Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Villain is kind of between TAG and LAG, had been doing some stupid [censored] like opening 4X in LP and what not.

On the flop the only hand i can see him check calling that contains a jack is JJ, as i'm pretty sure AJdd would check shove a lot.

On river villain thought for a little bit, before firing out a bet that's either leaving room to fold or a value?

Thoughts on this?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t250/t500
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t12563
UTG+1: t11472
MP1: t24756
Hero: t14606
MP3: t12015
CO: t9056
Button: t3039
SB: t9046
BB: t11214

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t1250</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls t1250 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t2450)</font>, 5 folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t3700, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t2000</font>, UTG calls t2000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t5700)</font>.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t7700, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t7700, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets t3500</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero goes all in.

Does shoving&gt;calling here? If he's turning any other hand into a bluff here i don't think we can beat it given texture, and if he's thin value betting like a checked set or something calling is going to be a spew.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

How hard has he been firing at flops when he opens. Has he shown a tendency to fire his hits, and give up on his misses or does he know to pot control OOP etc. I could see villain having a QJish hand, and KJ if hes good, AJ if hes bad. If he is the type to open to 4x in LP then he could also peel flop with AJ and try to go for a crai on turn since it hit. That said you can't be repping many Js either, since I'd guess you would fire with AJ on turn had you get the flop with it as you did here with AQ. You could be repping JQ that took a free turn I guess, though I don't know how apt you would be to flat with that pre.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

In this spot would it be alright to fire again at the turn, say 6k or so with 2nd pair and gutterball? As played, his river bet kind of looks like one for value and I think it's just a call/fold situation

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

There's 4 jacks in the deck, and the probability of him having one is way too high for this bluff to be profitable.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

I think pushing&gt; calling but folding &gt; pushing

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

is he really betting the river without a J?

I like a turn bet much more.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's 4 jacks in the deck, and the probability of him having one is way too high for this bluff to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]


That's to broad and more or less, pointless a statement. What are the hands in his range that have a J? JJ/KJs? How often does he play KJs this way (both be it UTG raise and check call flop.)

I'm not saying this was necessarily an awesome play, but i'll need a better counter argument than that.

More relevant concerns are things like: Would he play QQ/KK/AA/AK this way? If so, is he calling on the river with those hands considering how much he has in? Is he ever turning a hand with SD value into a bluff here due to how scary the board has gotten?

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Bond did you see what I asked. I think a few points I raised help to work out his hand range and what he can show up with here.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

if he folds all sets and two piars then its good... if not then i don't like it. Im having a hard time with what his range is. He could have KJ or AJdd, or JJ or QJ. Its really hard to put him on a hand, i wouldnt shove here, but i dont hate it.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Mench,

Good questions. I hadn't seen the villain engaged in any spots post, mostly his silly 4X LP raises discouraged action or, got him shoved on pre and he folded.

It's quite possible that you can figure out i can't have many J's either, but that would require villain not only putting that together, but then being able to figure i'm willing to turn my hand into an AI bluff here, and then work up the balls to call on a set/two pair having added it all up.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Additionally,

I don't mean for my defense of the hand to sound like i think i played it well or it was some great idea/play.

I think the big issue in this hand isn't necessarily villains liklihood of having a J, but whether he folds two pairs/sets, and the fact that i'm not sure we're quite deep enough for it.

I probably wouldn't have thought of trying something along this line until i read this great article by Nath:

http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACT...mp;USER_ID=203

Inevitably, when you try to work something new into your game, you may make technical/execution mistakes. I this this might have been one, but is still a good discussion hand.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Lets assume he plays somewhat good

He has 25BBs and is UTG. What hands with a J is he raising? AJ, JJ.

Is he c/c'ing AJ on this flop? meh, maybe? JJ? possibly?


The only hand that makes sense for him is AdJd? And even that is really strange for him to c/c flop.

I don't hate the river shove tbh

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

oops, wrong thread

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally,

I don't mean for my defense of the hand to sound like i think i played it well or it was some great idea/play.

I think the big issue in this hand isn't necessarily villains liklihood of having a J, but whether he folds two pairs/sets, and the fact that i'm not sure we're quite deep enough for it.

I probably wouldn't have thought of trying something along this line until i read this great article by Nath:

http://www.tworags.com/index.php?ACT...mp;USER_ID=203

Inevitably, when you try to work something new into your game, you may make technical/execution mistakes. I this this might have been one, but is still a good discussion hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What two pair hands is he likely to have, considering he raised utg and checked a K high flop? He bets KQ on the flop, no?

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

I think you might be underestimating the times villain shows up w/ JTs/QJs/KJs.

I think this is marginal @ best, since I'm not sure he value bets two pair/set that often.

I would fold.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Both of you played the hand like you have a J, except only one of you actually has it :-O.

Barry

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Bond,
Why don't you mention JTs in his range here? Maybe he was floating you OOP on the flop and he backdoored a hand here?

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Absolutely the villain will fold 2 pair or a set sometimes, especially if he is a bad player. When he does fold a better hand, you gain 11200 chips over just calling. If he calls your push with a better hand, then you lose 5800 chips. So I think it is quite likely that this push is profitable.

Here are the 4 situations:

1. You push, he has a worse hand, he calls: Will almost never happen.

2 You push, he has a worse hand, he folds. You have the same number of chips as if you had just called.

3. You push, he has a better hand, he folds:
You've made a huge stride towards the final table. Your stack is workable, and you are no longer in push/fold territory.

4. You push, he has a better hand, he calls: You are basically gone, whereas if you had just called, Your M is less than 7.

#3 is your profit -- it's huge. Your M is over 18.
#4 is your loss -- you could have saved your 7M if you had just called.

Looks like a good push to me.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Tony,
As I said kind of incoherently last time, I think you got caught up in the fact that a J was unlikely and neglected to think about the fact that everything else is way less likely.

Every hand except QQ that he'd play this way was played oddly, and if he does choose to play KK/KQ or something like this, it's not clear he's folding them to a shove anyway.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

shoving&gt;calling but i'd fold. i agree with mike the guy has a jack more than u are giving him credit for.

Re: Tilt 1k, Turn pair into bluff?
 

Bond,
I like a turn shove better here.