100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

Villian = 15/5, plays predictable poker and im almost positive has AA/QQ after his flop+turn call....river is one card in the deck i dont want to see and villian open pushes. Should i stick to my read? Or is this just one of those call it and blame it on stars being rigged if i lose?

Also any differences on bet sizing on flop+turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($106.35)
MP3 ($140.45)
CO ($103.15)
Button ($36.70)
SB ($108.10)
BB ($42.05)
UTG ($34.15)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($26)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, UTG+1 calls $10.

Turn: ($39.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, UTG+1 calls $20.

River: ($79.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $61 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $61.

Final Pot: $201.50

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

Bet more on the turn. As played, this is a fist pump call on the river.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

This hand just sucks. His range is simply too large with that board to have any idea where you stand.

Possibly raise PF, but only cause you have position, but looking at his line - I don't see him letting it go. I see AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, AK, 88, 66 here - 1/2 suck - 1/2 don't.

Which just makes it a coin-flip. He got tricky on the turn by the c/c which makes me think you're beat - but man oh man....this hand just sucks.

As played - depends on your mood. Sometimes I fold this - other times I push this. Gotta be player-read dependent at this point.

I can't wait to see the results.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, AK, 88, 66 here - 1/2 suck - 1/2 don't.

[/ QUOTE ]
AK and AQ are HEAVILY discounted because he called a flop raise when he just had ace-high. He never has JJ here.

Depending on how nitty he is, this might be a fold. If you had bet/raised bigger on flop and turn river would have been a no-brainer though.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet more on the turn. As played, this is a fist pump call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
If this guy is a 15/5 nit who rarely gets out of line I can't see what we beat.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly raise PF, but only cause you have position,

[/ QUOTE ]LOL

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Possibly raise PF, but only cause you have position,

[/ QUOTE ]LOL

[/ QUOTE ] ???? Explain?

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

wow, gotta bet more on the turn.

As played, i find a fold on teh river.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

and raise more on flop

you shouldn't ahve even got to this river

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

He hit the Q. Someone that tight probably isn't raising UTG with small PP very often.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

thanks for the help, yea i def. need work on my bet sizing and this hand i was 95% sure i should fold this river. I ended up calling though and saw AA which was my read or possibly QQ.

On the turn I felt like a 1/2 pot bet would get this guy to either check raise with his hand or even call down drawing slim.

What would you guys suggest would be optimal bet sizes on flop + turn?

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

[ QUOTE ]

Possibly raise PF, but only cause you have position

I dont think re raising pre would be profitable against this type of player. His range UTG+1 is too slim and i am almost always dominated. Also with my smooth call i dont mind other callers to come along to start building a nice pot so I can get more money in on the flop it if i do hit a set.

Re: 100NL set but bad river card for my read......
 

This is one of the gross spots where I actually would condone set folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].