I\'m bored
 

The decreased traffic in this forum makes me a little sad. So here's a standard hand where I value bet preflop, on the flop, and on turn with Ace-high then fold top pair on the river.

Villain is a about a 50 VPIP and played pretty passively.

Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">BB raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.00 BB

Re: I\'m bored
 

Looks good. Your kicker is no good, his flush came in, or he called with 4x, 77 or 66.

Re: I\'m bored
 

Why was this a b/f instead of a b/c? Couldn't BB put you on a PP and raise when his A gets there? What stakes were these? The lower the stakes, the more likely I would be to call this.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why was this a b/f instead of a b/c? Couldn't BB put you on a PP and raise when his A gets there? What stakes were these? The lower the stakes, the more likely I would be to call this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
you assume this guy has a brain?

Re: I\'m bored
 

I don't like this fold at all. You don't think that villian is either raising for value with a worse ace or bluffing the ace/flush once in six?

I like the rest of the hand though.

Btw, I don't necessarially think decreased traffic is a bad thing. Look at how chaotic the busy NL forums are. Some posts only get one or two replies. Others don't get any replies from anbody with more than 200 posts. Atleast here basically every thread will get multiplay replies from people who know their stuff and we regularly have some very good discussions.

Re: I\'m bored
 

The decreased traffic in this forum makes me a little sad.

We're all busto! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m bored
 

For me, 2-5 hand postings a day would be ideal, then I would be able to study each one more thoroughly and in detail. Quality, not quantity. Like the Clerkmeister -post. If we had ONE of those a day and nothing else, I would be a happy man and had some time to play poker too on the side.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, I don't necessarially think decreased traffic is a bad thing. Look at how chaotic the busy NL forums are.

[/ QUOTE ]
To continue the hijack: I greatly prefer lurking/posting in the limit forums compared to the NL forums. Many posts in uNL and increasingly in SSNL get a one-line answer from somebody who didn't read the text and read the action wrong. The advice in limit is far and far better and there are a lot of posters I greatly respect, and they post/comment also in the micros.

It's just that NL is far more profitable (I play 100NL but I don't know if I can beat 2/4).

Re: I\'m bored
 

I'd want to get to showdown with this, so why bet the river if you're going to fold to a raise. How about check-call?

The way you played it, I'd still call. If he had 77 or 66 he would have raised earlier. If he really is passive then he's woken up with something. Most likely holding is Ax or flush. You're getting 8 to 1 on the call which must be good enough even if you completely discount a bluff.

You could also be creating an image problem if you fold in these spots.

Re: I\'m bored
 

Since we didn't get an earlier raise that would signal trips I have to think villain is often playing Ax here. Since he's 50 VPIP it could be any x. Your ten kicker might not be good against a tighter villain often enough but might be against this guy. I think we have to call this river raise thinking we win this more than one in seven.

Of course there are a few who wait til the river to raise HU but still I think we win often enough.

Re: I\'m bored
 

Perfect to the river then hate it. Villain in BB called back 1 bet PF, that’s a wide range of any two cards.

Yes, river does bring the 3-flush out, but it also brings an overcard. As you bet a dry flop and turn, villain may well be reading you with nothing to a small pair, and the river giving him top pair/no kicker.

River is a check/call for me: I hate the card but I made my hand and I want to see SD.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why was this a b/f instead of a b/c? Couldn't BB put you on a PP and raise when his A gets there? What stakes were these? The lower the stakes, the more likely I would be to call this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
you assume this guy has a brain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why fold?

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is a about a 50 VPIP and played pretty passively.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this read developed enough to lay it down on the river?

Doesn't the river take a large portion of his FD range out of the equation?

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Range?

Re: I\'m bored
 

You need a pretty good read here to fold, and with that good of a read it's probably not worth posting the hand as the right play is obvious.

If all I had to go on was the info you gave, I wouldn't fold the river. Better aces often 3 bet PF, even passive players will often put a raise in on a previous street with a FD. Lastly, if he's even slightly aware he should realize ranges are alot wider in a BVB confrontation, although he's probably not thinking in those terms.

Re: I\'m bored
 

Stakes are $1/2 6-max and my read was weakly supported by some PT numbers: 47/7/0.78 after 55 hands.

This is a spot where I think bet-call cannot possibly be right. I think your options are bet-fold and check-call, but check-call against a passive player tends to be bad because you just allow yourself to be value bet to busto.

Re: I\'m bored
 

I think this is very very standard against a passive player.

Re: I\'m bored
 

I think c/c is really close. Even a bad passive players bluff and this is such an obvious bluff card.

Re: I\'m bored
 

why do we b/f this river as opposed to c/c. yeah out ace hits but why would we ever think of folding it. i dont know if this is standard or not i know the ace is scarry but he could be raising a weaker ace or bluffing the flush.

although i look back and u say he plays passively. in that case i think we can make an argument for c/c the river because the draw came in but thats just how i play it and im a donktard

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a spot where I think bet-call cannot possibly be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree except that you have no read and you're playing a game where stupid, senseless aggression is the norm. You've gotta call this river.

Re: I\'m bored
 

For those who think bet-calling is right, let's try get some hand ranges and raising frequencies sorted out.

1) What do you think the hand range is preflop?
2) What is it reduced to when he calls the turn?
3) What hands do you think he's willing to raise on the river?

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
For those who think bet-calling is right, let's try get some hand ranges and raising frequencies sorted out.

1) What do you think the hand range is preflop?
2) What is it reduced to when he calls the turn?
3) What hands do you think he's willing to raise on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that once we whittle down this range we can make an argument for c/c on the river. its obvious he might be calling with a FD, trips or even a boat. i thought when reading through this hand out ace is only good on the river a small amount of the time.

but i think we get more value by c/c.....

hmmm....maybe not now that i think about it because he will not bet worse hands that he will call with. yeah im changing my input and i think this river in general b/f is the best line. he will call with weaker hands, call with a lot of hands that beat us and raise only hands that we are WB.

yeah i believe b/f is the correct line despite my previous argument for c/c because our opponent is loose and passive

Re: I\'m bored
 

I'm backing Aaron on this one and not because his brain is bigger than mine.

While we do have top pair, villain's hand range, coupled with his aggression facter, coupled with the pot size and the board coordination make for a fold here. It's not an easy fold, though.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stakes are $1/2 6-max and my read was weakly supported by some PT numbers: 47/7/0.78 after 55 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

How really passive is he? Sure his PFR of 7 playing 6max is redonkulous as is his 47 VPIP.

But his .78 AF is NOT THAT passive. He is playing 65-75% more hands than what we consider "optimal" at 6 max. This means he is playing fewer hands in which to drive the action with and probably ends up peeling with flopped weak draws to much as well as this is what real loose people like to do [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

If you were to normalize his AF, it would look far more aggro.

I meant to respond to this post last night, but for whatever reason didn't. I actually like a c/c line here. We give villian some rope to hang himself.

Again this is just a math problem. I haven't done the math, but I'm guessing it leans like so c/c&gt;b/c~b/f but don't quote me on that. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m bored
 

Preflop, flop, turn look super standard - passive players call more than they bluff/bet.

On the river we should note that A9, A8, A5, A3, A2 just "got there" and this is a heads-up blind battle (+ shorthanded to begin with?)
Do these weaker aces make up a large enough portion of his raising range? Has villain raised weakish rivered top pairs in similar situations or does he tend to just call?

Advocating for check/call:
If you check river, will he usually value bet a weaker ace or lower two pair?

Re: I\'m bored
 

Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is very very standard against a passive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I\'m bored
 

Just as a note I think there is some bias from Vils raise floating around in the thread. I think this would be a clear bet if action is cut before hero acts on the river so the discussion should be between b/c and b/f and I think we're good 1 in 8 for reasons discussed. This could very well be an overplayed Ax that just got there or a bluff.

People with a vpip of 50 likes to play a lot because playing is fun and they also like to bluff a lot in bad spots because... bluffing a TAG is fun.

If you call you have to be right 1 in 8. If you call and are only right 1 in 16 this is a 0.5 BB mistake. If you fold incorrectly 1 in 4 you have made an 4 BB mistake.

just my 2, hope I got the numbers rite.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wook - It's a value bet against all diamond flush draws and maybe even against hands that have two overcards to the board. It's a value/protection bet if he has a hand like QJ with one card to come.

Re: I\'m bored
 

I is approve of da heeros lines.
To all Aaron haters:

(1) Open PokerTracker
(2) Filter on loose passive players. Say, 35/2.0/0.7 or worse
(3) Filter on all the hands where they raised or check-raised the river.
(4) See how many times TPNK would hold up.
(5) Report back the results.

Aaron, ship this to your villain:

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/3...hnomorerh5.jpg

Re: I\'m bored
 

Folding the river because of villian's AF is bad because our sample size is way too small. AF converges relatively fast but after 50 hands I wouldn't be surprised if this guys AF was really 0.25 or 2.

I'm certainly not suggesting that we disregard AF's completely when their accuracy is in doubt. Using it to help decide what to do in a very close decision is perfectly fine. But folding the river when you make toppair/goodkicker for one bet in a 8bb pot when the river was a scare card isn't even close to being close.

As to those who want to c/c the river I think overall its higher EV to bet. Let thinks about some of villian's possible hands:

If he has a 7 he is almost always calling a river bet but will often not bet himself.

If he has a 6 (straight or flush draw on flop) he is almost always calling a river bet but will rarely bet himself.

If he has a a pocket pair 88+ he is always always calling a river bet but may or may not bet himself.

The only hand that we beat that we would really want to check to is missed overcards. He may or may not bluff these but in general I would not expect a bluff.

Obviously if villian has a flush we don't want to put two bets in but really there isn't any reason to believe that he has one until he raises the river.

It's unlikely that villian has a bigger ace (even though A7 and A6 are certainly possible) because he only called preflop.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why was this a b/f instead of a b/c? Couldn't BB put you on a PP and raise when his A gets there? What stakes were these? The lower the stakes, the more likely I would be to call this.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
you assume this guy has a brain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

my comment was more for this poster and what he was thinking, not a comment on the hand

in general, players at this level (who tend towards passive) do not really think about what 'you' have ... even posters on this board don't think about what their opponents are calling with ... your opponents normally look at their hand and either get a hard on and raise (or slowplay their 'monster') or just passively call down with whatever crap they have because they haven't a clue what we hold.

and as for the comment ... 'The lower the stakes, the more likely I would be to call this'

his logic is backwards ... the higher the level generally indicated more 'advanced' opponents who no longer 'just look at their hand', and features many solid thinking players who can fold Queens, Kings and a not so solid ace and will be using a bet-fold line (especially on this river: ace+flush)

on the hand:
i'm surprise Aaron would include a 'read' that is actually based on limited stats ...
by stats he isn't exactly passive (unless Aaron saw a couple of spots that would indicate that villain just hit a couple of solid hands in this time frame to bump is AF up ... and also noticed other spots where villain called down with OK hands, as well as weak hands)

since this is only over 50 or so hands I can't see folding .. but if this guy is passive over a larger time frame I would aggree b/f or c/c (and c/c being crap because you let a passive opponent value bet his strong hands and check behind some random garbage that is small little brain would have called with)

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
on the hand:
i'm surprise Aaron would include a 'read' that is actually based on limited stats ...
by stats he isn't exactly passive (unless Aaron saw a couple of spots that would indicate that villain just hit a couple of solid hands in this time frame to bump is AF up ... and also noticed other spots where villain called down with OK hands, as well as weak hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

I presented the read and said it was weakly supported by the stats. I didn't really want to get into the details of the read (it was pretty late when I posted). But the general idea was that he was a player who saw lots of flops, didn't raise very much preflop or postflop.... he was a passive player.

But putting this aside for a moment, I think this situation is generally a bet-fold or check-call situation. I think you would need to find a player who has a very high bluff-raising/misplaced raising frequency before making a bet-call correct.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[quote I think you would need to find a player who has a very high bluff-raising/misplaced raising frequency before making a bet-call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is 'very high'?

B/f isn't great because you will fold to many winners. If you had a very good read on this guy and you were sure he wouldn't raise as a bluff or with a weaker hand that you beat then folding would be fine. But here it's just impossible for you to know that.

C/c isn't good because there are a ton of hands that villian will call a bet with that he won't bet himself that we beat.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
on the hand:
i'm surprise Aaron would include a 'read' that is actually based on limited stats ...
by stats he isn't exactly passive (unless Aaron saw a couple of spots that would indicate that villain just hit a couple of solid hands in this time frame to bump is AF up ... and also noticed other spots where villain called down with OK hands, as well as weak hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

I presented the read and said it was weakly supported by the stats. I didn't really want to get into the details of the read (it was pretty late when I posted). But the general idea was that he was a player who saw lots of flops, didn't raise very much preflop or postflop.... he was a passive player.

But putting this aside for a moment, I think this situation is generally a bet-fold or check-call situation. I think you would need to find a player who has a very high bluff-raising/misplaced raising frequency before making a bet-call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

i generally agree with you in this spot (I can't see what will raise that you beat. Nor am a thrilled about checking and calling ... normally these guys will just call with their crappy ace) ... i just can't fold to a relative unknown without at least a weak or lame showdown from him

Re: I\'m bored
 

WOW THESE POSTS TILT SCARY TIGER CALL THE RIVER FFS

Re: I\'m bored
 

shorthanded, bad opponent, top pair, good odds...

callcalcalcalcalclalcallalcall

Re: I\'m bored
 

"WOW THESE POSTS TILT SCARY TIGER CALL THE RIVER FFS"

they tilt me for another reason. simply that they don't matter as much as way more common spots and yet they always get the most responses. i know because i used to make pure "river fold" threads.

Re: I\'m bored
 

Will it make you feel better if I come back? This hand is standard for me. Most will say call because he could think the A high he was calling with is good here, but these guys call on the end when they hit.

Re: I\'m bored
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you would need to find a player who has a very high bluff-raising/misplaced raising frequency before making a bet-call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is 'very high'?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's for the math to show.

[ QUOTE ]
B/f isn't great because you will fold to many winners. If you had a very good read on this guy and you were sure he wouldn't raise as a bluff or with a weaker hand that you beat then folding would be fine. But here it's just impossible for you to know that.

C/c isn't good because there are a ton of hands that villian will call a bet with that he won't bet himself that we beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line just isn't very consistent. You think he's going to raise the river with lots of bad hands as a bluff or whatever, but you don't think he's going to bet if I check to him.

Re: I\'m bored
 

If you are going to fold to a raise on the river against this kind of player then I don't see the reason to bet the turn.

The only way I fold on the river with this hand is live with a read of the player but mathematically I don't see this fold as proofable.