Whoa...
 

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $0.8</font>, Button folds, Hero...

Villian is running 25/0/1.5 over 64 hands.

Re: Whoa...
 

just fold you've invested nothing

Re: Whoa...
 

Stack sizes?

Re: Whoa...
 

Oops... sorry. $10.30 effective stacks (103 BB)

Re: Whoa...
 

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
just fold you've invested nothing

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this been said a lot on various differant forums. The amount you have or haven't invested makes absolutely no difference to the decision your faced with now, it's an irrelevant point

Re: Whoa...
 

very standard 3bet. jerry you really need to take some time off

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
just fold you've invested nothing

[/ QUOTE ]

With all do respect, how much we have invested is irrelevant. Our concern is with our EV only. Once money is in the pot, it does not matter where it came from.

edit: cooker beat me to it

Re: Whoa...
 

this is definately not a very standard 3bet.... its close between fold or call OOP IMO.

Re: Whoa...
 

i know its a 0 af, but 65 hands isn't really much. i'm probably 3bet/folding to a 4b, if called leading good flops and checking all others.

there's some merit to calling in that you get utg in the pot, and you're killing his range - but i don't like it. you still have the co left to act behind him, and you're c/f'ing any flop that doesn't hit you.

Re: Whoa...
 

I would call, the pot will be just right on the flop

Re: Whoa...
 

i've seen this type of players make this bet with JJ. they are scared of overcards and don't know how to play those middlepairs.

I would just call and reavaluate on the flop

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
just fold you've invested nothing

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folding is the worst option of the three imo. call and take a flop or 3bet and get it all in if he wants to.

Re: Whoa...
 

his 8xbb raise is semi alarming. thoughts on making it like $2 and folding if he shoves? (and c/f-ing most flops if he calls)?

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
very standard 3bet. jerry you really need to quit poker

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Re: Whoa...
 

We beat nothing he makes that bet with [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
very standard 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really ? Villain raises nothing (thus not trying to steal anything) for 10-12 orbits and out of the blue comes an 8x raise.

What range do you give him .. JJ+ and AK ? Say we hit the flop. Against QQ/JJ our implied odds reek, against AA/KK we've got a good chance to go busto. Only the very best case (A on ragged flop against KK) might pay off. And still not talking about UTG.

Sorry, I pass on this opportunity. I fold. (though I 3bet against a player with a wider raising range)

Re: Whoa...
 

this is only over 64 hands he could have just been card dead.....
I still 3 bet this oop or at least call I cant just open fold AK preflop like this

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is only over 64 hands he could have just been card dead.....
I still 3 bet this oop or at least call I cant just open fold AK preflop like this

[/ QUOTE ]

So we 3bet. What's your plan for (UTG folds)

a) villain caps or AI
b) flop all rags
c) rags, but A or K high
d) A or K high and at least a BD-draw for us

Re: Whoa...
 

a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll think about that.

BTW .. let's assume we think his 0%-PFR comes from card-deadness only. What do you think about trying to win this pot preflop with a 3bet-AI raise trying to represent AA ? Of course it's gambling, but is it ..

[ ] disputable
[ ] bad
[ ] go, quit poker

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll think about that.

BTW .. let's assume we think his 0%-PFR comes from card-deadness only. What do you think about trying to win this pot preflop with a 3bet-AI raise trying to represent AA ? Of course it's gambling, but is it ..

[ ] disputable
[ ] bad
[ ] go, quit poker

[/ QUOTE ]

3 bet push is not the way to rep AA DUCY?

not to mention this is not a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff.

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]

3 bet push is not the way to rep AA DUCY?


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess because airlines usually want to be called/raised and not to drive out opponents.

[ QUOTE ]

not to mention this is not a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff.

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I don't think it's a mere bluff. Assumption was that UTG folds and that villain has a wider ('normal' CO-raising) range. So we have fold equity, go most probably busto against AA/KK and have 45-55% showdown value against probable other calling hands.

Re: Whoa...
 

just not a fan of 3-bet pushing with 100bb stacks use your post flop skill to beat oponents.

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is how we plan to play postflop (and I can't see how else we play), then 3-betting is a bad idea.

a) We almost never fold him out with our 3-bet. About 25% of the time, he pushes and we fold.
b) 67% of the time we miss. We c-bet and probably fold him out around 40% of the time (including other AK's and JJ on a Q-high flop) but lose our investment + c-bet the other 60%. This is the biggest loss in EV, but fit or fold is a loser as well.
c) 33% of the time we hit. We win the pot about 75% of the time, chop 15% and get stacked roughly 10%.

Any way I calc this, it's -EV. At least by calling, maybe we have some wiggle room to outplay him or get some implied odds by winning a c-bet on an A- or K-high flop when his pp misses. But do we even get EV from that?

Also, how big a preflop raise would you call with AK against this guy? If we call 0.80, do we call 1.00 - 1.20?

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://zulfiqar.typepad.com/photos/u...neo_whoa_1.jpg

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If I hadn't posted this mid-session, I so would've added this picture to the initial post.

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
his 8xbb raise is semi alarming. thoughts on making it like $2 and folding if he shoves? (and c/f-ing most flops if he calls)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Orange, why do you think this is any better than calling and c/f-ing most flops?

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a) fold
b)c-bet 2/3 pot give up if called
c) c bet 2/3 pot and prob stack off
d)see c

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is how we plan to play postflop (and I can't see how else we play), then 3-betting is a bad idea.

a) We almost never fold him out with our 3-bet. About 25% of the time, he pushes and we fold.
b) 67% of the time we miss. We c-bet and probably fold him out around 40% of the time (including other AK's and JJ on a Q-high flop) but lose our investment + c-bet the other 60%. This is the biggest loss in EV, but fit or fold is a loser as well.
c) 33% of the time we hit. We win the pot about 75% of the time, chop 15% and get stacked roughly 10%.

Any way I calc this, it's -EV. At least by calling, maybe we have some wiggle room to outplay him or get some implied odds by winning a c-bet on an A- or K-high flop when his pp misses. But do we even get EV from that?

Also, how big a preflop raise would you call with AK against this guy? If we call 0.80, do we call 1.00 - 1.20?

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a) there is no way we know that he pushes 25% of the time
b) if we 3 bet then cbet 2/3 the pot andtake it 40% of the time we are making money. ( only has to work 1/3 times to break even)
c) how does flat calling alow us to out play him after the flop? yeah our range is hidden but so is his

Re: Whoa...
 

Yeah Bill, where are you getting those percentages from? If they're from an estimation of villain's range that you feel is sufficiently accurate, I think you've answered your own question...

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah Bill, where are you getting those percentages from? If they're from an estimation of villain's range that you feel is sufficiently accurate, I think you've answered your own question...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, it does make some assumptions that may not be accurate, so I'll back up. Can we safely assume a range of TT+ or JJ+ and AK to this guy, or do you think based on his sample size he might still come in lighter? (I should mention limper is running about 50/4/1 at this point, in case it matters to anyone)

If we assign a range of TT+/AK, AA/KK makes up about 20% of his range. Obviously, we don't know if he pushes QQ. That's the 25% I assigned to a 4-bet push. The rest is loosely based on the same. I'm not saying we might not call here, but I think a 3-bet is putting me in a bad spot, no?

Re: Whoa...
 

[ QUOTE ]
not to mention this is not a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff.

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it's extremely hard to turn AK into a bluff pf regardless of your action...or maybe i misunderstood and you were talking about the flop?