Do I fold too much?
 

Please tell me I made a bad fold because I run bad and out think myself.

My thinking was: How can he have anything else than KQ.

Reads

UTG is unknown but apparently terrible
MP is a loose passive fish
CO is a LAG/TAG. Seems ok, not your standard german ABC clone so he prolly has a brain.


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (10.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero folds...

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Hes loose passive right? He could easily have K8 or worse. I hate this fold in a pot of this size with a possibility of having the best hand(loose passives will surprise you sometimes) and 4-5 outs a lot of the time.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

I think there's a bunch of things he could have besides KQ. K2/K8/88/AK, KJ maybe, maybe Ksxs. still think it's a fold though. I keep getting more and more ridiculous with pokerstove and I can't make it tell me we have even 9% equity.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Well he could have any King so I wouldn't discount all your queen outs. But at least one looks to be already out there so I'd give yourself 4 outs with a very small chance that you are best.

I don't like a turn fold and a river fold UI is too close for me. If that river is a diamond than I definitely fold. If it's another King, I definitely call. But everything else depends on how passive you think MP is.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

I think you have 4-5 clean outs and can call this turn. MP probably has a king w/spade draw, or maybe just a smaller pair w/diamond draw. I'd definitely call here and 1 bet on river UI...

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

I fold here too if your read on him being loose/passive is accurate.

Likely only 1 queen out in the deck and 3 ace outs, there is a chance you are drawing dead, and there is a chance of a raise behind you. A diamond draw just being created means there is a small chance the diamond outs are no good either.

Very little implied odds in general..

Calling isnt that bad tho

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

against such a terrib;e players i`m calling to the end.if one overcard it`s enough for u to fold,terrible players will be right bet all the time,and it`s terrible for u

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Terrible guy who mysteriously bets turn = retard who picked up draw making stupid as blank smb. I don't see a huge hand here or he'd have capped the flop. Only way he's only calling flop is to cr the turn. He could have hit the turn obviously but JT looks good too. I've stopped folding to idiots in big pots with anything decent. Seen too many JT's in this spot.

Edit - when you're running bad is a horrible time to make big folds as the donks think they can win every hand against you and you're in deep trouble.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

With your read on MP, you cant be ahead of his hand.
MP was in his standard call/coldcall mode preflop/flop. I think he will never bet a flush-or straightdraw here.
I doubt he will bet a single K, most time he holds 2Pair.

I would fold it too.
Maybe i'm just a half brain german clone [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Dont fold. In the last week at the 2/4 level, I've seen a flush draw, BPTK, and MPTK in these types of spots. All from people I'd describe as "loose passive fish." I think these types sometimes just pick a really weird spot to bluff in.

The pots too big and you are running too bad to fold. I start folding this when I'm running bad and I think its my way of tilting. Don't do it.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

A LP could have KXs in spades and K8 as well as KQ. He could also have a slowplayed set and are afraid you'll check behind. I haven't done the calculations but I would be surprised if you have odds to continue here.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you give MP some combos of dumb stuff like TJ, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], worse Q, maybe even a smaller pair to go along with 2pair and set hands you can easily get &gt;12%. that is including UTG with a range of flush draws, pairs, and discounted sets and 2pairs.

we've all seen passive players make really dumb plays because they suck at poker. a big pot is not the place to make a laydown like this

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you give MP some combos of dumb stuff like TJ, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], worse Q, maybe even a smaller pair to go along with 2pair and set hands you can easily get &gt;12%. that is including UTG with a range of flush draws, pairs, and discounted sets and 2pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

seriously keep adding hands until you get to 12% and see what a joke it is. post it.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

I think my range for UTG here is reasonable


if MP can only have 2pair+;

Board: 2d 8s Qs Kd

oink: 08.565% { AsQc }

MP: 80.461% { 8c8d, 2c2s, 2h2s, KQs, K8s, K2s, Q8s, KQo, K8o, K2o, Q8o }

UTG: 10.974% { 8c8d, 2h2s, AdQd, AsJs, As9s, A8s, As6s, As4s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, K8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Q4s+, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s6s, 86s+, AcQd, AcQh, AdQh, A8o, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, K8o, Q8o+, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }


so oink is in pretty rough shape. but if we add say 1/2 the combos of TJ;

Board: 2d 8s Qs Kd

oink: 19.547% { AsQc }

MP: 66.463% { 8c8d, 2c2s, 2h2s, KQs, K8s, K2s, Q8s, JcTc, JhTh, KQo, K8o, K2o, Q8o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JhTs }

UTG: 13.990% { 8c8d, 2h2s, AdQd, AsJs, As9s, A8s, As6s, As4s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, K8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Q4s+, JsTs, Js9s, J8s, Js7s, Ts9s, T8s, Ts7s, 98s, 9s6s, 86s+, AcQd, AcQh, AdQh, A8o, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, K8o, Q8o+, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }

and I think MPs range is likely wider

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
CO is a LAG/TAG. Seems ok, not your standard german ABC clone so he prolly has a brain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think this fold is just fine if u have a good read. Normally a donk means villain improved, so we have max 5 outs. But some of them may be tainted.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

AK is way more likely for MP than JT

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

yah AK should be in there for sure, but that isn't too many combos (also discounted somewhat due to preflop) and I think other hands we beat should be in there too.

the stove results show that because the 2pair+ hands have relatively few combos, adding even a couple strangely played weaker pairs or draws to villain's hand range increases our equity significantly

edit: clarity

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

He could have a very wide range of hands, but I'm not too sure Im folding here. I don't think he would call the flop with AK, knowing he's probably drawing very thin, with a queen there figuring someone has KQ or AQ. He could, but I don't see AK as a very possible hand (IMO)

I would call here, folding isn't bad and calling isn't bad IMO. If he had a set, he'd be 3-betting before you did as well.

K8 is possible or any other two pair, but it's not an easy laydown IMO. I would call it down just to see what he has at times too, get a little better read on him. But that's just me.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Nah don't fold.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


I'm raising this turn, and that's all I'm putting in. I have seen some retarded plays, and I am not convinced I'm losing.

I can see why you want to fold, the pot is really big, and we probably have 5 outs when behind, well, 4, cause that other guy probably has a Q

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are people that are calling the turn calling down? I dare you to find some hand ranges in stove that give us 12% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you give MP some combos of dumb stuff like TJ, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], worse Q, maybe even a smaller pair to go along with 2pair and set hands you can easily get &gt;12%. that is including UTG with a range of flush draws, pairs, and discounted sets and 2pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

seriously keep adding hands until you get to 12% and see what a joke it is. post it.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
MP is a loose passive fish

[/ QUOTE ]


you are talking about pokerstove like that's all the hands he could have.

He is a fish because he sucks at poker. He sucks at poker because he doesn't know what to do. Just because he bets the turn doesnt mean we are losing, because this guy sucks at poker, it's hard to infer what his turn bet means.

I'm just saying it's hard to PS a range for a guy, when he calls 1000 bets on the flop and donks the turn. That play pretty much shows he has no clue whats going on.


And all of you folding AQ because "he must have two pair", what are you doing with AA on the turn here? Are you folding AA, raising, calling?

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

With AA i would calldown to this turndonk from a very passive station.

Hero cant fold b/c he has 8 outs to beat villain when behind and there is still a chance to be ahead.
I also wouldnt raise to keep utg in the hand.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Ok thanks guys.

It must have been a close one since good players here disagree.

I folded BTW. Donkey had JT for the picked up OESD and the other guy won the pot with QT. I have been tilting ever since.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

he is a fish because he sucks at poker.

He is loose passive because hes loose passive.
They are two connected , but different beasts.

I dont know how you can all argue "loose-passive players do this point 1/2/3/"

I call down or raise if I all I know is "hes a fish"
I fold if I know hes a "loose passive fish"

This all depends on how strong oinks read is on the degree of his passivity

If it's only statistics based, then dont fold.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This all depends on how strong oinks read is on the degree of his passivity


[/ QUOTE ]

All I knew was that he was loose and bad and passive. I didnt really know whether he would be capable of betting a worse hand.

Does that change it to call or raise for you Heis?

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This all depends on how strong oinks read is on the degree of his passivity


[/ QUOTE ]

All I knew was that he was loose and bad and passive. I didnt really know whether he would be capable of betting a worse hand.

Does that change it to call or raise for you Heis?

[/ QUOTE ]

A) Turn donks from bad players like this are often weak hands. It's a cheap mans bluff/semibluff because they want to represent, but don't like putting the money in that a c/r will cost.

B) Calling is dumb. It only makes sense if you can c/f the river UI and the odds are just to big for that - I say this because we are usually either ahead or chrushed on the turn. Raising is god because you will charge both players to draw and you can fold to a 3-bet.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

Oink, from your posts you always analyse each hand extremely well and I can't really fault you.
You're weakness semms to lie in the fact that you seem to beieve that all of the players you are up against spand all day reading 2+2.
They don't. Their minds are not in the logic zone, they play mad hands in the wrong place at the wrong time!

One of them has the draw the other one has QJ a decent ammount of the time.

Raise again! If you get three bet then c/c, it gets tough if one raises and the other cold calls or 4 bets. Only then would I consider a lay down.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

standard call down imo

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

After reading a lot of Oinks posts i dont think he has the weakness of overestimate the skills of his opponents. One of his strengths is that he can adapt his game and making opponent dependent play. For example coldcall QTs bu with 2 loose bad players behind or muck with 2 TAGs behind.

The complete discussion in this hand is imho how strong the read about villain is. We dont know if we play against a very passive station or against an bad player who is able to sometimes make some weird semibluffs multiway.

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok thanks guys.

It must have been a close one since good players here disagree.

I folded BTW. Donkey had JT for the picked up OESD and the other guy won the pot with QT. I have been tilting ever since.

[/ QUOTE ]


god i'm awesome [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Do I fold too much?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok thanks guys.

It must have been a close one since good players here disagree.

I folded BTW. Donkey had JT for the picked up OESD and the other guy won the pot with QT. I have been tilting ever since.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on the information in your OP, this is an easy turn fold. However the problem is the information in your OP obviously wasnt accurate becuz a loose/passive player would never donk the turn in that spot. If he did he would cease to be loose/passive in my book. This is an inherent problem with playing poker. Imperfect information will always abound. You do the best you can with the information you have, and you cant look back with any regrets becuz the nature of this game assures that you will always make plenty of FTOP mistakes. You make money from this game becuz other players will be making alot more mistakes than you so everything works out in the end.

Is your turn play close/debatable/defensible? Yes. Put another way, did you play this hand well given the information at your disposal? Yes, and thats all that really matters. The only thing you did wrong here is you apparently let the results affect your future play. You cannot allow this to happen. Youre not some amature. You are a professional so act like one. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]