10/20 NL 6handed
 

UTG raises to 80, I cold call with 33 on the button (I have 1800, he has me covered.) Rest folds

Flop is 4 4 4 and he bets 150. Plan for the hand?

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

no read? any sort of UTG PFR range? i've seen some live players limp AK and AQ so if he's that kind of guy it might weight his range towards a bigger PP.

does villain c-bet UI overs here? online i would assume the average opponent does, but i'm not sure about live. also, what does he think about you?

folding can't be too bad. even if we call(which i don't like unless we're against a certain type of player that will fire a barrell on the flop and then shut down) or make an aggressive raise(if called) when the turn comes we often won't have a clue where we stand. the way i've been running another 4 will probably turn and his 56o will take it down. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

without a read, i'm probably giving up.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

Villain is aggro, and openraises quite a wide range. On this kind of board he'll c-bet a lot. (was online btw)

Haven't been too long at the table and didn't know him, so don't think he had much of a line on me.

My problem is that I'm almost sure I'm ahead of his range. But OTOH my hand could be quite transparent if I continue with this hand, and he could probably push me off it,or extract max value from me with a better hand (if I continue with the hand, it must smell like a medium pp,no?)

So, just fold although we're quite sure to be ahead of his range?

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

Fold, call and reraise can all be right here preflop, it´s close imo.

I think I just fold the flop if I dont have a read on his turnplay, it´s hard to rep a hand here without history.
You beat his range, but it isn´t static throughout the hand as much as in limit and it´s a ton more expensive to call down compared to the flop potsize.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is aggro, and openraises quite a wide range. On this kind of board he'll c-bet a lot. (was online btw)


[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I would be tempted to put in a smallish raise, say to $380, and fold to any further action.

It turns your hand into a bluff, but it sounds like you have plenty of fold equity against his wide opening range on this board. And if he calls you just to hit 6 outs, you never know, you might even get to showdown a winner.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

it sounds like it is pretty safe to say you're ahead of his range. problem is you are either going to win a little bit or lose alot. in limit we would take villain to valuetown, but here we are basically bluffing and really exposing ourself to getting owned. given our hand, the stacks and our position we have alot of options to this point on both streets. without a read i'm not getting too excited about exploring any but the more conservative ones.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

I think you gotta call this flop, being in position and all. The goal here is to neuter him by repping quads (you would flat call here with 45s, no?). I'd probably fold if he continues on the turn, but continue the quads repping by making a bet on the turn that will lead him to believe you might just be planning to push the river. If you call the $150 on the flop and bet $400 on the turn (leaving him looking at you with $1170 to bet into a $1110 pot on the river if decides to call), overcards certainly ain't about to get funky with you, and even hands like 55 and 66 shrivel up. I'd be inclined to check the river if he calls the turn, but I could be persuaded to push the river as a bluff for any number of feel-related reasons.

Also, it's ok to raise the turn as a bluff if he bets. I'd just like to point this out. Josh wrote something very early on in this forum: don't be afraid to bluff off your entire stack. He meant times like this.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

I hope you are kidding, this is a really bad board to bluff your whole stack as you rep exactly one very unlikely hand.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

gonores--no way I bluff off my stack here with 33. Ever heard of Zeebo's theorem? No one folds a full house ever. Villain is *never* folding QQ-AA, and rarely folding 88-JJ. Preflop call indicates a drawing hand like small pair or connectors. Flop changes nothing--if villain was ahead before, he still is. He knows this. Yeah, maybe you'll occasionally smooth call with a big hand, but this is rare. Against very aggressive opener, raise the flop, shut down to further action. Or call flop, fold turn if he 2nd barrels, otherwise bet. Never bluff off your whole stack here.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

Cmon... Simple game theory dictates you should be bluffing in that spot from time to time. Not saying you should bluff all the time, but what hands in your range are you raising the turn with? It seems like you're only raising quads or quads. I'd think that is problematic

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

Actually, game theory dictates that when your opponent's folding frequency is 0%, your bluffing frequency should be 0% as well. It's probably not that extreme here, but I guarantee you villain is never folding a big overpair here in fear of quads, and only rarely folding a medium overpair.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

these stakes are way above my head, but I think bluffing here is pretty stupid unless you have a great read on your opponent and his tendencies. things liek zeebo theorem (hes not gonna fold big pairs cuz u rep quads, and hes not gonna put u on a big pairs cuz u didnt 3 bet pre) and not running bluffs at players who could stack off light seem to make this a pretty straight up peel or fold spot.

Personally here im not sure, I think preflop is a call after the flop I dont think your doing well enough against his range of hands that raises utg and then dont hit the six outter enough to justify a peel of 150 to win 310. I dont think we will be winning that often on the river, altho i havent run any simulations. Im also assuming when he checks the turn we ck behind cuz betting to protect vs six outters wont be worth the investment with how often hes ck calling for pot control with mid pairs.

Also running an advanced multi street bluff in this once raised and c bet pot doesnt seem worth it at all, strictly from a math standpoint Im skeptical of the success to investment ratio to make it +EV

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

In theory one could raise as much as his c-bet and hand range allows, considering the big stacks and that one has not enough of a line of what happens if one just calls.

I think they should know something about what to do in the NL mid forum.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

I think the idea of bluffing is crazy here. I'm completely happy to be raising only honestly in these situations.

I'd only continue with this hand if i felt he wasn't great and i had a good read on his play and would be able to out guess him in the guessing game of the next two streets. Against good players i'm happy to just give it up on the flop even though i'm ahead mostly.

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

Call flop and possibly call turn. If river is a nice bluffcard for him, and he's the type to fire 3 barrels here, then maybe call river but vs most aggro regs I'd be just calling two barrels.

Raising flop is flushing EV into the toilet unless your idea is to get him to bluff 3bet shove over you...

Re: 10/20 NL 6handed
 

bluffing here is horrible you cant rep anything. if he folds its bc u were most likely ahead anyway.