FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

Both villains are unknowns. No reads except that the shortie lost most of his stack in an early coinflip.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1215
UTG+1: t1345
Hero: t1695
MP2: t1350
MP3: t1530
CO: t3015
Button: t1380
SB: t1230
BB: t740

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls t60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t90)</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t220</font>, 5 folds, BB calls t160 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t370)</font>, UTG calls t160 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t530)</font>.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t690, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in t520</font>, UTG calls t520 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1210)</font>, Hero??

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

Well what do we know :

* BB is allin with any 2
* UTG has a piece of the flop

Turbo push.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

Push. Folding AA here in a turbo is bad.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

I think I push, esp. against 2 unknowns, but I'm not sure I'm excited about it despite it being the right decision. If you get outdrawn, though, or are up against a set, so be it. If you win...coast to the money.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

But are we really a favorite to win given that we have no re-draws besides a backdoor straight? I am kind of doubting that. I see a straight draw, a flush draw and a possible 2 pair (JQ on board) that people love to limp with. I am not sure that a push is so clear cut here. I did end up folding here, btw [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

First off, I think I like a little bigger raise pre-flop. With one limper in already, I like to raise 5 or 6 times the BB with these premium hands. I'd be glad to take down the 150 chips right there, and don't want to see more than one opponent. As played, I would push here also. BB could have any two, and AQ or KK are highly likely for UTG. I like my chances against either of those hands. If he has a flush draw and draws out, then so be it. You got your chips in with the best of it.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

please get it in. AA is the nuts.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Both villains are unknowns. No reads except that the shortie lost most of his stack in an early coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this read - the guy has 700 chips and puts 220 of them in preflop by cold calling OOP lol_moranaments.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But are we really a favorite to win given that we have no re-draws besides a backdoor straight? I am kind of doubting that. I see a straight draw, a flush draw and a possible 2 pair (JQ on board) that people love to limp with. I am not sure that a push is so clear cut here. I did end up folding here, btw [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sort of with you here--I don't think we're ahead by that much. I think we're ahead most of the time at the moment, but not by much for the reasons you stated above--two pairs, flush and straight draws. Best case scenario you're dominating BB's smaller pp and UTG has a flush draw. I think the shove is the right decision, because if you win you're pretty much set (you're ahead right now in all likelihood) to make the money, but I do agree that it's not a clear cut deccision.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

yeah not worried about that guy, but rather what's UTG kept overcalling with. that's what I could not get my head around.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both villains are unknowns. No reads except that the shortie lost most of his stack in an early coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this read - the guy has 700 chips and puts 220 of them in preflop by cold calling OOP lol_moranaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe hes slowplaying aces?????

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah not worried about that guy, but rather what's UTG kept overcalling with. that's what I could not get my head around.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ? AQ? diamond draw?

there is no way i fold here. ship it in and hope you dodge the 8 outs to triple up.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

I snap call. If I am behind or get outdrawn, so be it. This push is still a very +EV move. BB can literally have as little as bottom pair or a gutshot. UTG looks most likely to be a draw, but could be top pair as well. I would put him on a hand like KQ (limp early position, just call your raise etc). Even if UTG has flopped two pair or something, you have 5 outs on the flop and 8 on the turn.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

right - but remember that this is against 2 opponents. so it is likely to be more like 14-18 outs for them combined.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be glad to take down the 150 chips right there, and don't want to see more than one opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am never "glad" about taking down 150 chips preflop with AA in any SNG, let alone a turbo. I'd rather have callers and get stacked sometimes. Or lots of times, lately.

Re: FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
right - but remember that this is against 2 opponents. so it is likely to be more like 14-18 outs for them combined.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. and even if bb does win and you win against utg, you still make 500 chips and you knock out 1 player.

Seriously, if you're folding in spots like this, you're giving up massive equity.