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Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
I always thought about doing an "ask me about the weather" thread, as my undergrad degree is in meteorology, but since I never did anything with it other than go to law school, and since college was 20 years ago, I'd probably just embarrass myself.
That background is intended to explain why I subscribe to various weather services and that I have a slight inkling of what I am talking about (but not much). Anyway, one of the services to which I subscribe -- who is ridiculously accurate about this kind of thing -- is calling for the storm of the GA coast right now to develop into a hurricane, hit around Hatteras by Sunday morning, and track up the east coast to off Long Island. While this service has been talking about this possibility for a while, the models apparently are picking it up now. The European has a pretty significant storm centered off South Jersey on Monday morning, but it brings the thing inland somewhat which could knock the wind down. GFS has the storm far enough offshore to be a miss, but there is a trough heading into the NE at that time and it seems hard to believe that the storm wouldn't hook up with the trough and ride closer to the coast. The Canadian looks like a pretty strong storm (966 mb) hitting NC and then brings the storm right up the coast, but weakens it enough so that it is 987mb when it gets to where it would affect NJ and NY. When it gets over south Jersey it's at 989 with apparently a decent gradient, indicating decent wind speeds still. The service says that expectations are for a Cat. 2/3 hit but Cat. 4 cannot be ruled out yet. And the models are indicating that this storm could maintain substantial strength all the way to the mouth of the Delaware. Various hurricane experts have been saying that the cities are overdue for a hit. While this is not a catastrophic forecast by any means, it sounds like up to NYC a storm of tropical storm strength to potentially minimal hurricane strength is possible. Perhaps someone who's more up on this these days can add to this. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Man. If that does happen, and the storm runs up the coast, battery companies are gonna make a ton of money.
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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Anyway, one of the services to which I subscribe -- who is ridiculously accurate about this kind of thing -- is calling for the storm of the GA coast right now to develop into a hurricane, hit around Hatteras by Sunday morning, and track up the east coast to off Long Island. [/ QUOTE ] That's quite a bit for something that hasn't even been declared a tropical depression yet. May I ask what your source is specifically? I ask because this is all I get at NHC: [ QUOTE ] A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. [/ QUOTE ] Additionally, it was my impression that computer models often give conflicting information. Here they are, in case anyone else wants to take a look: Invest 99 |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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That's quite a bit for something that hasn't even been declared a tropical depression yet. May I ask what your source is specifically? [/ QUOTE ] The Accuweather professional site. If you have access to any of the models, you will see that they are pretty much in agreement that a hurricane is going to form and move up the East Coast. The NHC is notoriously slow in this regard, for reasons that are probably obvious (not alarming the public and not having the public disregard warnings should they miss a couple of times). The thing that I probably haven't conveyed well is that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather has been warning of this happening for more than a week. It's just today that the models are seeing it. Edit -- I can't post pictures from work. Perhaps when I get home tonight I'll see if I can post some of the pictures from the various models. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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If you have access to any of the models, you will see that they are pretty much in agreement that a hurricane is going to form and move up the East Coast. [/ QUOTE ] LBAR has it going straight off to sea and GFDL has it running parallel to land but not striking. Even those that predict development and landfall have it happening Saturday-Monday. I mean, I don't want to sound like I'm looking for an argument, because I'm not, but I think it's early yet to worry. I don't want a repeat of Gov. Blanco declaring a state of emergency for Louisiana for a hurricane that made landfall in Mexico, you know? |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
I'm posting this more for interest than worry. There is no reason to worry if you are in the big cities. It's not forecasted to be that kind of storm up here, but it looks like it will at least rival Ernesto of last year, which caused more damage than expected.
I will try to post images from the maps later tonight, assuming anyone other than you and I is interested in this. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
well uhh i'm supposed to be doing a lot of traveling this weekend (friend's wedding), so this will generate more worry than interest
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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well uhh i'm supposed to be doing a lot of traveling this weekend (friend's wedding), so this will generate more worry than interest [/ QUOTE ] I'm heading to the Outer Banks on Friday, guess it could be interesting |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Oh man we're having another barbecue this weekend. I hope this misses New Jersey.
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
I'll be in Ocean City, MD this weekend. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
[censored].
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Wavewatch model (showing winds over the water only)
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/6...ewatch2eh8.png http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7...ewatch4vu3.png |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
I don't know about anyone else, but the forecasters seem pretty clueless even when the damn thing becomes a hurricane. If you're hypothesizing even before it's a TS, then blahblahblahblah.
I admittedly may be very ignorant in this thinking. Your meteorology pics look nice. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
From all of those pictures I gather that no hurricanes will be hitting Illinois.
Good luck east coast. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
niss please post appropriate updates! I'm supposed to go fishing off Cape Cod on Saturday
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
whats the latest word on this?
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Will have more later after I see the afternoon model runs and read the comments of the forecaster. Right now here is one of the GFDL runs for 2 AM Monday. I read a very short commentary this morning that the model has landfall a little too far south. Looks like the storm might wait until after the weekend to make its appearance anywhere north of, say, Cape Hatteras.
http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/1...negfdl1af2.png |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Intrade has hurricane futures. You need to profit on this storm. This is one of the better forecasting sites : http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Remember, the intrade contracts are for Cat3+ at landfall. I would sell the contract at this time. https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tra...owExpired=false |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Yeah, I'd sell too, the different models are all predicting some development, but it ranges from weak tropical storm to category 2 hurricane. Sunday and Monday seem to be the preferred landfall dates, if that occurs.
Nothing too horrible, but yeah, now it really looks like the Carolinas are going to be plenty of rain and some good wind, too. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Here is a link to a good loop of the developing storm:
Sat pic of "Gabrielle" I will check model runs this afternoon and post if there's anything interesting. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Japanese model -- the gradient at the coast seems underdone:
http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/9...ejapan3fa0.png http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/7...ejapan2jf1.png |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Most recent Wavewatch model (showing wind speeds and directions)
Hitting the NC coast: http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/1...ewatch5bf9.png Carrying 50-60 knot winds up the coast to New Jersey http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/3...ewatch6ve6.png |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
This is pretty hilarious that you quote Accuwx (which is awful) and then quote models that are not programmed to be able to handle tropical storms.
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Sorry, I don't speak condescending retardation.
Give your credentials, explain why you call AccuWx "awful" (which is completely incorrect with regards to certain forecasters and hurricanes), and then maybe we can have an intelligent, non-condescending discussion. If you read the whole thread (assuming you can read), you'll see at the top that I explained that it's been 20 years since I've been involved in the field. I studied meteorology with a guy named Eric Hoffman. Please tell me you're not him. He was a good guy. Edit -- by the way, are you seriously contending that the Wavewatch model is not programmed to handle tropical storm forecasting? |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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Sorry, I don't speak condescending retardation. Give your credentials, explain why you call AccuWx "awful" (which is completely incorrect with regards to certain forecasters and hurricanes), and then maybe we can have an intelligent, non-condescending discussion. If you read the whole thread (assuming you can read), you'll see at the top that I explained that it's been 20 years since I've been involved in the field. I studied meteorology with a guy named Eric Hoffman. Please tell me you're not him. He was a good guy. Edit -- by the way, are you seriously contending that the Wavewatch model is not programmed to handle tropical storm forecasting? [/ QUOTE ] Oooo! Weatherman fight! Gogogogogo! And, does anyone have any insight why this isn't hitting the news yet? |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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Oooo! Weatherman fight! Gogogogogo! [/ QUOTE ] Am I the only one secretly hoping that one of them will use a trident? |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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And, does anyone have any insight why this isn't hitting the news yet? [/ QUOTE ] Probably because the effect on the big cities is very much up in the air. Most of the models though are showing a storm hitting either SC or NC and then moving north. |
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this is why I almost went into meteorology
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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[ QUOTE ] And, does anyone have any insight why this isn't hitting the news yet? [/ QUOTE ] Probably because the effect on the big cities is very much up in the air. Most of the models though are showing a storm hitting either SC or NC and then moving north. [/ QUOTE ] Just based on your choice of words here, I think that you very much missed the mark by not becoming a TV weatherman. I think you'd rule at witty anchor banter. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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And, does anyone have any insight why this isn't hitting the news yet? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing has formed yet. This thing is predicted to develop, but it isn't a tropical cyclone yet. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And, does anyone have any insight why this isn't hitting the news yet? [/ QUOTE ] Probably because the effect on the big cities is very much up in the air. Most of the models though are showing a storm hitting either SC or NC and then moving north. [/ QUOTE ] Just based on your choice of words here, I think that you very much missed the mark by not becoming a TV weatherman. I think you'd rule at witty anchor banter. [/ QUOTE ] I'm here til Thursday. Try the veal. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
niss,
I don't think there's anyone on earth who is taking this as seriously as you are. I just checked all the headlines on Drudge Report and there's nothing about this, so it can't be very important. Also, I remember what a weather geek I was as a kid in the early-mid 80s. I would watch The Weather Channel incessantly, even though a lot of it was the same crap over and over. What a weird thing for a kid to be interested in. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
Tuq,
I did the same as a kid. So did/do a lot of kids, I bet. |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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[ QUOTE ] Oooo! Weatherman fight! Gogogogogo! [/ QUOTE ] Am I the only one secretly hoping that one of them will use a trident? [/ QUOTE ] lol'ed |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
I knew a fat girl that loved the weather channel. God I hated her.
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Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
It looks like it won't be bad. They led off our local news with the story. I live about where I put the white dot, and they are estimating we'll only get about 0.1" of rain. But it could still change course or strengthen.
http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/4...fdl2nf5cs5.png |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
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WONT41 KNHC 071242 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
Re: Possible east coast hurricane this weekend
They should bypass the regular naming order and go with Hurricane Niss for this one based off of your obsession with the storm.
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