hope you come with some eloboratation not just "you are wrong".

Re: Arr in?
 

4 bet preflop.

As played fold.

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
regarding my QJx comment the equity vs this range of course is important, but for it to be 100% relevant the $240 bet should be all-in and he should play all the hands this way. for ex I dont think its that likely he bets close to pot with AK or TT (or something like 99-88 for that matter).

[/ QUOTE ]
Fwiw I think the chance of him betting pot with a flopped set goes down on the 2nd less co-ordinated, QJx-board, as well.


[ QUOTE ]
he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just to state the obvious, this is in favor of felting the QJx-board. The one you're saying you're not felting.


[ QUOTE ]
another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just not true. On the QJT-board you're drawing to 3 split outs vs 8 combos of AK (counted 1.5 outs). On the QJx-board you're drawing dead (ie 2 outs + backdoors) vs only 6 combos of QQ/JJ.


While I do agree he's less likely to bet close to pot on QJx with AK/TT, the difference in equity is faaar too big for this to make up for it. Let's for example say we discount all 6 TT-combos:


Board: Jh Qh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.883% 33.39% 02.49% 41655 3105.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 64.117% 61.63% 02.49% 76875 3105.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


The difference is still huge.

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Just to state the obvious, this is in favor of felting the QJx-board. The one you're saying you're not felting.


[/ QUOTE ]
true, my mistake.

[ QUOTE ]

another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


This is just not true. On the QJT-board you're drawing to 3 split outs vs 8 combos of AK (counted 1.5 outs). On the QJx-board you're drawing dead (ie 2 outs + backdoors) vs only 6 combos of QQ/JJ.


[/ QUOTE ]
dont forget AA making it 12 combos.

however, I have no problem confessing I was wrong when I was and I was prolly wrong here regarding pushing the QJx makes more sense than QJT.

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
dont forget AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct.

For your benefit, you'll probably have a slightly higher equity when the money actually goes in on a QJT-board than on a QJx-board. Still not enough I'd say...

Re: Arr in?
 

oh wow, now this is interesting

I think just looking at this hand for 5 seconds i just see "omg 10 outs all in", but its pretty profound how awful our equity is.

Re: Arr in?
 

pits

Re: Arr in?
 

Profoundly if you shove he will put you on AK

Re: Arr in?
 

I have no problem with calling preflop. However, you gotta toss it now.

Re: Arr in?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is he really leading out with a near pot bet with a set here though ?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

Re: Arr in?
 

I shoved and he had JJ and I won