200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

200 6 max on Stars. Villain is unknown. Note that 9 times out of 10 I am raising this flop. I felt that villain was very weak, however. Does my underrepping my hand here turn this river into a call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($78.40)
SB ($198)
BB ($168.70)
UTG ($325.25)
Hero ($421.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($39) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25, UTG calls $25.

River: ($89) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $55, UTG raises to $282.25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $199

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

This seems like an easy call to me. Looks more like AK/AQ than TJ or a bigger set.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

i honestly think you should be raising this flop 10 out of 10 as opposed to 9. its very drawy and theres a good chance villain has caught some piece of it.

also, bet more on turn and river. as played, itd be very useful to have an idea of how the villain plays or some of his stats. its close against an unknown, but you really should be correcting your play on the earlier streets. this hand was pretty much butchered.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

mmm... I kinda torn on this one. looks like JT, but could also be rivered aces up. I always cautious w deep stacks, and villain is unknown.

Really need a read, but villain's river line is super strong. Man I would call but expect to see nuts here quite often IME

BTW RAISE FLOP

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Well, raise flop. But you know that allready. You are deep and you really want to build a pot right now. Also bet more on turn.

Unless he's really bluffy I'd also fold that cr on river. It really looks like the nuts to me.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

terrible imo.

due to the high chance of you having a flush draw, vil should be raising TJ/sets on the turn.

river is a very easy call

also, both bets should be slightly bigger imo

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
due to the high chance of you having a flush draw, vil should be raising TJ/sets on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would expect JT to bet/riase turn here. Its not impossible, but just odd for villain to cbet, hit an inside straight, then slow down on turn.

a decent player w JT would jam turn. this make it easier to call river

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

[ QUOTE ]

river is a very easy call


[/ QUOTE ]

I cant see anyone c/r this river with a worse hand for value. Villain plays this hand wierd whatever he has but I still dont think this river is a bluff.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Your bet sizing is very small. Obv you need to raise the flop. Aside from that you should be raising close to pot sized on such a drawy board, then come the river his shove will likely be around a min raise and you can make the crying call easily.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

scv, villains river shove can be with a worse hand (eg top2) if he's a bad enough player.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

yeh i can quite easily see villain with AK, AQ here

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Raise flop and bet more everywhere.

River is probably a call but not a fistpump -style call.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Oh wow. I think this might be a call.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

raise flop, bet more on turn as played, river fold is fine, JT got there and he might have a higher set.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Against an unknown I call this river. If I know villain is decent it's probably a fold.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

But he cant possibly have JT here after calling turn. Buddylist if he does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
But he cant possibly have JT here after calling turn. Buddylist if he does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

JT is a double gutter on the flop, FWIW.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But he cant possibly have JT here after calling turn. Buddylist if he does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

JT is a double gutter on the flop, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]
exactly, and Hero bet just a little more than 1/2 pot on the turn so calling there with it is not strange either.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

wow. folding this is terrible

JT would be my number 1 concern, but, he should've raised turn if he's half decent, calcalclalcsl

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Tough spot. If the villian doesn't have JT, don't you think that he would worry that the hero has it? If he was worried about the straight (which would fit hero's play), I think he would just call the river, even with 2 pair.

My first instinct was to say call, but I think it's a good fold. Unless he's a horrible player, the villian has the nuts.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But he cant possibly have JT here after calling turn. Buddylist if he does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

JT is a double gutter on the flop, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesn't really matter what JT was on the flop cause villain CB and hero flat called.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

Without reads or history this is never an easy decision. Like everyone says, by betting small you've underepped you're hand. If villian is decent or better, this is either air or nuts. He might have seen you're small betting as weak and you're river as a block. Either way I think he's a solid player bc I don't see a donk EVER making a c/r on this river whether he has the nuts or not. This is really close and really depends on images and table dynamics but I think folding is the better decision.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

WHAT ON EARTH ARE YOU THINKING ON THE FLOP?????

POT POT POT


And yea, as others have said, TJ raises turn, so this looks AX 2-pr and a call looks good.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

i never fold my set vs 1 player only if 4 cards of the same suite or to obv straight.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

have to call.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

This is either AA or JT but it's AK or AQ a lot of the time too.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

raise flop, more on turn.

As played, I think its neutral so I call...looks like JT though.

Re: 200 NL: Folding my set deep
 

I hate how you played this hand.

You didn't raise flop. Then you worsened that mistake by betting only 1/2 pot on the turn.

Then you made it EVEN worse by betting < 1/2 on the river.

Then you made my head assplode by folding.

Good players get all-in when they flop sets vs. UTG raisers to make up for the money they lose sometimes when they call and have the 2nd best hand or when a bluff goes wrong. They earn 100+ BBs with their sets so overall, they're making money.

Bad players earn like 40BBs with their sets. Since they lose 40BBs or so with 2nd best hands/bluffs gone wrong, they don't earn very much in the long run.

And 150BBs isn't really deep.

From the get-go in this hand, you should have been trying to get the stacks in the middle. Raising flop is pretty mandatory, imho, but given you didn't, you should be betting more like 4/5th pot on the turn, at least.

And, someone said villain can c/r this river with 2pair "if he's bad enough".

Lol. If villain's range for c/ring this river is only JT and AA then he really sucks. Good players merge ranges here , and a good player could be bluffing 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] since your bet obviously looks weak.