Sick satellite KK spot
 

Top 3 pay. I haven't been opening much lately and should have a tight image. this is the first time saphire 3bet me and sYs has been fairly active although hasnt done anything ridiculous yet. its a spot where i think sYs should be folding AA (?) so when he does this how tight does his range have to be?!?!

PokerStars Game #11689093039: Tournament #58565650, $1000+$50 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2007/08/25 - 18:14:22 (ET)
Table '58565650 3' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: THE__D__RY (30174 in chips)
Seat 3: Born2DogBaby (14732 in chips)
Seat 4: saphire1 (30765 in chips)
Seat 7: sYsonator (51829 in chips)
THE__D__RY: posts the ante 50
Born2DogBaby: posts the ante 50
saphire1: posts the ante 50
sYsonator: posts the ante 50
sYsonator: posts small blind 400
THE__D__RY: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Born2DogBaby [Kc Kd]
Born2DogBaby: raises 1200 to 2000
saphire1: raises 3600 to 5600
sYsonator: raises 6400 to 12000
THE__D__RY: folds
Born2DogBaby:

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

If we fold this, arent we going to have to double up twice to get a seat, against some of the very best?

If so, taking 20% chance to lock in a seat if we know he has AA doesnt seem all that terrible. There might be a couple percent chance that it isn't AA, and he is just pulling a super squeeze...

I think I would need to see the aces face up to fold KK as the fourth stack by a stretch with 3 seats on the line. This is pretty close, but its certainly possible this is a multi-level thinking issue.

Given these stack sizes and players, arent you at about a 20% chance of getting a seat anyway? And if so, doesnt winning this pot just about lock you in? Maybe we have to take it even if it is aces.

And why arent we just pushing preflop. <20BB is perfectly acceptable to open push, and one of these guys may well put you on hand way worse than what you have and call to bust you. Shrug

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

i don't play a lot of satellites but I'm in the push pre camp...there are so many worse hands that may call and double us that I think we have to play it out...again...I'm not a satellite math expert though I think I need to work on it more

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
i don't play a lot of satellites but I'm in the push pre camp

[/ QUOTE ]

that's terrible, you want someone to do something stupid like bluff shove

well, until this, where you basically say something like "akjfjsdhgfhjsjkhhkjdf" and then pretty much determine how retarded the villain has to be to make a shove +EV

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

as the shortest stack i think you have to stick it in.

but, how likely is saphire to shove something like AK, QQ? Part of your calculation has to be the possibility that you fold and sys busts saph this hand.

I think sys should be folding AA; the fact that he didn't fold indicates he probably isn't aware how tightly he should be playing; i.e. if he makes this raise with any hand, he's probably not making it with AA only.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we fold this, arent we going to have to double up twice to get a seat, against some of the very best?


[/ QUOTE ]

NO! Absolutely not! Saphire likes his hand. There is a good chance that
he is going to get it all in right now against sYs and that you will win
the seat on this hand.

This looks like an easy fold after the reraise and 4 bet.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

I have never folded KK BTF, but folding seems to be closer than most people think. I have no idea who these players are, but assuming they are good, the first raiser should have a very narrow range, and the second raiser really shouldn't be playing any hands, even AA. Given that he 4
bet is he only doing this with AA, KK, or perhaps AK, or because he 3 bet when he should have folded, does that mean he has a more expanded range? I'm not sure. But given that you are short stack and you need to double up I'd probably call. If you fold than the 3 better will probably
fold and you'll be right back where you started minus T2000.

Bruce

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Let 'em have it.

4-handed and you got KK - if they have AA - **it happens.

The chance of AA against KK on a 4-handed table are very slim.

And remember you are the desperate shortstack. So you need to double up.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

I think this is a really interesting spot...

but I think the discussion thusfar has sucked.

I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Pukes and folds, but only because it is a satellite. Basically what AS said about their hands.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

okay I'll elaborate:

[ QUOTE ]
I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we shove, saphire should only call AA, I think. If we fold, he might even need to fold aces (maybe not, but it's closer than if we shove because he'd need to finish third to bust).

sYs' range is one of three things: exactly AA, AA-QQ/AK (if he's dumb), or two cards that he's screwing around with because he knows no one can call. If you shove, it has to be because #3 outweighs the likelihood of #1.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
okay I'll elaborate:

[ QUOTE ]
I'll contribute this... Saphire is probably never continuing. It would take AA for him to put more chips in the pot, even if we fold. With that said, can sYs ever not have AA here? I'm really baffled by this spot and I'm leaning towards folding. Seems like sYs has to have AA and Saphire will never continue unless he has AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we shove, saphire should only call AA, I think. If we fold, he might even need to fold aces (maybe not, but it's closer than if we shove because he'd need to finish third to bust).

sYs' range is one of three things: exactly AA, AA-QQ/AK (if he's dumb), or two cards that he's screwing around with because he knows no one can call. If you shove, it has to be because #3 outweighs the likelihood of #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, playing the hand without looking at KK - The shorty open raised 2K of his 14K stack where open pushing is the generally accepted line for a ss on a sat bubble. Shouldn't player #2 just push over (at least raise to more than 8K straight) to commit the short stack? His raise is small for a full table, let alone 4 handed. What does he have? I'd guess AK or possibly QQ-TT looking to bail on his hand if someone else gets in the action and he doesn't like the flop. He's GOT to be done with this hand as his action would be retarded with AA.

So, sYs raises again to commit both players to a sat deciding pot when he doesn't need to - I mean he can survive losing an AI to anyone and still be in the running for a seat. IMHO, he has AA 80% of the time and ATC 20% looking to squeeze the shortie into folding since he only bet 2K and saphire into folding his retarded bet.

20% (KK vs. AA) plus 20% air is enough to call 12K into 2K plus 2100 plus 5600 plus 12K (anticipated call if we push) as 21,700/12,000 is just under 2:1.

Unless you are certain sYs has AA, this is a call. If we were not so short, I could see a fold here but if we do so now, we have 15BBs at a 4 handed game.

I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

open pushing is absolutely horrific

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think open pushing is >>>>>>> pushing now >>>>>>>>> folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

open pushing is absolutely horrific

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT That said... It's tough to say what to do here and I think it's pretty much been covered, and is highly dependent on your read of sYs

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

wtf, why do people think open-shoving 18 bb's is "normal" or "the best play here"

Seriously, what runs through your head when you decide to post in a strategy thread that open-jamming KK with 18bb's is the "standard play"?!

rtjhnwjklthnlwjrhnjklrh

!?!?!?!egbjklth

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Open shoving is terrible. We want action.

However, it is too likely we are beat here, and we aren't looking for marginal spots just yet. Fold, but it's very close. The slightest read would push my decision into a shove.

Whoever said we lock up a spot if we double up here is completely wrong, and knowingly sticking our chips in as a 4-1 dog would be unreal terrible.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Beach, you are advocating a push because you want a double up, but we are much more likely to double up by making it 2k to go. We rarely get action when we push.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have a lot to learn before replying to posts in HSMTT

If you think open-shoving KK with 18bb's gets you the most action, you are very very wrong

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please educate me, then. We have 18 bbs (and an M of 4.5!!)& a very strong hand. We should be open pushing or folding only since we are MOST susecptible to being blinded down to being called loosely when we have fewer chips. If we steal the B+A, congrats we live for 4 more hands. At 50K/30K/30K/15K stacks, there is little hope of folding (waiting for an opponent to make a mistake) into a seat. If we are open pushing, then I'm delighted to do so with KK. We need to double through someone looking to bust us to get a seat. I'll make my stand right here and hope that I get a call in this situation.

Honestly, I doubt that I'm good enough to fold KK as the shortie, so I'll just push it with this stack size and hope for a call. I think a 2K bet here is just dumb unless you planned to 3 bet AI once you have an opponent odds committed to call.

So al;fdljkgh;sd,.god, b'flbv, df to your logic, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You miscalculated M. 14732/1400 = ~10. That's too high to be open pushing with anything.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

I'm very surprised people are saying to fold this.

Sysonater has a much larger stack than saphire and therefore if he thinks saphire isn't berserk, he can be coming over the top of him with a fairly wide range. I'm NOT saying he SHOULD do this but people do weird things sometimes, especially in unfamiliar situations. Get it in!

Ryan

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

saying open shoving is the best course of action here is ridiculously results orientated

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
saying open shoving is the best course of action here is ridiculously awful

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

Interesting spot. But I'm not folding KK here in 4-handed as the shortest stack. Raising 2K shows you wanted action and don't complain if you got too much action [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Without looking at stacksizes and the situation, it's a close decision of push/fold. They surely play like AA,KK to us because we only raise 2K and they see our raising range is wide. This is what we want them to think.

Assume sYs has AA, (to him)you two's ranges would be KK,AK,QQ, why sYs made the second re-raise in this 4-handed FT given his stacksize vs yours? it tells me sYs wants the other guy to fold and HU with you because of your stacksize doesn't hurt him and your open 2K is weak. saph re-raise's range is wide in 4 handed FT given your stack. Like others said, saph could only call with AA if you push, he may fold AA here given 3 spots getting paid.

Open push with KK is bad here.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Without looking at stacksizes

[/ QUOTE ]

in a sat, you just can't do that, period.

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

I dont think I could fold in this situation, but after reading the responces from adanthar and ZJ I can see why folding may be correct. The big stack knows we cannot tangle with him and so he could easily (20% likely??) be doing this with many holdings that are way behind KK. Our shove would show tremendous strength, everything folds except AA, four handed I like my chances, then when I lose I will complain about online poker being rigged...LOL...

Re: Sick satellite KK spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Our shove would show tremendous strength, everything folds except AA

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 3: Born2DogBaby (14732 in chips)
sYsonator: raises 6400 to 12000

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