How -EV is this call?
 

I will preface this by saying that I know I should have folded. I almost folded. I kicked myself before I called. I know I finish ITM close to all the time here, but I felt the BB, who was TAG, is pushing with any J or 10 here on the bubble, to force me off.

My question is to anyone who knows how to run this calculation. I need to learn, and this is about the best example I've ever encountered. How much money am I losing on this call? (Pay-outs at Stars 90-54-36). Do I always fold here unless I am playing a maniac (which I wasn't)?

PokerStars Game #11629470894: Tournament #58999994, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/08/22 - 13:10:25 (ET)
Table '58999994 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 5: ZPotvin (810 in chips)
Seat 7: keefy817 (4196 in chips)
Seat 8: The Stats (3827 in chips)
Seat 9: mikal12345 (4667 in chips)
ZPotvin: posts the ante 25
keefy817: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts the ante 25
mikal12345: posts the ante 25
The Stats: posts small blind 200
mikal12345: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to keefy817 [Jd As]
ZPotvin: folds
keefy817: raises 400 to 800
The Stats: folds
mikal12345: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Th 4h Js]
mikal12345: bets 3842 and is all-in
keefy817: calls 3371 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [Th 4h Js] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [Th 4h Js 2h] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mikal12345: shows [Ad Jh] (a flush, Jack high)
keefy817: shows [Jd As] (a pair of Jacks)
mikal12345 collected 8642 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8642 | Rake 0
Board [Th 4h Js 2h 7h]
Seat 5: ZPotvin folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: keefy817 (button) showed [Jd As] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: The Stats (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: mikal12345 (big blind) showed [Ad Jh] and won (8642) with a flush, Jack high

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

why are you minraising?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB can't resteal if you go all in pf. Easy shove.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I'm sure the steal works most of the time (it doesn't here, of course, but that is irrelevant), but is it advisable to raise 10x on the bubble when the next BB is so short?

Can anyone tell me anything about the post-flop play?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

Is a raise to $1000 awful?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It became the standard raise at the table when the blinds increased to 200/400. I also wanted to protect some chips against a BB shove-steal when the UTG player is putting more than half his chips in the next blinds and ante.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care what the "standard" raise is. The minraise is awful here. This is a push or fold preflop scenario. The postflop call is fine.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

As played, I think you have to fold (though not sure if I could actually lay it down). There are too many draws out there and you've only invested 800 so far. Fold and get ITM.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I'd just shove pf. min raising is too weak here. 1. you open another chance for sb/bb to resteal, if any of them shove on you, you have to fold. 2. had you shoved pf, they can't call you except for KK AA, because the bubble boy is going to be blinded out next hand or at most two hands later.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

Yes, read the FAQ, get an ICM calculator.

You should be pushing here every time & twice on Sunday. Moreover, you will be the chip leader when you take this down.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I think I have the PreF push ingrained now.

However, I made the mistake PreF. Let's get past that. Did I compound that mistake, in your estimation, my calling off with TPTK post-flop ?

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just shove pf. min raising is too weak here. 1. you open another chance for sb/bb to resteal, if any of them shove on you, you have to fold. 2. had you shoved pf, they can't call you except for KK AA, because the bubble boy is going to be blinded out next hand or at most two hands later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had been stealing quite a few pots prior to this hand. The call range is MUCH looser than AA and KK in my estimation. I would guess he calls more than 50% of the time here. He also doubled up through me about 10 hands before, calling an all-in with A-10 (to my A-Q).

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As played, I think you have to fold (though not sure if I could actually lay it down). There are too many draws out there and you've only invested 800 so far. Fold and get ITM.

[/ QUOTE ]

what

fold because villain has draws a lot? i need a sick read to consider a fold here.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I wouldn't say the call was horrible. The way he played this screams flush draw, or maybe weak TP, or a complete bluff pushing back thinking the preflop aggressor missed the flop (very unlikely in this spot though). In this scenario, I typically don't expect villain to turn over much better than Kh Jh, which you're still beating by a very slim margin. Another AJ is obviously possible, including Ah Jh (which is horrible), but most stronger hands would have either reraised preflop or would check the flop here.

Overall, you basically just put yourself in a bad position with the PF min-raise. There's a good argument for both sides here IMO, which makes the play very read-dependant. Without a read though I guess I'd have a small lean toward calling given about 1.4 to 1 on your money.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

ditto + use a f..ing converter next time.

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't say the call was horrible. The way he played this screams flush draw, or maybe weak TP, or a complete bluff pushing back thinking the preflop aggressor missed the flop (very unlikely in this spot though). In this scenario, I typically don't expect villain to turn over much better than Kh Jh, which you're still beating by a very slim margin. Another AJ is obviously possible, including Ah Jh, but most stronger hands would have either reraised preflop or would check the flop here.

Overall, you basically just put yourself in a bad position with the PF min-raise. There's a good argument for both sides here IMO, which makes the play very read-dependant. Without a read though I guess I'd have a small lean toward calling given about 1.4 to 1 on your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't say the call was horrible. The way he played this screams flush draw, or maybe weak TP, or a complete bluff pushing back thinking the preflop aggressor missed the flop (very unlikely in this spot though). In this scenario, I typically don't expect villain to turn over much better than Kh Jh, which you're still beating by a very slim margin. Another AJ is obviously possible, including Ah Jh, but most stronger hands would have either reraised preflop or would check the flop here.

Overall, you basically just put yourself in a bad position with the PF min-raise. There's a good argument for both sides here IMO, which makes the play very read-dependant. Without a read though I guess I'd have a small lean toward calling given about 1.4 to 1 on your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for the reply.

The reason I ended up calling is because I thought he pushes with any J, 10, or KQ here. (Q-9, or two low flush cards I dismissed because he would have dumped it before the flop. Yes, even to a minraise). A-J crossed my mind, but of course I wasn't concerned because I had that tied (although he was freerolling in my case); anyway, I had that on the low spectrum because I thought he would have shoved PF.

It all goes back to the minraise I realize, although it plays out faster post-flop if I raise to 1200 or 1600. Personally, I don't like shoving PF here. I think I am risking too much with the BB in his situation and my image at the table, which widens the SB and BB calling range.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

My bad. I have the converter in my favorites, but I forgot it. I was set to edit my post, but I already had a reply I wanted to tend to. Then I realized I couldn't edit once there had been a reply (either that, or I'm not seeing it), and the opportunity was lost.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t810)
Hero (t4196)
SB (t3827)
BB (t4667)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t800</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t400

Flop: (t1900) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets t3842 (All-in)</font>, Hero calls t3371 (All-in)

Turn: (t9113) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t9113) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Results in gray below:
<font color="#f7f7f7">BB has Ad, Jh (a flush, Jack high)</font>
<font color="#f7f7f7">Hero has Jd, As (a pair of Jacks)</font>

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the reply.

The reason I ended up calling is because I thought he pushes with any J, 10, or KQ here. (Q-9, or two low flush cards I dismissed because he would have dumped it before the flop. Yes, even to a minraise). A-J crossed my mind, but of course I wasn't concerned because I had that tied (although he was freerolling in my case); anyway, I had that on the low spectrum because I thought he would have shoved PF.

It all goes back to the minraise I realize, although it plays out faster post-flop if I raise to 1200 or 1600. Personally, I don't like shoving PF here. I think I am risking too much with the BB in his situation and my image at the table, which widens the SB and BB calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overestimating the risk you'd be putting yourself in with a preflop push. Even a beginner would be hard-pressed to call a push with AJ knowing that the short stack is just about to bust. And even then, there are only 3 hands you're extremely upset to see if he calls (and he held none of the 3). You just got unlucky on the turn and river.

And if you just refuse to push preflop, I think you have to at least raise to 3x. If he calls and pushes the flop in that scenario, your decision is much easier.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
And even then, there are only 3 hands you're extremely upset to see if he calls (and he held none of the 3).

[/ QUOTE ]

3?

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ = 6

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And even then, there are only 3 hands you're extremely upset to see if he calls (and he held none of the 3).

[/ QUOTE ]

3?

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ = 6

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right. My bad.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

I think you're overestimating the risk you'd be putting yourself in with a preflop push. Even a beginner would be hard-pressed to call a push with AJ knowing that the short stack is just about to bust. And even then, there are only 3 hands you're extremely upset to see if he calls (and he held none of the 3). You just got unlucky on the turn and river.

And if you just refuse to push preflop, I think you have to at least raise to 3x. If he calls and pushes the flop in that scenario, your decision is much easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see now that ultimately I have to just step on the gas here. If the UTG is not as short as he is, I shove 99.9% of the time here. I hope people aren't thinking I minraise for fun here. Like I have said, I was playing weak and conceding the re-steal if he was willing to risk it. I had not been minraising at all before this hand. Others had been, and successfully. It was the least risk I could put at the time. I died trying to ensure the money, which is almost as close to all the time as it gets.

Ironically, the conservative route I took ended up costing me. I won't make the same mistake the next time.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

You really should hold off on the results for a bit when you make these threads. I feel like if he didn't hit a flush you would be getting 2x as many "nice call" posts.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I died trying to ensure the money, which is almost as close to all the time as it gets.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said something like this in your original post, as well. Dude, you play less than two games per week. You don't finish in the money "close to all the time," you have an average roi over a range of buyins over a very small sample set. Don't come here posting unconverted hands with results showcasing your bad play and claim you always make the money. Read the faq, post the hand correctly, and ask questions. That sounded perhaps overly harsh. Sorry.

As for the hand, yes you should push this preflop. Postflop, I am calling this push all day, because people at lower buyins will push any piece of this board all day, and you almost always have the best hand. Good call, tough beat, bro.

Re: How -EV is this call?
 

That was very poor word choice on my part. I, by no means, meant that I make the money in tournaments all the time. I don't know my statistics, nor do I know a good program to sign up for and view them. I am hear to learn, and my poker education is always continuing.

What I meant by that sentence is that I will finish in the money (3rd or better) close to all the time in this situation (which is the UTG player having basically no chips, 50% of which go into the pot in the next blind).

My bad on the miscommunication. And I did explain about the hand converter. As you can see, I'm still new to posting on this board. Haven't caught on to all the nuances yet.