$400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Villain is "mylifeisabeat" and is 18/15/3.79 over a decent sample. Hes pretty aggro and 3-bets a lot.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$2/$4 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

<u>SB: $1,545.50</u>
BB: $514.30
UTG: $394.00
MP: $392.00
CO: $418.00
<u>Hero (BTN): $682.80</u>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, SB calls $14.00, BB folds

Flop: ($36) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $28.00</font>, Hero calls $28.00

Turn: ($92) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $66.00</font>, Hero calls $66.00

River: ($224) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in for $1,435.50</font>, Hero....1?!?!?


How is the hand played so far? What do I do on the river here? Its $573 for me to call. Thanks.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Fold, he bet way too big

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Looks like a 44 or 66 to me. Any one betting OOP so strong, I can't think of any thing other than trips on the flop.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Fold, looks like an overbet shove with a made hand trying to get paid. We beat nothing except missed diamonds.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

i call, [censored] him

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

lets say his legitimate hand range is {77, 76, 66, 44} there are 13 combinations of said hands.

lets say his bluffing range is {55, 98, Td9d, Td8d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, KdJd, KdTd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d}. i didnt include AdKd because you said he 3bet a lot, i also didnt include Qdx because i think his shoving range is FHs and bluffs. there are 33 combinations of bluffing hands.

even if you think he is only bluffing 50% of the time with his bluffing range it is a call. if you think he is bluffing way less it becomes a fold, but on a board like this i would definitely call.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Might want to readjust range to not include nut flush draws, we hold the Ad.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

fold - that flop absolutely nailed his range

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

And I can't really see why he would overbet the river on a move, $200 would accomplish the same thing if he thinks we;re capable of folding anything.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

I fold. Overbets tend to be the nutz in my experience.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

i put him on QQ and fold

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

oops, so 13 combinations of legitimate hands vs 29 combinations of missed draws.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

he doesnt have QQ, op said he 3bets often. also, top of our range blah blah (if you subscribe to that line of thought).

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

looking at it again, i def think he has QQ...

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

deep as they were if u 3bet QQ in this spot u are kinda lost as to post-flop play , flat calling like that controls pot size and u kinda know where u are in the hand which is with the best hand obv.. im a big fan of that play

and obviously on the river he's putting you on a 7 (A7, 76) or something good and obviously he wants you to call... it looks SO MUCH with QQ man... i dont think 66 does that so big overbet

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

throw it away. I've fallen for this trap so many times its sick.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

jfish, hes more likely to play a legtiamte hand like this then a bluff. Can't assume all the hands you wrote have equal probabilities of turning up.


oh, and lol @ him having QQ. he 3b like 99% of the time

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

FOLD

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

This is definitely a fold.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

if he is bluffing with 42% of his bluffing range the call becomes 0EV (somebody should check my math). on a board like this, given a line like his, i think his bluffing frequency is higher than 42 and a call is +EV.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

im pretty sure villain never has QQ here...
I think villains hand range is what jfish said it was but a little bit tighter (take out like J8dd, A8dd, etc...)

Also villain probably doesnt think we have set/76 because we're raising the flop with those a lot. I think villain puts us on 7x or 88+...its a good bluffing spot for him.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Villain puts us on 7x and it's a good bluffing spot for him?

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

yea, when 7x is small portion of our range.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

also SUPER basic question, but this is how you convert odds to % right? we are getting 1.4:1 on river, meaning we have to be good (1-[(1.4)/(1+(1.4)]) = 42%. right?

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

i do 1/[1.4+1] but that amounts to the same thing i think.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

jfish, I agree with your line of thought in this thread, but given his preflop stats and his cold call from the SB I think his range is weighted a lot more towards small PPs, so I don't think this is a draw turned into a bluff as often as you think it might be.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

yea hm you might be right. still a super narrow legitimate range for him. and we have the second strongest hand we can possibly have (after QQ). folding this seems exploitable.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

and we've shown zero strength, 99% of our range cannot call this. it seems like a poor valueshove if he does have a FH.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

my math sucks, 42% of his bluffing range is wrong.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

friend: yeah I dont think thats how you do it when talking about the percent he has to bluff with his bluffing range
me: yea i realize its wrong
friend: well that would be I guess
friend: the amount he has to be bluffing with his entire range
friend: so the amount is smaller for just his bluffing range
friend: sine that is a smaller part of his total range
friend: dont know how to do it
me: so ok
friend: I mean if we make it really simple
friend: let me think here
me: we have to have 42% equity
me: vs his river betting range
friend: with the combos and giving them the same probability
me: we have 0% equity vs his made hands
me: and 100% vs his bluffs
friend: its about 70% bluffs 30% valuebets
me: so he has to be bluffing 42%
me: isnt that right?
friend: yeah
friend: didnt think thats what you meant
me: it wasnt
me: im reasoning it backwards now
friend: I mean the amount of time he bluffs river given he is on air
friend: that is what you mean right?
me: so 42% of the time he has to have a bluff, meaning he has to have x/y = .42 where x = bluffing combos, y = legit hand combos + bluffing combos
me: legit hand combos = 13
friend: uh I think that looks better hmm
me: so1-( x/13+x)= .42
me: does that look right?
friend: hold on
friend: yeah I guess that looks right but I dont know if that solves the problem of hiss bluffing frequency
friend: let me think
friend: what is X in that
me: 1 - (x/(x+13)) = 0.42

-x/(x+13) = -0.58

x/(x+13) = 0.58
x = 0.58(x+13)
x = 0.58x + 7.54
0.42x = 7.54
x = 17.9 = 18
me: so if he is bluffing with 18/(29+18) combos its +ev
friend: that sounds more right
me: he has to be bluffing with 38% of his bluffing range

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

assuming 38% of his bluffing range is correct (i might still be doing it wrong), this seems like a very easy call, no?

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

i usually just give 3x pot bets like this the benefit of the doubt but this is just too taylor-made for him since op can't possibly be too big and a normal bet is asking to get called. plus EVERYTHING bricked off. i look him up

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

Fold. You were clearly worried or why else keep the pot so small?

Isn't this a bluff less than 42% of the time? My "FU 2" calls in this spot with AA invariably lose. I agree that our hand is completely disguised by the passive play (which I'm not to keen on BTW), but I still don't like villain's shove. What are we folding for $570 that we wouldn't fold for $350?

I think 78 and QQ need to be added to the list of legitimate hands here. If we add these hands and remove the Ad hands from the bluffs, the numbers don't look very good anymore.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

polayed ok becuz u dont wunna get shoved on the flop after raising... I'm pretty sure I fold I think he donked a set here or flopped striaght or somethin... no reason to risk it all w/ AA... and he knowsx u have overpair or somethin

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold - that flop absolutely nailed his range

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

folding here is so exploidable. call.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

im folding because from villians pov his overbet bluff would have to get you to fold the best hand more than 72% of the time to be profitable. Given that he knows his range looks polarised to us, making all our one pair hands the same, it seems unlikely that he can expect us to call less than 28% of the time, especially when perhaps 10% or more of our range is 7x.

Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
 

on 2nd thought [censored] him I call