200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

No special reads on villain, seems a little "meh" though.

My reasoning for my smaller bet on the turn was that he would probably raise with a big queen, and I didn't want to chace out his small pairs.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $102.70
UTG+1: $238.85
CO: $279.80
Button: $367.60
SB: $34
Hero: $208

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($20, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $14</font>, Button calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($48, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

bet more on turn still. Lead river as played for 32~

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Does he call down light? What's your image? Have you been 2 or 3 barreling a lot lately? Would he bluff a missed draw when checked to?

Against an completely unknown opponent i'd just bet $38.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

c/r all day.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

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c/r all day.

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Me likes. Me likes a lot.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

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c/r all day.

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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

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c/r all day.

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Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

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c/r all day.

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This sucks.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

c/r sucks the big one here

lead 1/2 pot ish

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Why does c/r suck?

FD are bluffing,
Queens are bet/calling or bet/folding
FH's are bet/calling or bet/raising
22-66 are checking behind, but prob folding to a bet anyways.
99-TT are prob bet/folding, maybe checking behind
a pair of 8's or 7's are sometimes bet/folding, sometimes checking behind.

So we only lose value to a pair of 8's, 7's, 99 and TT, and that's not certain. Also, 99-TT are unlikely. By c/r we get a lot of value from all other hands. What am I missing?

EDIT: If he has a 4 in his hand, which is not unlikely, he's probably checking behind if we check, but he's not calling much with that either.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

i feel like there are plenty on unk's who will check a weak Q behind and call anything w it... though i could be wrong

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Because the majority of his range is pairs that will call a bet (this is like the no 1 way to make money at SSNL - people call too much), but check behind if we check and flush draws (which don't bluff the river nearly as often as you think. Saying they definitely bet river is ridiculously naive). He doesn't turn up with Qx as much as the midpairs given turn and river and the fact it would be the case Q. Also checking and betting are pretty similar vs Qx anyway since they are raising if we lead like half-pot anyway.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because the majority of his range is pairs that will call a bet (this is like the no 1 way to make money at SSNL - people call too much), but check behind if we check and flush draws (which don't bluff the river nearly as often as you think. Saying they definitely bet river is ridiculously naive). He doesn't turn up with Qx as much as the midpairs given turn and river and the fact it would be the case Q. Also checking and betting are pretty similar vs Qx anyway since they are raising if we lead like half-pot anyway.

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No sure, they far from always bluff the river, but that doesn't matter because they are never calling a bet either, so the best line against a FD is without doubt to check.

And I disagree that Qx is raising a third barrel on this flop always, but i think they bet very often if we check.

I still like the c/r better..

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

c/r by far for the reasons u already stated

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why does c/r suck?

FD are bluffing,
Queens are bet/calling or bet/folding
FH's are bet/calling or bet/raising
22-66 are checking behind, but prob folding to a bet anyways.
99-TT are prob bet/folding, maybe checking behind
a pair of 8's or 7's are sometimes bet/folding, sometimes checking behind.


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c/r only gets value from FD's

Qx shouldnt be in his range since he needs to raise it flop or turn and almost always does.
FH's have almost always raised flop or turn, but c/r is really good if he rivers a set, which is almost never.
22-66 are checking behind, but sometimes calling 1/2 pot.
99-TT are checking behind, and calling 1/2 pot a lot.
QQ77 and QQ88 are checking behing, and usually calling 1/2 pot.

People dont bet medium stength hands here. They check behind. However, they do call if they think we are FOS, as we easily could be on this board.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

so yeah I think c/r loses lots of value and ONLY gets value from a luckboxed 77 or a missed flush draw

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Just bet here, probably like $33. Riall is right--there are a ton of hands that are basically bluffcatchers that will call a bet but will rarely get bet for value if we check. A queen seems fairly unlikely based on the action so far, and might not even call a big river check-raise in this spot. Most of the time he has a hand that won't bet, or, if it does, won't call a check raise, so against those hands checking is way worse than just betting.

Hands that would bet and call a check raise are the strong slowplayed Q's or a smaller boat. Boats are very very likely to raise the river if we bet anyway and we can get all in simply by leading the river (actually, probably easier because a c-rai on the river is going to be a huge bet, but if we lead and get raised less than a push no one will ever get away when we push for the last bit of money).

The only hand that a check raise seems best against is a slowplayed queen, which I think we see pretty rarely given action so far. A flush draw might bluff sometimes, but nowhere near enough to make up for the value we lose to hands that will check behind if we check but would have called a better. In a limped pot on a board like this, my experience is that people use almost any pair as a bluffcatcher given your actions, so I think you'll get paid a LOT here by just valuebetting.

JR's point about the #1 mistake being people call too much is so true in a spot like this and we can easily exploit that mistake here. Bet bet bet.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever.

1)FD bricked
2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56
2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet
3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever.

1)FD bricked
2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56
2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet
3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

1 yes
2 no
3 no, we've already heard from worse Qx. Seriously, Qx doesn't call-call-call
4 yeah, but they do a lot and they always check behind

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Yeah Qx can definitely be hugely discounted because of his line and the fact there is only 1 more Q out there.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

definitely bet river.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

Initially I thought betting the river was opitmal.

But Im finding it hard to put villian on a hand that isn't a flush draw.

He's raising most pairs on the button, maybe limping 22-66, but then probablly not calling a turn bet with those hands (except 44, which is irrelevent since the money goes in anyways).

So why wouldnt you try and indice a bluff since it looks highly unlikely your getting called.

He could have something like Q9, QT - and then he's betting river anyways.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF? This is like the easiest C/R ever.

1)FD bricked
2)possible idiot gutter w/ 56
2)worse Qx is almost forced to bet
3)one pair hands aren't necessarily calling a bet anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

1 yes
2 no
3 no, we've already heard from worse Qx. Seriously, Qx doesn't call-call-call
4 yeah, but they do a lot and they always check behind

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So you think Qx doesn't call down, but you think this guy might have 99-TT? No way, just about everyone will raise those from the button.

Qx is DEFINITELY in this guys range, as are hearts. Anything else is unlikely...I'm not sure why you guys think pp's are the most likely.

I think cr is fine, but I'd probably be too scared to try it :P

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

c/ring is good in this spot because villain will most likely lead out with any Q or a missed fd. This is risky though because many villains will check behind w Qx or a busted fd.

I like potting here more but I wouldn't expect a call from anything other than Qx.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

C/R here sucks hard.

Medium pairs (TT, 99, 8x, whatever) are checking behind an overwhelming amount of the time and a whole lot of villains are calling a 1/2 pot bet on the river with them. Don't miss the value.

Qx is going to get all in with you most of the time, doesn't matter if you b/r or c/r. Even still, as has been said he rarely has the queen here.

Flush draws don't really bluff as much on the river as you seem to think.

If he floated you, he would have probably raised the turn. People very very rarely float and then float again when the 2nd barrel is fired.


Basically, he isn't bluffing frequently enough and is checking behind hands that would call too much for a c/r to be any good.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

if villain has a small pair here we likely get no value from 3 barrels anyway. If he is bad enough that we do, prove to me hes not dumb enough to 'vbet' it or turn it into a bluff. I dont think he EVER checks behind Qx here. yeah right.

And I dont see why him calling flop and turn with a Q is so unpossible? its hard to rep much here by raising besides a queen, and makes hero fold a ton of hands.

I think the value we get by villain bluffing his missed FD/getting it in when villain has other queens and bet-calls his QJ or QT instead of quite possibly flatting our bet is way above what we get by sometimes getting a call from 99 or something.

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

i think $29 is a good number on the river. it's all fine

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

i don't really like the c/r, i think his range is mostly pairs 66+, and he is stubborn. i think he will check behind so often.

it is a shame we fold out the flush draws, but i think less busted flushes will bet than stubborn pairs will call, hence the bet (has to be smallish to induce the call)

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

c/r seems TERRIBLE he's not betting unless he would have called/raised

Re: 200NL: Getting max value with nuts
 

for the "small pair bets" crew, the small pairs will as well call a bet but wont call a c/r so its wrong to say c/r&gt;bet in case he has 99/TT (which I doubt he has anyway).