NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Villain was 12/6/0 over 31. Finished 11/6/1 over 70.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($17.30)
CO ($25.65)
Button ($9.50)
SB ($46.40)
BB ($25)
UTG ($6.95)
UTG+1 ($16.65)
Hero ($30.75)
MP2 ($11.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($1.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.75</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.25</font>, Hero ?

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Unraised pot.
5th nuts.
BB missed flop c/r (possible).
BB's rereraise is very specific here.
34 just got there.
5th nuts.
Unraised pot.
BB's rereraise is very specific here.
This is KJ hearts NEVER.
5th nuts in an unraised pot.

Foldfoldfold.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Foldfoldfold.

[/ QUOTE ]He has 34 nearly 100% of the time making this a call, not a fold.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Villian was BB, he could have almost anything preflop. AA is probably a low possibility though since MOST of the time he would raise with AA.

Sure his postflop AF is low, but you don't have enough hands to really take this into account, especially at the time it happened.

Stack off. The villian (as far as we know) will stack with A8 and probably other 2 pair hands all day so no need to get scared here.

If you disagree, then I think you are weighting the PT numbers too much.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Foldfoldfold.

[/ QUOTE ]He has 34 nearly 100% of the time making this a call, not a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

12/6/1 's don't play 34. This is A8 or AK or AQ or 88, or 44

By bad, unraised pot. It's definitely not 34 100% of the time. Although it is your fault for making that a possibility by not raising this hand pre flop. Raise it preflop and follow it with a CB bet. You will make money that way just like you will when you make your sets.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

I'd probably end up calling/shoving and losing, then throwing my mouse. That being said, this is one time where you may actually be able to confidently fold a set. 43o and 43dd just got there, and 3 higher sets are out. It's a limped pot and you've been three bet by a tight player, and most two pairs are out of the equation.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

This is the BB in an unraised pot, so there's no question as to whether or not he would play 43. For that matter, I'm not sure how you claim this guy is too tight to have 43 but A8 is in his range.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 pairs aren't missing a flop checkraise, they're leading out.

This is the kind of hand where you go "DUMDEDUM I HAS A SET ARRINARRINARRIN o wtf how could he have 34 there poker is rigged." This seperates winners from marginal winners, marginal winners from breakeven players, and breakeven players from losing players.

Going broke with no reads and not defining your villain's hand with the 5th nuts is a good way to, well, go broke.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Shove. If the flop was A52 you'd get all in, what's the difference here? You're good more than 45% of the time.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 pairs aren't missing a flop checkraise, they're leading out.

This is the kind of hand where you go "DUMDEDUM I HAS A SET ARRINARRINARRIN o wtf how could he have 34 there poker is rigged." This seperates winners from marginal winners, marginal winners from breakeven players, and breakeven players from losing players.

Going broke with no reads and not defining your villain's hand with the 5th nuts is a good way to, well, go broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV. I'd be alot more worried about 55 or 88, but if he happens to have that it is just bad luck.

Bottom line, Getting it all-in here is +EV even against a fairly nitty opponent. I really believe he will get all his money in with A8 and other two pair hands.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

His aggression factor, at the time, was zero. Even after the bet/3bet on the turn, it only finished at 1. Nitty, yes, passive, YES. Passive players don't bet/3bet a street without a huge huge hand. Random 2 pairs in an unraised 5 way pot do not qualify. Your particular hand would be the worst possible hand I could see him doing this with; hence you are beat here A LOT.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, Wrong?

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
His aggression factor, at the time, was zero. Even after the bet/3bet on the turn, it only finished at 1. Nitty, yes, passive, YES. Passive players don't bet/3bet a street without a huge huge hand. Random 2 pairs in an unraised 5 way pot do not qualify. Your particular hand would be the worst possible hand I could see him doing this with; hence you are beat here A LOT.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, Wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's right, because if he has 34 then you still have 10 outs to the river, I mean if the only hand he could possibly have is 34, then you're right. There is no way to narrow his range that tightly.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shove. If the flop was A52 you'd get all in, what's the difference here? You're good more than 45% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like shoving it all in, in an unraised pot.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

10 outs, 21% to win.

$5 to call, not getting 4:1 here because pot is like $12. So yeah, he's wrong if villain had flipped 34 over.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

If this was the flop Hero worst case scenario would have two shots to fill up, not one.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

If villian shows us 43, all-in would indded be -EV.

Although a flatcall will probably +EV. Is the villian really going to fold a straight when the board pairs? All we would need would be like a 1/2 pot size bet to break even.

This is just the case where he has specifically 43 though. I really believe you all are underestimating his ability to get all the money in the middle with only 2 pair.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL&gt;= peeps do blows my mind.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Not raising PF means having no idea where you're at here....

Nonetheless BB's range is bigger than a bread basket, so tagging him with 34 is just rediculously nitty.

Push! His A-8, A-x FD, etc. etc. could just as well be re-raising you to define your hand, cause he thinks he's ahead. Your stats on him mean nothing - too small a sample.

If you stack off - you've got to be +EV here. If he shows 3-4 or AA or whatever.........re-up and attack.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL&gt;= peeps do blows my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

12/6/0 over 31

The number 0 is based on very little information.
His PFR% indicates he's raised maybe 2 hands in the 31 he's played. Maybe he won the blinds and didn't even see a flop. He's limped a couple of more times, maybe he had a draw and called a couple times then folded. That's all the info we're going on. He can have a 0 AF but still not be the biggest NIT ever. It is only 31 hands. Even 70 hands isn't alot to go on for postflop AF.

And even if he has a low aggro for real, that could just mean he calls alot with pairs, but when he get's a monster like 2 pair, he likes to slow play the flop and push the action on the turn.

Be careful when interpreting PT numbers. A low AF doesn't necassarily mean he needs at least trips to ever raise or get all-in. It just means he calls more often than he bets and raises.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

Pokerstoving excluding only AA and including all 2 pair hands gives 55.5% equity.

But, in the real world, 2 pairs play this way less often than sets and 34. If we say that the 2 pair hands are half as likely as the killers to follow villain's pattern, you have only 38% equity. Maybe talk it up to 40% allowing for bluffs and Ax possibilities.

Given the money already in the pot, a shove isn't horrible. But, it's high variance play, and its a kick in the teeth to get oversetted, gotta think about what that does to your tilt control for the next few hands after.

If you can bring yourself to make the big laydown, I think a fold is the best play.

Re: NL25: fold bottom set?
 

BB thinks he's got the best hand on the turn- this is not a bluff. That's about all we can conclude from his 3-bet and his stats.

So what could he have where you beat him but he could still think he's ahead of your range? The key would be to know what he thinks your turn raise means. If you've been playing LAG here and doing a lot of semibluff raising then you want to be AI here. If not... then I think this is a lot closer than some are giving credit for if BB is even close to being solid.

At NL25 I still call because villians usually think one street at a time only and he could put you on a range that includeds medium-strong aces for TP, random 2 pairs, 34, as well as sets. Against this range he'd be putting you on, any two pair is probably a favorite and the meat of his range- meaning you are the favorite to get AI.

But if he is thinking and knows you don't suck, then your range is pretty narrow here and would be 22, 34s, A2s because you are not going have 2pair with 85,82,or 52. And you're not going to slowplay the flop 4-way with 2 diamonds with A5s,A8s, 55, or 88. So against that range, what range would the BB have that he thinks he's a favorite against you- but you still beat? Not much.... if you assume he'd not slowplay 2-pair or a set with two diamonds on the flop then the only hands that makes sense would be A2, 82, 52, 43. And if he had your range as 22,34,A2s then he's not going nuts with 82, 52, or A2.

Of course this is a 25NL- so just push since he could have pretty much any 2-pair hand since no one at 25NL really thinks the way I outlined above at the table.