UFC 75
 

Surprised a thread wasn't up for this yet.

Lines via Bodog:

Houston Alexander -185
Alessio Sakara +155

Quinton Jackson -140
Dan Henderson +110

Mirko Cro Cop -360
Cheick Kongo +280

Michael Bisping -225
Matt Hamill +185

Re: UFC 75
 

I think there's value in Hamil, Bisping hasn't done all that much and I think he's a product of the ufc promoting him

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's value in Hamil, Bisping hasn't done all that much and I think he's a product of the ufc promoting him

[/ QUOTE ]

I completly disagree but i would like to see further reasoning why i should not bet the Farm on Bisping. First of all is Bisping overrated? Maybe.

Is Hamill overrated? For sure that guy is an absolute one trick Pony. He has fought no one that matters even a bit. His greco roman and freestyle wrestling might be great but his hands are non existend. He quite training with Ortiz, and his camp looks really questionable. Beside that rumor has it that Ufc is not his biggest Priority since he is focusing on the olympics 2008. The only way he might get a win is in a lay and pray decision.

Bisping on the other Hand has a great Camp. Wolfslair Academy is by far the best regarding mma that europe has to offer. He prepared for his last two Ufc fights with Kazeka Muniz Gracie Barra Blackbelt and PanAm Champion. Bisping has a strong Kickboxing background. For the fight with Hamill he trained a decent amount of time at big bear with Rampage. Overall it is safe to say that he is the more well roundet Fighter. An aspect i would not want to overlook is that london is his hometurf he does not need to travel has the crowed behind him and his whole structure lined up.

I bought Bisping for 2 Units @ -225 wich i see as a great price.

Re: UFC 75
 

Anybody have anything to say about the Mirko Cro Cop -360
Cheick Kongo +280 line? Or will this just be an easy domination fight for Mirko? I don't know anything about Kongo, but then again I haven't looked.

Re: UFC 75
 

Although I haven't thought too much about it Kongo's main strength is striking, which obviously is Cro-Cop's forte. Kongo showed horrible ground skills in his last fight at UFC 70, so he doesn't really have any discernible advantage. I think the line is about right and imagine I'll be leaving it alone.

Re: UFC 75
 

.5u on sakara for me. Just think it's a tossup between thsoe two.

Re: UFC 75
 

best line out there, Kuniyoshi hironaka vs THiago Alves. Hironaka @ anything over +110 is money imo...line is +196 on pinnacle and was +200 on bodog...

Re: UFC 75
 

I think a small/meduim play on Kongo is right. Everybody expects CroCop to magically get his old form back, but there's a non-trivial chance he's just lost his drive/motivation/he sucks now.

Plus, Kongo is a fierce, good striker. The fight will be standing the whole time, and CroCop might have an advantage, but not a huge one. Kongo is a terrific, world class striker. I think there is solid value in for Kongo because he is a HUUUUUUGE dog according to this line. I'll try to find some links, but this fight will be essentially a kickboxing match, and Kongo is a very very good kickboxer.

Re: UFC 75
 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw4Wi8YxqIk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLFPi...ed&search=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrpqT...ed&search=

Yeah i'm absolutely convinced Kongo is value all day easily. Unless CroCop suddenly wants to take people down, this is easily the best line on the card.

Re: UFC 75
 

I heard CroCop was retiring after his contract expires.

Re: UFC 75
 

Houston is going to demolish Sakara, fwiw. Absolutely demolish.

Re: UFC 75
 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZkBqIXQNiY

http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance...wellisch_sport

http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/sea...ufc61tok1_sport

I really don't see either fighter trying to take this to the ground. And assuming this is just muay thai essentially, kongo looks very very good right now.

Re: UFC 75
 

DO,

If Kongo pulls out a victory, do you see him KOing Cro Cop or going to a decision?

EDIT: "And assuming this is just muay thai essentially, kongo looks very very good right now."

What are you referring to with this?

Re: UFC 75
 

Going back to Bisping/Hamill, Hamill's in a really rough fight here. He doesn't have enough punching power to do anything on his feet, nor does he seem to have any sort of dangerous ground and pound. Combined with Bisping having a pretty good ability to get off his back, Hamill looks like he will be dominated in this fight.

Re: UFC 75
 

I agree with DannyO, Kongo is +EV at this time in Cro Cop's career. Should be a standup war with both guys taking punishment and I will take the dog at +280 all day.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
Houston is going to demolish Sakara, fwiw. Absolutely demolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate on this? Everything I'm reading/watching is saying the opposite and pointing out how very sloppy and unpolished Houston is.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
Houston is going to demolish Sakara, fwiw. Absolutely demolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like a 4u play on Houston...I've yet to pull hte trigger on sakara and now I'm considering no play unless you care to convince me otherwise.

Re: UFC 75
 

dan henderson is gonna own quinton jackson so hard

i got 50 on him at +110

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate on this? Everything I'm reading/watching is saying the opposite and pointing out how very sloppy and unpolished Houston is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will elaborate... at some point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Big question here: What does everyone else base this assessment of Houston on? the twenty seconds of footage they have from the Jardine fight? Anyone using that to try to make an evaluation of the fighter is operating at a serious disadvantage.

I've spent some significant time in his gym on multiple visits in the past three months. I know who he's training with, how, and what.

Houston is much more polished and much more advanced than anyone gives him credit for. He's still got a ways to go before he's ready to face the upper eschelon of 205, but he's going to absolutely demolish someone second (or third) tier like Sakara.

He's got insane conditioning, tremendous power, and a

All that being said (and more to come) I've been getting murdered the last few UFCs, so might be better to fade me than listen [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-P

Re: UFC 75
 

When/where are you going to post your fullcard write up perfomify?

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
When/where are you going to post your fullcard write up perfomify?

[/ QUOTE ]

He always posts it on Ufcjunkie.com...usually day before.

What's interesting is it seems a lot of money has landed on sakara in the past day and a half... He moved from +160 to +135 on betcris...and it wasn't me.

Re: UFC 75
 

Kongo is an absolute stiff..who gasses early
Cro Cop has to win this fight to get the big payday against
Randy...
Hamil is overated...even as a wrestler...he was a Division III champ not a Division I...take Bisping..a better athlete..with more weapons...If Henderson cannot take Quinton down..then he is gonna get ktfo...Quinton has a
huge size advantage...yes he fought poorly against Lindland but..that fight meant absolutly nothing

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
DO,

If Kongo pulls out a victory, do you see him KOing Cro Cop or going to a decision?

EDIT: "And assuming this is just muay thai essentially, kongo looks very very good right now."

What are you referring to with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

When I say that it's essentially muay thai, I mean that neither fighter is going to go for takedowns. It's a standup war, a muay thai fight.

If Kongo pulls out a victory, it could be a KO or a decision. Despite what idiot fanboys will tell you, CroCop can be outstruck. Fedor did it, and if anybody in the UFC could do it, it'd be Kongo. Kongo may be the most one-dimensional HW in the UFC, but it's not like CC is gonna shoot for the takedown. Kongo is a scary striker. Watch a few of those vids.

I think +280 is ridiculous to be quite honest.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kongo is an absolute stiff..who gasses early


[/ QUOTE ]

What's your basis for this?

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DO,

If Kongo pulls out a victory, do you see him KOing Cro Cop or going to a decision?

EDIT: "And assuming this is just muay thai essentially, kongo looks very very good right now."

What are you referring to with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

When I say that it's essentially muay thai, I mean that neither fighter is going to go for takedowns. It's a standup war, a muay thai fight.

If Kongo pulls out a victory, it could be a KO or a decision. Despite what idiot fanboys will tell you, CroCop can be outstruck. Fedor did it, and if anybody in the UFC could do it, it'd be Kongo. Kongo may be the most one-dimensional HW in the UFC, but it's not like CC is gonna shoot for the takedown. Kongo is a scary striker. Watch a few of those vids.

I think +280 is ridiculous to be quite honest.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that simple, Many people can outstrike CC in mma...that's true. But the point is...people don't generally outstrike crocop in striking...here's the difference. Vs Fedor and GG crocop has to worry about being taken down when he's striking with them, vs Kongo he will not be. While I don't give this win to CC 90% of the time, I do feel that crocop has all the advantages in this fight except for reach. He seems to have much better footwork and much more explosion based strikes. I'm not gonna put any serious money on CC, but i have a hard time seeing kongo win. Hard enough that I'm not betting anything even if Kongo goes to +300.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kongo is an absolute stiff..who gasses early
Cro Cop has to win this fight to get the big payday against
Randy...
Hamil is overated...even as a wrestler...he was a Division III champ not a Division I...take Bisping..a better athlete..with more weapons...If Henderson cannot take Quinton down..then he is gonna get ktfo...Quinton has a
huge size advantage...yes he fought poorly against Lindland but..that fight meant absolutly nothing

[/ QUOTE ]

That fight to me, solidified that Rampage is the favorite. The fact that rampage is able to negate gr wrestling techniques and bjj techniques due to sheer strength is scary...then add in his slightly more technical boxing and absolutely IRON chin and it's hard to see Dan winning. Not that it's a lot by any means...simple repeated GnP would definitely win henderson the fight, i just see rampage doing the damage more often. Plus I see rampage being able to take more damage without problem.

Re: UFC 75
 

DO,

I've watched most of those fights. I would like to see the fight with Carmelo Marrero, but I can't find it anywhere. The only fight he's had with any sort of tough competition was against Yvel. He gassed (like someone else mentioned) and lost.

igetbadbeat brought up a good point. Fedor outstruck Cro Cop because he had Mirko worrying about other dynamics in the fight. You keep bringing up that this fight isn't going to the ground like that only help Cheick when it helps Mirko just as much, if not more.

I think there's still some value in Kongo at +280, but I don't think it's as ridiculous a line as you think.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate on this? Everything I'm reading/watching is saying the opposite and pointing out how very sloppy and unpolished Houston is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will elaborate... at some point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Big question here: What does everyone else base this assessment of Houston on? the twenty seconds of footage they have from the Jardine fight? Anyone using that to try to make an evaluation of the fighter is operating at a serious disadvantage.

I've spent some significant time in his gym on multiple visits in the past three months. I know who he's training with, how, and what.

Houston is much more polished and much more advanced than anyone gives him credit for. He's still got a ways to go before he's ready to face the upper eschelon of 205, but he's going to absolutely demolish someone second (or third) tier like Sakara.

He's got insane conditioning, tremendous power, and a

All that being said (and more to come) I've been getting murdered the last few UFCs, so might be better to fade me than listen [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what I've seen, I would predict the fight to go much like McFedries vs Sakara. I don't know what happened for mcfedries to win that fight, but I think Sakara would win more often.

Vs Jardine, all I saw was a street brawler with good punching power. Any fighter who slips consequently making jardine think he's hurt and come in foolishly can land heavy shots to win. I guess you've pointed out that since i don' tknow enough about Alexander, maybe I shouldn't put any money on him or against him, but I thought .5u against @ +160 woulda been decent. Your inside knowledge owuld make things completely different so you can't fault our analyzing skills for something that's just not available to us.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
DO,

I've watched most of those fights. I would like to see the fight with Carmelo Marrero, but I can't find it anywhere. The only fight he's had with any sort of tough competition was against Yvel. He gassed (like someone else mentioned) and lost.

igetbadbeat brought up a good point. Fedor outstruck Cro Cop because he had Mirko worrying about other dynamics in the fight. You keep bringing up that this fight isn't going to the ground like that only help Cheick when it helps Mirko just as much, if not more.

I think there's still some value in Kongo at +280, but I don't think it's as ridiculous a line as you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fight vs Marrera won't give u any info on Kongo other than the fact that Mirko should consider just taking him down and not standing with him. I made a killing off that fight but it still hurt to watch because it's just marrera LnPing and cheick's TD defense looks so horrible...it's almost not fathomable.

Re: UFC 75
 

I know it doesn't really offer anything in terms of the fight with Mirko, but it's his only fight that went three rounds. Would like to see how his cardio looked.

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think there's value in Hamil, Bisping hasn't done all that much and I think he's a product of the ufc promoting him

[/ QUOTE ]

I completly disagree but i would like to see further reasoning why i should not bet the Farm on Bisping. First of all is Bisping overrated? Maybe.

Is Hamill overrated? For sure that guy is an absolute one trick Pony. He has fought no one that matters even a bit. His greco roman and freestyle wrestling might be great but his hands are non existend. He quite training with Ortiz, and his camp looks really questionable. Beside that rumor has it that Ufc is not his biggest Priority since he is focusing on the olympics 2008. The only way he might get a win is in a lay and pray decision.

Bisping on the other Hand has a great Camp. Wolfslair Academy is by far the best regarding mma that europe has to offer. He prepared for his last two Ufc fights with Kazeka Muniz Gracie Barra Blackbelt and PanAm Champion. Bisping has a strong Kickboxing background. For the fight with Hamill he trained a decent amount of time at big bear with Rampage. Overall it is safe to say that he is the more well roundet Fighter. An aspect i would not want to overlook is that london is his hometurf he does not need to travel has the crowed behind him and his whole structure lined up.

I bought Bisping for 2 Units @ -225 wich i see as a great price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't really think Bisping has been tested in takedown defense to the extent thst Hamill could test him. I wasn't aware that the fight wasn't his full motivation, that does give me pause, can Bisping do damage off his back? He seemed to be taken down with moderate effort in his last fights. I don't think a lay and pray is out of the question

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]

Vs Jardine, all I saw was a street brawler with good punching power. Any fighter who slips consequently making jardine think he's hurt and come in foolishly can land heavy shots to win. I guess you've pointed out that since i don' tknow enough about Alexander, maybe I shouldn't put any money on him or against him, but I thought .5u against @ +160 woulda been decent. Your inside knowledge owuld make things completely different so you can't fault our analyzing skills for something that's just not available to us.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not faulting you for anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm just saying, people are making huge assumptions on Houston's abilities based on 48 seconds of fighting, in which Jardine throws one punch and Houston a bunch.

Labeling him a "street brawler" is a real stretch imo. You just don't have enough available information to make a determination on Houston except to say:

1) He can take a Keith Jardine punch to the chin
2) He is quick
3) He is powerful
4) He is aggressive

I just rewatched that fight, fresh, to be able to describe.

Houston comes out, tries a leg kick, Jardine steps inside and clips him with a left. Houston is on one leg when he gets hit, he gets knocked over -- maybe knocked down. Houston immediately gets up and puts Jardine in the clinch. He does NOT catch Jardine coming in -- Houston stands up, gets in the clinch, pushes Jardine against the cage. its a full five seconds before Houston throws his first punch after he gets Jardine in the clinch. Its definitely NOT something that happens because Jardine rushes in after he drops Houston.

I'm not saying Sakara may be a good bet based on your information. That's your call. But I'm just counciling that I think a vast majority of people, including a couple MMA sharps I know, are dramatically overestimating their ability to judge Houston based on 30 seconds of a fight.

I think there's sharp money moving on Sakara with people thinking his boxing background and experience give him a better edge than expected against what people see as an undisciplined street brawler. I agree with you, I think a lot of people are saying that Sakara has a great chance here and its driving some money on him.

I just think you've should consider that Houston has way more experience than most give him credit for (admittedly smaller stage, smaller fights, but its still experience), and is much more well rounded of a fighter than most give him credit for, especially those labeling him a street brawler or etc based on the beating he put on Jardine.

He's been training jits with NAGA hall-of-famer and the so-called "Guru of Grappling" Bob Schirmer and wrestling with a top Nebraska wrestling coach and several all-american NE wrestlers. He's got amazing conditioning, explosiveness, and power, and trains with Muay Thai champions including a former world champion and not one but two US champions.

Outside of the handicapping perspective, I'm curious to see where Houston goes from here. Assuming he does blow by Sakara like he's standing still, who at 205 do they put him in with? Might be an interesting matchup for someone with a ground game, to see him tested on the ground. Thiago Silva, maybe?



(edited after re-watching the fight)

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw4Wi8YxqIk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLFPi...ed&search=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrpqT...ed&search=

Yeah i'm absolutely convinced Kongo is value all day easily. Unless CroCop suddenly wants to take people down, this is easily the best line on the card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wouldn't be shocked to see CroCop take Kongo down from the clinch and use some GnP. He's used GnP before when he's already had someone hurt, but given Kongo's crappy ground game he may look to work some of that in earlier. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but I wouldn't be as confident as you are that this fight is staying on the feet.

Re: UFC 75
 

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I know it doesn't really offer anything in terms of the fight with Mirko, but it's his only fight that went three rounds. Would like to see how his cardio looked.

[/ QUOTE ]

His last fight went 3 rounds, it was with Asseurio Silva.

Goodsamaritan,

Frankly, i think CC is too prideful to take down Kongo. It would be admitting that he's a bit scared. I just don't see it happening, maybe like 5% or less of the time i would guess. Not counting if he hurts him badly and GnP's, but an actual takedown attempt.

Re: UFC 75
 

In the Gonzaga fight Cro Cop was taken down early and ate a lot of elbows. The ref stands it up and he gets knocked the [censored] out...nobody's unbeatable, i.e Serra vs GSP. I think Cro Cop wins more than he loses to Gonzaga.

I think everyone agrees Kongo isnt taking Cro Cop down, but I wouldnt be suprised if Cro Cop took Kongo down.

prediction: Cro Cop - Kongo ends just like this fight:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdp...anderlei-silva

Edit to add let's not forget that Mirko went the distance with Fedor which few have done. One of the few others was Nogueira who also beat Cro Cop. This Kongo guy's getting destroyed!

Re: UFC 75
 

DO,

I don't know how I forgot that. Weird.

Re: UFC 75
 

Perf: What are Houston's ground skills and TDs like? Its a start that he trains with good people, but CroCop trained with Verdum for awhile, and CroCop still isn't someone you need to be scarred of submitting you if you know what I mean.

I have a bet on Sakara at +160. Main reasons for it was I assumed hype was behind Houstons odds as is often the case with a fighter who the public has only seen spectacular wins from. Plus Sakara has way more UFC experience (not all successful), but no wins as big as Houston over Jardine. Anticipating a standup fight, I had to favor Sakara with his boxing skills. If Houston has ground skills though I may hedge out of the position since the line has dropped so much.


Looking on to UFC 76, I like Tavares at +145 (on 5Dimes) vs Tyson Griffin. I think Tyson may have Tavares in straight wrestling by a little, but I think Tavares has the edges in standup and submissions. What you guys think?

Re: UFC 75
 

I wouldn't be scared of Houston submitting me if I'm Sakara, either. Although he does have a couple power-based chokes that he can certainly use effectively if you give him the opportunity.

However I would be scared knowing that Houston can probably take me down at will, can pass my guard, can effectively defend submissions (high probabilty at the level of Sakara's jitsu anyways), and can pound the [censored] out of me in the half guard or side mount.

Not sure if that answers your question.

I'm not saying Houston is invincible or that he's the bet of the century yet. I just think a lot of people are overestimating Sakara and underestimating Houston. Based on what i've seen of his training and his skills and his workouts and his condoning and his intelligence and his motivation and his speed, explosiveness, strength and toughness, I think he's got all the tools he needs to come out victorious Saturday.

Sakara has a chance but not a good one, in my opinion. Houston will finish this fight on the ground or from the clinch. He's not going to stand and trade with Sakara. He's either going to put him against the fence and use his excellent muay thai from the clinch, or he's going to take him down and pound him.

-P

Re: UFC 75
 

[ QUOTE ]

Looking on to UFC 76, I like Tavares at +145 (on 5Dimes) vs Tyson Griffin. I think Tyson may have Tavares in straight wrestling by a little, but I think Tavares has the edges in standup and submissions. What you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this bet a lot as well - at least instinctively. I've yet to be overly impressed by Griffin, and Tavares looked good at the last Fight Night. As you say Tavares may have trouble wrestling with and taking down Griffin, which would be a pre-requisite for his best offense on the ground, but I'll re-watch the tapes and check that out in due course I guess.

Re: UFC 75
 

Yea gotta like Tavares at +145. He looked pretty damn impressive on that Fight Night.