AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

Villian is mediocre and a little loose.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($11.75)
MP2 ($11.25)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 ($46.45)</font>
CO ($168.55)
Button ($9.25)
SB ($49.50)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($56.45)</font>
UTG ($11.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9.5</font>, MP3 calls $9.50.

Turn: ($33.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

What is his 3 bet calling range? That would help. Would he do it with AJ or worse? Suited Clubs like KQs in his range? How about his fold to cbet stats?

Your SPR is in the commitment range at about 2.5, but it is a RR pot so that moves it down. I still think it is in the range though. That doesnt mean we have to get AI though.

If villain would bet worse hands, that he might fold if you lead the turn then I would hand him the rope. I would be committed at this point.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is his 3 bet calling range? That would help. Would he do it with AJ or worse? Suited Clubs like KQs in his range? How about his fold to cbet stats?

Your SPR is in the commitment range at about 2.5, but it is a RR pot so that moves it down. I still think it is in the range though. That doesnt mean we have to get AI though.

If villain would bet worse hands, that he might fold if you lead the turn then I would hand him the rope. I would be committed at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't seen him get 3bet ever. I have like 25 total hands on him so cbet stats and everything else are meaningless. I'm not thinking of folding the turn fwiw, was mainly wondering about lead vs. crai vs. c/c. I'm sure he can call with worse aces and all kinds of stuff since he's playing NL50, not multitabling (to my knowledge, I was on 12 and he wasn't anywhere else), and definitely not a regular.

Given that c/f isn't an option what is your plan?

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

You only have a pot size stack left. I believe you fold out his weaker hands that you beat if you push now. I CRAI. There are other lines as well obviously.

If he cks behind, value bet the river.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

I kind of like a small lead on the turn. That way you can get some extra value from underpairs while still having a good chance of stacking him on turn or river when he has AJ.

A c/r could work, but it might be difficult to gt his stack on river if/when he checks behind with AJ

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You only have a pot size stack left. I believe you fold out his weaker hands that you beat if you push now. I CRAI. There are other lines as well obviously.

If he cks behind, value bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this would be a good line if we knew he was aggressive.

Basically, I'm willing to get the money in here, and if I'm beat, I'm beat. I'd like to get the majority in right now before a club comes and he folds the river(also charge him if he has clubs). So, I think I make a 1/2 pot bet or so, and drop the rest in on any river.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

c/r folds out all that you want to bring along, I lead.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]
c/r folds out all that you want to bring along, I lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think villain is folding once he bets the turn. Unless he minbets or something.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

Given we are committing to this hand I like lead 1/2 pot. If he has an A with less than Q kicker it is pretty likely he'll check behind

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given we are committing to this hand I like lead 1/2 pot. If he has an A with less than Q kicker it is pretty likely he'll check behind

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am leaning your way, KK,QQ probably reraise. This leaves AK and mid pairs that cant figure out set odds.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right and it is why i am not a big fan of this 3bet against a relative unknown.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right and it is why i am not a big fan of this 3bet against a relative unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but given the way the hand has played out, I think we are committed.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

I don't really think this is a hand you want to be playing hu oop. Its gonna be hard to get paid by worse on a lot of flops and I'll also have to c/f a lot.

This is how the hand played out.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($11.75)
MP2 ($11.25)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 ($46.45)</font>
CO ($168.55)
Button ($9.25)
SB ($49.50)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($56.45)</font>
UTG ($11.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9.5</font>, MP3 calls $9.50.

Turn: ($33.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: ($33.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12.

Final Pot: $57.75


My thoughts on the river was that checking puts my hand face up as (JJ-KK) even though its not and he should be vbetting all aces and bluffing missed flushes a lot. I planned on c/r the river (thoughts?), but something felt weird and I decided to call. If you prefer to lead the river let me know why please. If you would never c/r the river (pre-having some feeling) then also explain why.

Re: AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)
 

I play it as posted. I wouldn't c/r the river as worse aces probably didn't call the pf 3bet, and won't call here. Smaller pp would have a really tough time calling. And obviously you're not folding anything that beats you.