Losing streaks
 

Limit players talk about 200-300BB downswings as something quite normal.
What is the equivalent for a winning, say 10% ROI, STT player?
Any general thoughts? Just trying to get a picture of the short term luck factor of the game.

Re: Losing streaks
 

I have had two 11 OOTM streaks and a two 30 buyin downswings and I haven't really played all that much (1300 tourneys). My overall ROI is 13%.

Re: Losing streaks
 

Thanks Taipan. Anyone out there with a larger sample size?

Re: Losing streaks
 

Sharkscope's great for this sort of thing. Just looking at FTP it tells me I've had two 11, a 12 and a 13 game out of the money stretch (1800+ games, 14% ROI, actually nearer to 10% at limits that matter)

Re: Losing streaks
 

I had a 30 bi downswing at the Party 55s. That was sweet.

Re: Losing streaks
 

I had a 24 strt out of the money streak. Was ridiculous.

Re: Losing streaks
 

Not sure how many games I played, but probably around 15k at different sites and buy-ins and I had 22 straight OOTM and dropped 108 buy-ins at games I'm pretty sure I had around 10 % ROI.

108 buy-in drop was over about 1150 games, giving me a ROI of -12 %. First 40 buy-ins was at games where my ROI probably only were 4-5 %, but then I moved down and played Party $55 and this was 15 months ago when the games were really soft and I'm pretty sure my true ROI was close to 10 % and I dropped 90 buy-ins, but mixing in some $22 made the total drop only 108 buy-ins.

22 straight OOTM was October last year, just before Party banned US, so soft games and buy-in only $22 so pretty sure I was above 10 % ROI.

But this is just what happened to me, in theory it can be worce.

Re: Losing streaks
 

Quetzo- 108 buyin downswings should just not happen to a winning player. I find it hard to believe that you were playing 10% ROI poker and just getting unlucky to the tune of 108 buyins.

Re: Losing streaks
 

14 OOTM streak at party..Brought my ROI deeply down to 5%

Re: Losing streaks
 

Is it possible that an OTM run of 20+ games variance is only a (minor) contributor to the situation?

At the $6.50's my longest OTM streak is around 21, at the $16's it is 7. I've play about 20% more games at the $16's than the $6.50. When a losing streak starts in the $6.50's I've pushed onward possibly even adding tables. I've never really taken the time to get in tune with why "I'm running bad." With the $16's I've taken more time to reflect, taken small breaks, drop tables and got back on track quicker.

However I'm really a low volume/recreational player so user mileage may vary for the rest of you. My main point is that if you are in the middle of a bad run it most likely is adding a cloud or two to your though process. Possibly a small break, even to get a cup of coffee and chill for 15 to 20 minutes would shorten the length of these downswings.

Re: Losing streaks
 

I have run well at the Party 55s recently for an ROI of 16.8% over the last 950 tourneys and I STILL have had 9 20BI downswings over that time with an OOM streak of 18 straight at one point. I have broken even over my last 300 as well. It's mind-boggling how many key flips you can lose in a session. I even had 5 straight tourneys when I busted out 10th, which given my 10th place finishes are only 5.4% is pretty amazing. Coolers each time, all within 20 minutes.

Re: Losing streaks
 

Ive played 7,000 + sngs according to Sharkscope and Id say I have hit 20-30 bi downswings 3 times now.

Re: Losing streaks
 

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Possibly a small break, even to get a cup of coffee and chill for 15 to 20 minutes would shorten the length of these downswings.

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Adding posts at STT are a good coffee break idea too. I can regain focus and get input right away.

Re: Losing streaks
 

I've had several 20+ out of the money streaks over the last 1500 games and several 30-40 buy in downswings... all $22/$33 speeds on party. Had some pretty sick upswings too though [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] ROI is 9.5% ATM.

Re: Losing streaks
 

read the FAQ. click on the link to RVG's simulator.

Re: Losing streaks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quetzo- 108 buyin downswings should just not happen to a winning player. I find it hard to believe that you were playing 10% ROI poker and just getting unlucky to the tune of 108 buyins.

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I had a 110 buyin downswing at the 60's and my ROI at them is definitely over 5% and my true ROI is probably closer to 10% in them. I laugh at anyone that thinks a 30 buyin downswing is remotely a bad downswing.

Re: Losing streaks
 

This thread has come at the just the right time for me and made me feel a bit better - ive just had 14 game OOTM run in the Stars $20s, won most of it back, then had a 12 game OOTM run.

I know this sounds pretty pathetic for you multitablers who probably play this many in a couple of hours but for the casual player its pretty depressing when you realise you havent cashed for a week or two

Re: Losing streaks
 

Ditch Digger, agree in general 110 buyin downswing is possible. The 30 sort of range was in context of continuous OTM streak, at least that was my take on it.

Re: Losing streaks
 

Sharkscope says I've had a 21 OOTM run (I have 28,475 SNG's in Sgarkscope). I also vividly remember dropping 40 buyins in one night at the $16's a couple of months ago, but I know I was tinkering with my game and probably tried something that was just dumb.

When I'm playing regularly (100+ SNG's/day), I have about 80-85% winning days, ranging from -12 BI to +38 BI/night. This is mostly at the $16's, FWIW.

Re: Losing streaks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quetzo- 108 buyin downswings should just not happen to a winning player. I find it hard to believe that you were playing 10% ROI poker and just getting unlucky to the tune of 108 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a 110 buyin downswing at the 60's and my ROI at them is definitely over 5% and my true ROI is probably closer to 10% in them. I laugh at anyone that thinks a 30 buyin downswing is remotely a bad downswing.

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I guess I'll have to experience something like this before I will believe it. My 24 BI downswing seemed beyond mathematical all the [censored] that was happenining to me. To have 4-1/2 of these downswings in a row (I realize you're not talking about a 108 OOTM streak but still) would push me over the edge. I would definitely quit poker.

Re: Losing streaks
 

before locking this i just want to LOL at ditchdigger saying he has a different ROI than his "true" roi, over some significant enough sample to have a 110 bi downswing.

so now that that's done,

locked.